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Relegation Avoidance Thread


HanoiVillan

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2 hours ago, villa4europe said:

Now put the £400m in the context of player turnover and what we've actually done in the last 10 years, work out the cost per player... And then you'll know why we are where we are 

Look past the money, it's not a stick to beat the club with 

We should be doing better but this whole "we spent this much" it means nothing 

We spent nearly as much as Liverpool but us spending it on 70 players and them spending it on 10 is somehow lost 

Indeed. How much we have spent in the last 10 years is nothing to do with the current manager. Sherwood / Di Matteo / Bruce etc all spent and wasted lots. 

How that is the current managers fault is beyond me. 

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Just now, Xela said:

Indeed. How much we have spent in the last 10 years is nothing to do with the current manager. Sherwood / Di Matteo / Bruce etc all spent and wasted lots. 

How that is the current managers fault is beyond me. 

That's the other thing, turnover of managers leading to turnover of players, that's why Everton will have a high spending too, klopp has been at Liverpool 6 years so of course his spending will be low as his squad should be settled 

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We're already safe. Even if we were to lose every remaining game, ALL of the following would need to happen:

  • Leeds would need more than 4 points from their remaining 6 games (because of their goal difference);
  • Everton would need 8 points from 7 games, AND;
  • Burnley would need 9 points from 6 games

If any one of those did not happen, we would not be relegated. The chances of all three things happening are already extremely remote, and the chances of us losing every remaining game make it remoter still.

We're safe.

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10 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

We're already safe. Even if we were to lose every remaining game, ALL of the following would need to happen:

  • Leeds would need more than 4 points from their remaining 6 games (because of their goal difference);
  • Everton would need 8 points from 7 games, AND;
  • Burnley would need 9 points from 6 games

If any one of those did not happen, we would not be relegated. The chances of all three things happening are already extremely remote, and the chances of us losing every remaining game make it remoter still.

We're safe.

Burnley would need 3 points from 4 games as they play us twice. If we lost every remaining game (which obviously is highly unlikely) the chances of us getting relegated would be far from remote, Everton getting 8 points from their remaining games would be the only one I'd probably bet against.

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2 hours ago, will87 said:

Burnley would need 3 points from 4 games as they play us twice. If we lost every remaining game (which obviously is highly unlikely) the chances of us getting relegated would be far from remote, Everton getting 8 points from their remaining games would be the only one I'd probably bet against.

That’s why it was a massive point. Woth the GD Burnley would probably still need 10 points. 
Well the -13 isn’t that much if you consider a run of 6 losses, twice in a 6 pointers, could easily lose by a big results against league leaders. 
I agree that another win against Norwich would be perfect. We’d probably have a say after that in terms of the title and the relegation without any stress.

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That was a very important point today I feel. Still need a few more to be sure of course but at least that run of defeats has been stopped and we've started to put the brakes on our rapid slide down the table. Now we need a couple of wins from the Two Burnley games + Palace & Norwich at home. That would put us on 43 points. I think 43 - 47 is looking do-able. 

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So we are still not mathematicaly safe, there is still a scenario where we can be relegated. 

If we lost all our remaining games we would go down, but that is Very unlikely! 

Everton have to play Liverpool, Chelsea and Arsenal. Only winnable games are Brentford, Watford Leicester and Palace. 

I think they will get 10 points final points total 39 points

 

Leeds have to play City, Chelsea and Arsenal. Only winnable games are Brighton, Brentford and Palace. 

Think they will get 9 points final points total 42

 

Burnley have us twice, Suprzzz, Newcastle, Watford and Wolves. 

Think they will get 10 points so final points total 38 points. 

So as long as we beat Norwich that would be 40 points. We should win 1 vs Burnley so I will say 43 points will be a final tally

Time for fantasy island If it went down to the last day we play City, imagine the scenes as Jack scores the winner that secures the title for City and dooms us... Thankfully that will never happen.... 

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i know we are 6/8 points ahead of Burnley/Everton right now, but i would be a lot happier if we managed to quickly pick up a few more points so im not looking over my shoulder.

I wouldnt "expect" us to be in trouble right now, but who knows if Burnley or Everton put a wacky run together.....

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