IrishVilla10 Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 Brentford and Brighton are in with a real chance of getting 7th, I think we’d need to do very well to get above them. Fulham are more likely to lose form. Luckily Chelsea are having a mare it would be nice for one of these teams to get the conference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutByEaster? Posted January 10, 2023 Moderator Share Posted January 10, 2023 4 minutes ago, bobzy said: Any January signings withstanding, I'm not convinced this Newcastle side is a shoe-in for Europe at all. I was thinking more on an ongoing basis. I think this season they're overachieving, but they will keep adding and adding. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomsky_11 Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 On 06/01/2023 at 20:25, AshVilla said: We'd be in top 8 already if we had unai from start of the season. Far too much time wasted on the previous chancer. I'm sure we would, I go further to say top 6 would have been likely right now given where the point are. But that assumes we'd have gotten Unai then, which I don't think is neccessarily guaranteed. Also would have required sacking Gerrard in the summer which, easy to say in hindsight, would have been a tough call after being 9th on form in PL, 7th best scorers and 8th best defence since his arrival. IMO Gerrard went at the most reasonable time and we got a major upgrade, one that certainly still gives us a chance of top 7 this season. 43 minutes ago, NeilS said: I think we can forget European qualification this season, I think our best chance was through the FA cup but that is no longer an option. In the league, whilst not impossible, We require too many teams to drop points I don't think it's teams dropping points that is the issue. Fully expect Brentford, Brighton, Fulham to drop to between 50 and 55 points by end of season. Chelsea is a bigger question mark because of the squad they have and what Potter has shown at Brighton, but things aren't turning around there yet. Bigger issue might be whether 7th or 6th even gets you into Europe. Only 3 of 8 sides left in EFL Cup are likely to finish in top 6 and at most 4 of the last 16 in the FA Cup. 58 minutes ago, NeilS said: and we are not 100% convincing just yet 10 points from 15 is pretty good so are, especially given opposition. 59 minutes ago, NeilS said: We seem to struggle in the games we are expected to win, so with that in mind the next few fixtures will either confirm or disprove that theory. Win our next three games and I might change my opinion on the qualification chances. Not sure we've had enough of these under Emery to judge yet. Wolves maybe the only one at a push, but then local derby, against a new manager for them, and one who knows Emery having already faced him this season. Even with that I'd still expected a win given where they were in the league, but I don't think a point was a disaster, especially when we probably should have won it at the end. We will definitely find out soon though. 8 of our next 11 fixtures (and possibly 9 of 12 depending on reschedule of Leicester game) are against current bottom half sides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishVilla10 Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 38 minutes ago, bobzy said: Any January signings withstanding, I'm not convinced this Newcastle side is a shoe-in for Europe at all. Why? They’ve lost one game all season, have 3rd best goal difference. Played an ugly game against arsenal but it worked. I think they’re a cert for at least europa league 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeilS Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 3 minutes ago, tomsky_11 said: I don't think it's teams dropping points that is the issue. Fully expect Brentford, Brighton, Fulham to drop to between 50 and 55 points by end of season. Chelsea is a bigger question mark because of the squad they have and what Potter has shown at Brighton, but things aren't turning around there yet. Bigger issue might be whether 7th or 6th even gets you into Europe. Only 3 of 8 sides left in EFL Cup are likely to finish in top 6 and at most 4 of the last 16 in the FA Cup. 10 points from 15 is pretty good so are, especially given opposition. Not sure we've had enough of these under Emery to judge yet. Wolves maybe the only one at a push, but then local derby, against a new manager for them, and one who knows Emery having already faced him this season. Even with that I'd still expected a win given where they were in the league, but I don't think a point was a disaster, especially when we probably should have won it at the end. We will definitely find out soon though. 8 of our next 11 fixtures (and possibly 9 of 12 depending on reschedule of Leicester game) are against current bottom half sides. You are quite right 10 points from 15 is a bloody good return considering where we were coming from after Gerrard. I think my doubts are based on the many years of false hopes where I think we have cracked it only to then be bought down to earth quickly with a bump. The FA cup performance and exit was one such bump, which has left me disappointed and has shown that some of shortcomings within the squad are still there. Saying all that, I am very hopeful of what Unai can achieve in the medium to long term with us. I just think we have left ourselves too much to do this year, but would love to be pleasantly surprised at the end of the season. There are no easy games in the PL, but like you say the next few matches could be seen as one of the more favourable run of games you could wish for. If we can win a good chunk of those games and remain unbeaten during that period then the feeling of hope will rise again. I think as a person I do tend to err on the side of caution though, especially when Villa are involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
duke313 Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 18 minutes ago, IrishVilla10 said: Why? They’ve lost one game all season, have 3rd best goal difference. Played an ugly game against arsenal but it worked. I think they’re a cert for at least europa league Yeah, barring a complete collapse they will finish at least in the Europa spots. Top 4 might be just out of reach, I don't think they can sustain this form all season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishVilla10 Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 17 minutes ago, duke313 said: Yeah, barring a complete collapse they will finish at least in the Europa spots. Top 4 might be just out of reach, I don't think they can sustain this form all season. They’ve pretty much sustained it from February 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobzy Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, IrishVilla10 said: Why? They’ve lost one game all season, have 3rd best goal difference. Played an ugly game against arsenal but it worked. I think they’re a cert for at least europa league I think they will probably get European qualification, but just that I don't think they're a shoe-in. Whilst they've only lost 1 game all season (incredible), they've also comfortably drawn more games than anyone else and have won 1 more game than Brighton and Fulham. All it takes is an injury in that defence or a dip in form that almost inevitably happens (and they haven't had yet) and they're catchable. I guess the main reason they qualify for Europe is that they'll probably get more points than the closest other teams bar Liverpool (Fulham, Brighton, Brentford, Chelsea) so it's likely that they finish top 6, but they're just not a shoe-in for me. I don't think that team is that good; it's more that Howe is doing a phenomenal job. Edited January 10, 2023 by bobzy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulC Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 (edited) Newcastle top 4? Well they are still in with a decent chance. I think Man City will win it and Arsenal will finish second. Then its between them, Man U, Spurs and Liverpool for the other 2 spots. Chelsea no chance. Newcastle will defiinately finish in the top 6. We havent even seen a fit ASM yet and then theres Isak and they will strengthen further. Edited January 10, 2023 by PaulC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
messi11 Posted January 10, 2023 Author Share Posted January 10, 2023 (edited) 7th in the league since Emery took over. Lets not panic. Edited January 10, 2023 by messi11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TRO Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 (edited) 4 hours ago, duke313 said: It's mad saying that when we are technically not even halfway through season yet, and only 6 points off 7th. But I think if we did qualify for Europe this season, it would do more harm than good in the long run. We don't have the squad to play in both, and even with new players coming in, I think we would struggle to compete in both the league and Europe next season. I've seen it before when teams qualify for Europe when they aren't ready. Their overall form suffers as they don't have the squad depth like the big 6. Are you watching this team?.....In terms of consistency.....Its sweet & Sour, rinse & repeat. Which is my point...... as an example.............Why keep looking at your bank balance, when you can't save money regularly......The first fix, is to save regularly. This team is so up and down in terms of performances, its folly to keep making predictions. I agree with your second and third lines. But , My observations are: There is not enough quality in the squad, team maybe, but not squad. There are not enough natural defenders in the squad, where defending is their first "go to" attribute. There are not enough leaders in the squad...with a passion to drive the team on. Too many lightweights, that baulk at heavy traffic....as opposed to thriving with the challenge and winning the initiative. Not enough natural aggression, in many of the players.....too many, too easy to slip in to a passive mode. Until some of that is addressed, I don't see much to change....and I don't see Europe as a feasible expectation....but its only my opinion. Edited January 10, 2023 by TRO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TRO Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 (edited) 4 hours ago, messi11 said: Doom and Gloom after 1 shock defeat. I hope you are a man of your word and stick with this sentiment. And not jump back on the European and postive bandwagon when we beat Leeds. Believe I find that comment ridiculous. was you asleep during the first half against Wolves? Was you on Holiday, when we was dismantled at Bournemouth? was you in the toilet, when we conceded after 5 minutes in to the Liverpool game.....or the other game where we led for 80 odd minutes at 1-0 and conceded 2 in the dying minutes? Where was you when, Wolves, bit our arses with 1O minutes to go, under Deano? Did you go to/ watch the Fulham game. sorry for the sarcasm, but your opening line, is provocative/disrespectful to someone, who has supported this club for over 60 years. How many examples of capitulation, do you want? Losing games is part and parcel of the game, capitulating is not.....there is a subtle difference. I watch the play and comment on it, good or bad, I say what I see.....not make up fairy stories in my head, to make me and everyone else, feel good. If I see a good display against Leeds, I will say so, and I will be cock -a -hoop like all fans.....but I will not be making rash promises of a team who has much to prove in terms of consistency.....one game at a time, for me. I accept, we are all anxious to see our team, muster a consistent run of performances, and its more than acceptable to accept a defeat here and there.....but capitulation, NO...I will never accept that....and it has happened too often. There is one thing to comment on a game, and another thing to comment on where we are in terms of cumulative games, its a different narrative, not to be confused. I don't know, where we will finish up, this season and even if we finish in a respectable position, it has no bearing on a game, where the display, is below the standards we expect. Games like that, should be called out. I am a man of my word, and should we beat Leeds, like you, I will rejoice, after a win.......but that does not mean, we have turned the corner on consistency....and it will be a comment on the game, not the season. don't confuse the narrative....right now, Europe is a pipedream. Edited January 10, 2023 by TRO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TRO Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 4 hours ago, OutByEaster? said: Qualification for Europe in the league is going to get very tough with Newcastle's rise - we might have to be better than Spurs just to make the Europa Conference league. It's going to be very tough, without a semblance of consistency.....The Wolves and Liverpool games showed that....I won't mention the cup game. We are currently, not better than Fulham or Brighton, never mind Newcastle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVByrne Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 1 hour ago, messi11 said: 7th in the league since Emery took over. Lets not panic. We used the same with Gerrard when he won 4 of his first 6 games. With great performances in defeat to City and Liverpool. From Brentford on the new manager bounce had subsided and the inherent inconsistency and lack of application from this team returned. It remains to be seen if this will happen to Emery too. It appears likely it will however based on the last two performances. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tomaszk Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 2 hours ago, messi11 said: 7th in the league since Emery took over. Lets not panic. I've got PTSD from people screaming that about Gerrard's Villa when we were playing like a load of blindfolded chimps week after week. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TRO Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 2 hours ago, messi11 said: 7th in the league since Emery took over. Lets not panic. Small sample....despite being encouraging. SG had 12 points after 6 games....that was equally encouraging, at the time. just saying. Consistency is this teams Achilles Heel....lets see what unfolds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TRO Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 17 minutes ago, CVByrne said: We used the same with Gerrard when he won 4 of his first 6 games. With great performances in defeat to City and Liverpool. From Brentford on the new manager bounce had subsided and the inherent inconsistency and lack of application from this team returned. It remains to be seen if this will happen to Emery too. It appears likely it will however based on the last two performances. Beat me to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
messi11 Posted January 10, 2023 Author Share Posted January 10, 2023 39 minutes ago, TRO said: I find that comment ridiculous. was you asleep during the first half against Wolves? Was you on Holiday, when we was dismantled at Bournemouth? was you in the toilet, when we conceded after 5 minutes in to the Liverpool game.....or the other game where we led for 80 odd minutes at 1-0 and conceded 2 in the dying minutes? Where was you when, Wolves, bit our arses with 1O minutes to go, under Deano? Did you go to/ watch the Fulham game. sorry for the sarcasm, but your opening line, is provocative/disrespectful to someone, who has supported this club for over 60 years. How many examples of capitulation, do you want? Losing games is part and parcel of the game, capitulating is not.....there is a subtle difference. I watch the play and comment on it, good or bad, I say what I see.....not make up fairy stories in my head, to make me and everyone else, feel good. If I see a good display against Leeds, I will say so, and I will be cock -a -hoop like all fans.....but I will not be making rash promises of a team who has much to prove in terms of consistency.....one game at a time, for me. I accept, we are all anxious to see our team, muster a consistent run of performances, and its more than acceptable to accept a defeat here and there.....but capitulation, NO...I will never accept that....and it has happened too often. There is one thing to comment on a game, and another thing to comment on where we are in terms of cumulative games, its a different narrative, not to be confused. I don't know, where we will finish up, this season and even if we finish in a respectable position, it has no bearing on a game, where the display, is below the standards we expect. Games like that, should be called out. I am a man of my word, and should we beat Leeds, like you, I will rejoice, after a win.......but that does not mean, we have turned the corner on consistency....and it will be a comment on the game, not the season. don't confuse the narrative....right now, Europe is a pipedream. Hello sir, we appreciate your support for the last 60 years. You talk about the past a lot. Dean Smith and Gerrard years. I'm sorry but its time to move on. We have Emery Now. He's seen the issues and knows where we need to improve. Let him build and back him. There is no point in supporting any club if you have no (pipe)dreams. We should always be aiming for Europe and improving year by year. With your positive support. WE CAN DO THIS! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keyblade Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 2 hours ago, bobzy said: I think they will probably get European qualification, but just that I don't think they're a shoe-in. Whilst they've only lost 1 game all season (incredible), they've also comfortably drawn more games than anyone else and have won 1 more game than Brighton and Fulham. All it takes is an injury in that defence or a dip in form that almost inevitably happens (and they haven't had yet) and they're catchable. I guess the main reason they qualify for Europe is that they'll probably get more points than the closest other teams bar Liverpool (Fulham, Brighton, Brentford, Chelsea) so it's likely that they finish top 6, but they're just not a shoe-in for me. I don't think that team is that good; it's more that Howe is doing a phenomenal job. They've been on this form for almost a year now. Top 3 most points in the league over the last 12 months if I'm not mistaken. I can't see them dropping out of the top 6 barring a huge collapse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GingerCollins29 Posted January 10, 2023 Share Posted January 10, 2023 The chance for Europe was gone when the bosrd decided to stick with SG as long as we did. This year is all about Emery working out who he can work with in the squad, gradually adding quality and implementing his tactics. Next year is the one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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