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Villa’s Race for Europe 22/23


messi11

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The six games from Everton to Forest, I was hoping for about 10 points (maybe 12). We’re up to 7 with three left so can’t be too unhappy.

Europe isn’t going to happen, but it’s a better target to aim for than just a top ten finish.

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If we and the teams above us finish on our current trajectory (counting only Unai's time for us), I believe we'd finish 8th. We're not catching Brighton, Newcastle or Liverpool. But Brentford and Fulham are certainly there to be caught.

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On 25/02/2023 at 22:30, tomsky_11 said:

Also, about four or five games ago I had a go at predicting the remaining results for the teams currently 4th down to us in 11th. I think I had us in 9th on 56 points then.

As of now the remaining predicted results give the following finishing table:

4th Liverpool 67

5th Newcastle 64

6th Spurs 62

7th BHA 61

8th Brentford 54

9th Chelsea 53

10th VILLA 53

11th Fulham 51

Updated with recent results:

4th Newcastle 66

5th Liverpool 64

6th Spurs 63

7th BHA 61

8th Chelsea 54

9th Brentford 53

10th VILLA 53

11th Fulham 51

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Just another way of saying “Hey, I think we’re doing ok”, but if you remove the Man City match from consideration, we‘ve picked up the exact same number of points as them over the other 12 games since Emery arrived. Same record - won 7, drawn 2.

And because it’ll provoke the question how do the opposition compare, here you go.

Villa

Man Utd, Brighton, Liverpool, Spurs, Wolves, Leeds, Southampton, Leicester, Arsenal, Everton, Palace, West Ham.

City 

Fulham, Brentford, Leeds, Everton, Chelsea, Man Utd, Wolves, Spurs, Forest, Bournemouth, Newcastle, Palace.

Edited by Mark Albrighton
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If we reach Europe that will be an excellent bonus, but it shouldn't be considered an expectation or a disappointment if it doesn't happen, because Emery came with ten games of the season already gone, so was handicapped. Last season didn't want judge Gerrard on first ten games as he wasn't here, and same this season with Emery.

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1 hour ago, useless said:

If we reach Europe that will be an excellent bonus, but it shouldn't be considered an expectation or a disappointment if it doesn't happen, because Emery came with ten games of the season already gone, so was handicapped. Last season didn't want judge Gerrard on first ten games as he wasn't here, and same this season with Emery.

Was Gerrard only here for 10 games of the season? Those games were so bad it felt like many many months of rubbish!

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17 minutes ago, ender4 said:

Was Gerrard only here for 10 games of the season? Those games were so bad it felt like many many months of rubbish!

That Gerrard was involved in the current season, feels almost unbelievable in itself - sure has been a long journey this season.

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If we fail to qualify for Europe or even to finish top half, it won't be because we lost Leicester you glue sniffing squish heads, it will be because of those first ten games whilst Gerrard was manager, if you have to sack a manager after ten games then unfortunately one of the consequences is that season overall won't go as well as hoped because obviously been very poor for almost a third of it hence the sacking in the first place, if Emery gets us into Europe or anywhere near will have performed a miracle, frankly would be an overachievment even if he had every game this season as manager.

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3 hours ago, tomsky_11 said:

Updated with recent results:

4th Newcastle 66

5th Liverpool 64

6th Spurs 63

7th BHA 61

8th Chelsea 54

9th Brentford 53

10th VILLA 53

11th Fulham 51

Without any of your work predicting results, or looking up at the top, this is my gut feel as well - I think we will catch Fulham and get top ten, but don’t think we will have quite enough to overtake others.

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Any of Brighton, Fulham, or Brentford could easily see their form drop, all capable of going on bad runs, so I don't think it's beyond the realms of possibility of catching any of those, the trouble is we could just as much see our form drop too. If we can finish top half that will be a good achievement, as will be the first time we've done it in twelve seasons, nothing to celebrate in of itself should be a minimum requirement for a club like ours, but because of the circumstances would be a good step in the right direction.

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Good way of looking at things.

If we average a point a game from now we finish on 47 points so still two better than last season and we aren't finishing lower than 11th with that haul.

Last 12 games we've secured 20 points so 55 points is surely top half and possibly 8th.

Perhaps people will see that as a big ask but we've still had a three match losing run in that spell and won't have to play Man. City or Arsenal again unlike a few just above us.

Some tricky away games for us but then Brentford and Brighton still have plenty of top half away aswell.

What we can't be doing is going away to Brentford and losing or drawing 1-1 at home to Fulham otherwise it does get tough to finish even 10th. Draw at Chelsea would be good aswell and that's achieveable if we defend well.

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On 14/03/2023 at 08:31, useless said:

Any of Brighton, Fulham, or Brentford could easily see their form drop, all capable of going on bad runs, so I don't think it's beyond the realms of possibility …

🫤🫤🫤 The word “could” didn’t. Once again, we seem to be stuck to the bottom of the top, like a mosquito on the league’s arse. 

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Missing out on Europe, but with a good finish to the season would set us up for a real run at things next year. Imho, we are miles away from having the strength to play a European schedule and domestic comps.

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On 14/03/2023 at 12:21, Adam2003 said:

Without any of your work predicting results, or looking up at the top, this is my gut feel as well - I think we will catch Fulham and get top ten, but don’t think we will have quite enough to overtake others.

I think we can over take those two as well.

I think everyone just assumes Chelsea will pull off at some point.

Brighton is just too far off unless they completely collapse.

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Hopefully that was the last away game Brentford will win, that would help a bit.

They have Man. United, Chelsea, Liverpool, Spurs, Brighton and Wolves left on the road so hopefully they just draw the odd game. We certainly can't afford to lose the away game there aswell which usually happens.

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