Energy Bills

[AVFC_Hitz]

30 minutes ago, Demitri_C said:

So you guys that were around in the 70s, as was before my time how was it during the blackouts when the miners went in strike?

If blackouts happen in the winter can we survive? As i dont see how as back then when it went 3 day weeks under heath, we can run as a coubtry if that were to happen?

Right, I'll tell you an anecdote! In 1975 I was catching the London train from Crewe station. It was very crowded, I found myself in a last-minute rush for the one remaining seat with a tall, good-looking man with collar-length hair, it was the seventies - buckaroo! When I sat down on the chair, I looked up and realised it was none other than Peter Purves! It was at the height of his Blue Peter fame! He said "You jammy bastard!" and quick as a flash, I replied, "Don't be blue, Peter!" Needless to say, I had the last laugh, now **** off!

[sidcow]

I was just wondering about how this will play out in winter. 

Obviously the bills we are currently paying and will pay are all based on usual usage. 

This Winter people are going to be SO much more vigilant about turning stuff off. Everyone is going to be turning heating down to the bare minimum. 

This will be happening all over Europe. 

Maybe consumption will be materially so much lower demand may not push prices up to what they would traditionally expect. 

I know my thermostat will be knocked down another degree or 2 and come on and off that much earlier and later. 

We'll just have to wear jumpers more around the house.  I'm expecting my usage to be far lower than normal. 

And at the end of the day remember it's not just your own pocket you help by using less, it also helps those poor buggers in Eastern Europe who will have it even worse than us. 

Edited August 11, 2022 by sidcow

[bielesibub]

9 minutes ago, sidcow said:

I was just wondering about how this will play out in winter. 

Obviously the bills we are currently paying and will pay are all based on usual usage. 

This Winter people are going to be SO much more vigilant about turning stuff off. Everyone is going to be turning heating down to the bare minimum. 

This will be happening all over Europe. 

Maybe consumption will be materially so much lower demand may not push prices up to what they would traditionally expect. 

I know my thermostat will be knocked down another degree or 2 and come on and off that much earlier and later. 

We'll just have to wear jumpers more around the house.  I'm expecting my usage to be far lower than normal. 

And at the end of the day remember it's not just your own pocket you help by using less, it also helps those poor buggers in Eastern Europe who will have it even worse than us. 

In my head I would cynically see that lower demand / less usage would lead to less profits, which in turn would make prices go up, to maintain profit, which will then make inflation even worse.

[AVFC_Hitz]

13 minutes ago, sidcow said:

it also helps those poor buggers in Eastern Europe who will have it even worse than us. 

Thankyou

[sidcow]

Just now, bielesibub said:

In my head I would cynically see that lower demand / less usage would lead to less profits, which in turn would make prices go up, to maintain profit, which will then make inflation even worse.

No, less demand will only lower prices. They will definitely NOT be raising prices if they find themselves having to store unsold gas. 

[stuart_75]

13 hours ago, sidcow said:

Just watch trading places. We're currently in the middle of a very bad gas harvest (because Russia has turned the taps off) so Duke and Duke and others are desperately trying to buy all the gas options which are rocketing as there isn't enough gas to go around. 

Unfortunately this isn't something fabricated by Valentine and Winthorpe so there is no sudden price plunge about to happen. 

Shall I hold on to all those Pork Bellies I bought last week? I was looking to offload them sharpish and make a killing.

[sidcow]

1 minute ago, stuart_75 said:

Shall I hold on to all those Pork Bellies I bought last week? I was looking to offload them sharpish and make a killing.

Definitely go long on pork bellies. 

[Demitri_C]

Can see more fire hazards. People lighting fires in their gardens to keep warm

[bielesibub]

31 minutes ago, sidcow said:

No, less demand will only lower prices. They will definitely NOT be raising prices if they find themselves having to store unsold gas. 

Oh yeah, the surplus supply of unsold gas, assuming they've not planned for a drop in demand I guess - I'm no economic boffin, just a grunt who is being bled dry of his medical insurance.

[The Fun Factory]

1 hour ago, AVFC_Hitz said:

Right, I'll tell you an anecdote! In 1975 I was catching the London train from Crewe station. It was very crowded, I found myself in a last-minute rush for the one remaining seat with a tall, good-looking man with collar-length hair, it was the seventies - buckaroo! When I sat down on the chair, I looked up and realised it was none other than Peter Purves! It was at the height of his Blue Peter fame! He said "You jammy bastard!" and quick as a flash, I replied, "Don't be blue, Peter!" Needless to say, I had the last laugh, now **** off!

I don't think anecdotes are your forte.

[sidcow]

29 minutes ago, bielesibub said:

Oh yeah, the surplus supply of unsold gas, assuming they've not planned for a drop in demand I guess - I'm no economic boffin, just a grunt who is being bled dry of his medical insurance.

Just to be clear I don't think there will be surplus gas, I'm just pontificating that current price expectations are presumably based on usual historical demands but I'm pretty sure there will be different usage this winter. Maybe that's already priced in, who knows. 

Edited August 11, 2022 by sidcow

[Sid4ever]

Bloomberg currently projected wholesale spot prices for both gas and electricity are staggering for November and December.

[chrisp65]

1 hour ago, sidcow said:

Just to be clear I don't think there will be surplus gas, I'm just pontificating that current price expectations are presumably based on usual historical demands but I'm pretty sure there will be different usage this winter. Maybe that's already priced in, who knows. 

Might it depend largely on the temperature / weather next winter?

A mild, wet, wish washy winter and domestic consumption could be down on average. A prolonged spell of snow on the ground and howling winds, not so good.

I know one thing, a lot of people will be re evaluating working from home and having the heating and the lights on all day, using their own power for the laptop and flicking their own kettle on every 90 minutes. There are detailed calls to be done on the cost of the commute versus the cost of the wfh.

 

[lapal_fan]

Ragnorok is coming, just make sure you set your thermostats to 20, 21 at a push  

[Milfner]

17 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

 

I know one thing, a lot of people will be re evaluating working from home and having the heating and the lights on all day, using their own power for the laptop and flicking their own kettle on every 90 minutes. There are detailed calls to be done on the cost of the commute versus the cost of the wfh.

 

 

I just had this exact conversation with my partner. We're planning to make sure we WFH/go to the office on the same day so that we're not just paying for one person to stay warm.  Dreading this winter. We live in a Victorian semi and the house is an absolute sieve. 

Edited August 11, 2022 by Milfner

[sidcow]

19 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

Might it depend largely on the temperature / weather next winter?

A mild, wet, wish washy winter and domestic consumption could be down on average. A prolonged spell of snow on the ground and howling winds, not so good.

I know one thing, a lot of people will be re evaluating working from home and having the heating and the lights on all day, using their own power for the laptop and flicking their own kettle on every 90 minutes. There are detailed calls to be done on the cost of the commute versus the cost of the wfh.

 

It costs me £5 to get to and from work.  Probably break even.  To be fair even in the deep winter last year I didn't put the heating on that much in the day.  House stayed warm enough after the morning blast and I saw it through till the kids came home from school.

I don't think an extra couple of hours will cost £5 even at estimates rates.  we'll see.

Plus Mrs Sidcow would also have to go in as well.  She's more often than not here is I am not.

 

For sure though we need a warm winter.

Edited August 11, 2022 by sidcow

[chrisp65]

3 minutes ago, Milfner said:

 

I just had this exact conversation with my partner. We're planning to make sure we WFH/go to the office on the same day so that we're not just paying for one person to stay warm.  Dreading this winter. We live in a Victorian semi and the house is an absolute sieve. 

 

2 minutes ago, sidcow said:

It costs me £5 to get to and from work.  Probably break even.  To be fair even in the deep winter last year I didn't put the heating on that much in the day.  House stayed warm enough after the morning blast and I saw it through till the kids came home from school.

I don't think an extra couple of hours will cost £5 even at estimates rates.  we'll see.

Plus Mrs Sidcow would also have to go in as well.  She's more often than not here is I am not.

 

For sure though we need a warm winter.

 

Our house is 1920’s so its brick cavity wall construction without insulation, on the top of a hill with views of the sea. Lovely views. But bloody hell any bad weather and we might as well just open the front and back doors and let it go straight through the house.

There are just the two of us here now which is going to help, but we have very different ideas of when its cold. I’ll still be in a tee shirt for most months whereas the other half will be breaking out the jumpers in the next few weeks I’d expect.

Having a smart meter where it can be seen has been really useful, you soon work out what costs and what doesn’t. One of the main outcomes is that we’re getting an air fryer! No more 25 minutes at gas 7 for two portions of chips. 

But yes, picking a joint WFH rota is a good call. My missus works walking distance from the house so there is no commute time or expense there, whereas I can be pretty much anywhere any day of the week. Which makes co-ordinating a bit tricky. But we’re trying to get an agreed set of probably in days and probably out days.

 

[Demitri_C]

20 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

 

 

Our house is 1920’s so its brick cavity wall construction without insulation, on the top of a hill with views of the sea. Lovely views. But bloody hell any bad weather and we might as well just open the front and back doors and let it go straight through the house.

There are just the two of us here now which is going to help, but we have very different ideas of when its cold. I’ll still be in a tee shirt for most months whereas the other half will be breaking out the jumpers in the next few weeks I’d expect.

Having a smart meter where it can be seen has been really useful, you soon work out what costs and what doesn’t. One of the main outcomes is that we’re getting an air fryer! No more 25 minutes at gas 7 for two portions of chips. 

But yes, picking a joint WFH rota is a good call. My missus works walking distance from the house so there is no commute time or expense there, whereas I can be pretty much anywhere any day of the week. Which makes co-ordinating a bit tricky. But we’re trying to get an agreed set of probably in days and probably out days.

 

Chris, let me tell you your going to LOVE your airflyer. Its all i use. Its cheaper for cooking, quicker and more healthier. 

 

[Genie]

I’m probably looking at about £15 in diesel to go to work and back, plus the wife will be WFH so it won’t work for me sadly as it’s a good idea. 

[bickster]

7 minutes ago, Demitri_C said:

and more healthier. 

I'm honestly trying to restrain myself