DCJonah Posted September 19, 2021 Share Posted September 19, 2021 Stay injury free and we have a good chance of that top half. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_sun_never_sets Posted September 19, 2021 Share Posted September 19, 2021 8-10th for me, which i'd be v happy with. I'm looking at this based on who I think we can finish ahead of. (promoted 3 + palace, newcastle, southampton, burnley, leeds, wolves, brighton). 8th vs 10th depends on whether we can finish above 2 out of arsenal tottenham west ham and everton (which would be a great achievement). There will probably be a surprise team in the mix from the first group i've listed come the end of the season so 9th would represent solid progress and a good season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villalad21 Posted September 19, 2021 Share Posted September 19, 2021 So far this season we lose some and win some. Very midtable ish. Do we have it in us to go on a run like we did last season when we won our first 4 games? That's what it takes if you want to finish top half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa_Vids Posted September 19, 2021 Share Posted September 19, 2021 it has to be top 10 at the very least. We have have a lot quality in the squad now, we are capable of beating anyone in the league. More progress please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaVilla Posted September 19, 2021 Share Posted September 19, 2021 Im torn tbh, i think where we can finish will be very dependent on having our key players available and them developing a good understanding. We are 10% of the way through the season and we haven't managed to be able to field our best 11 yet (or at least the best 11 imo). By key players i mean Bailey, Buendia, Watkins & Ings, ofc thats coupled with the already core players in the first 11. I am really excited to "eventually" see that front 4 firing on all cylinders! (if we ever see it lol) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monkeypuzzle Posted September 19, 2021 Share Posted September 19, 2021 I will be very surprised if Man City, Chelsea, Liverpool and Man Utd don't make the top four. Spurs and Leicester have the quality and depth to make European spots also. Then I think it's a group of Everton, Arsenal, West Ham and us fighting for the European scraps and it simply comes down to form over the season. Clubs like Leeds, Brighton and Wolves have to have exceptional, injury free seasons to get in the top half now. I genuinely believe that out of Everton, West Ham, Arsenal and Villa, we have both the strongest squad and the best first XI. If we can leave early injury problems behind us and play the way we are capable of on a regular basis then I don't see why 7th isn't a real possibility. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaChris Posted September 19, 2021 Share Posted September 19, 2021 2 hours ago, the_sun_never_sets said: 8-10th for me, which i'd be v happy with. I'm looking at this based on who I think we can finish ahead of. (promoted 3 + palace, newcastle, southampton, burnley, leeds, wolves, brighton). 8th vs 10th depends on whether we can finish above 2 out of arsenal tottenham west ham and everton (which would be a great achievement). There will probably be a surprise team in the mix from the first group i've listed come the end of the season so 9th would represent solid progress and a good season. Brighton are going to be that surprise team by looks of it. Very solid start to the season so scoring at times they didn't last year and making a big difference. Will be a good battle with them as soon goes on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JAMAICAN-VILLAN Posted September 19, 2021 Share Posted September 19, 2021 It's these bloomin international breaks which will disrupt us. 8 - 10th/11th probably a safe bet, but I think if we had extensive time to settle, with none of those breaks, and a fully fit squad, anything up to 7th would be possible. IMO Still very early days though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tomaszk Posted September 19, 2021 Share Posted September 19, 2021 5 hours ago, Johnnyp said: This place went giddy last season when we were hovering around the top 4 with games in hand. Let’s not go there because sure enough the people who talk about it will be the ones to kick the team when we finish 10th or so. Of course they will. Because they're wind-ups. 5 hours ago, Johnnyp said: I think we’ll end up 10th. I agree. Round there somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KentVillan Posted September 19, 2021 Share Posted September 19, 2021 (edited) Whereas last season we had a very strong starting XI and then struggled every time a key player was out, I think this season we can handle injuries to most of our players. Just looking at what we could do if a key player got injured: Martinez would be the biggest loss, and I'd like to see us find a better backup than Steer. I like Steer, but Everton were able to fall back on Begovic, who is a genuine PL-quality keeper. Cash out -> Young/Konsa in Konsa out -> Tuanzebe/Hause in Mings out -> Tuanzebe/Hause in Targett out -> Young/Hause/Mings in At DM we have Luiz and Nakamba All our CMs are pretty similar - loads of depth from Ramsey, Sanson, Chukwuemeka, plus Buendia/Traore/Bailey being able to slot in at 10 Any serious injuries to wingers we have AEG or JPB or can go to a wingback system Ings -> just switch to Watkins lone striker Watkins -> switch to Ings lone striker So really the nightmare scenarios are an injury to Martinez, or having Ings + Watkins out at the same time. Anything else we have the squad depth to handle comfortably. Edit: also injuries to both Luiz + Nakamba at same time could be a problem, although I think Smith would switch to a system with no specialist DM if that happened. Edited September 19, 2021 by KentVillan 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter Griffin Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 40 minutes ago, DCJonah said: I don't see the need to call for a balanced discussion because his achievements and the evidence we see aren't balanced at all. And no bias there? Look at the basic facts. From midtable in the Championship to midtable in the PL in 3 seasons with the aid of about 350m invested in players. That would be the expected delivery from any manager given the job. If any manager failed to deliver that then they would have been sacked. Objectivity really does help the quality of discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YouUnastanFren Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 1 minute ago, Peter Griffin said: And no bias there? Look at the basic facts. From midtable in the Championship to midtable in the PL in 3 seasons with the aid of about 350m invested in players. That would be the expected delivery from any manager given the job. If any manager failed to deliver that then they would have been sacked. Objectivity really does help the quality of discussion. In the interest of objectivity could you please explain where the figure of £350m net investment has come from. I can't find a reliable source that would suggest a figure anywhere near that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter Griffin Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 19 minutes ago, Woody1000 said: The problem I have is not just in the manager thread, but other threads in general when it comes to negativity about our players. Maybe it’s because I’m 40 now and I’ve become a father in the last couple of years, but I see so much negativity everywhere. I love Aston Villa and I find that they bring me a lot of joy, even more since I decided to just get behind the team. I used to spend the whole time watching them cussing every missed pass, every missed tackle, but I try to just enjoy it all now. It’s not that there is anything wrong with constructive criticism, or pointing out that a player had a poor game or made a mistake, but it’s the OTT, vitriolic stuff which just blows my mind. I read a lads Twitter feed the other day and counted 94 consecutive tweets about Villa, all negative, another guy had over 60 consecutively negative tweets about us, It’s a similar story on here with certain really negative posters. Im starting to think that maybe this forum isn’t for me anymore, maybe I am a happy clapper but I would just rather be positive about the club. In the last 5 years we’ve had championship football, and almost no football! I’m just trying to enjoy the ride now, wherever it goes. I think most Villa fans are enjoying our football and are enjoying the success we have had over the last few years. Funnily enough, my favourite season since NSWE acquired us and employed CP and DS has been the 1st season when we were in the Championship. The joy of starting off badly, changing manager, having no defenders, Jack injured, getting Mings, 5-5 with Forest, 4-0 and 3-0 against Derby, 10 games unbeaten, playoffs, Baggies in the semi, penalties in the semi and ultimately the sheer joy of promotion. Its one heck of a ride we are on. But I want more, I want Europa, I want Champions League, I want to win the Carabo and FA cups, I want to win the PL and I want Villa to be able to attract the likes of Lukaku, Salah, KDB, Fernandez, Varane and Grealish to our club. I also like discussing Villa with other Villa fans. A Villa forum is perfect for this discussion. But I want to discuss Villa and what is good and what is not so good and what can we improve and what do we think we should do to take the next step. Assessing our games, our players, our manager and looking at how we can do things better is called 'reflection'. It is not moaning it the correct approach to finding solutions and it is what makes debate interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter Griffin Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 (edited) 13 minutes ago, YouUnastanFren said: In the interest of objectivity could you please explain where the figure of £350m net investment has come from. I can't find a reliable source that would suggest a figure anywhere near that. No problem. Also, in the interest of objectivity, why did you add the word 'net' to my comment? My wording was "about 350m invested in players". 'about' showing it is an estimate. 1st Season; About 140m 2nd Season: About 100m 3rd Season: About 100m So about 340m, yes I rounded it and didn't try to get the exact numbers but it is within a few quid of that, it is probably in excess of 350m as we have the loans of Barclay, Drinkwater and Tuanzebe which cost about 20m EDIT: If you are looking for a source you can check Transfermarkt but I am guessing you already know that Edited September 21, 2021 by Peter Griffin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCJonah Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 56 minutes ago, Peter Griffin said: And no bias there? Look at the basic facts. From midtable in the Championship to midtable in the PL in 3 seasons with the aid of about 350m invested in players. That would be the expected delivery from any manager given the job. If any manager failed to deliver that then they would have been sacked. Objectivity really does help the quality of discussion. So he's done everything asked of him and then some. Again, I'm struggling to see where this balance needs to come from. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YouUnastanFren Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 5 minutes ago, Peter Griffin said: No problem. Also, in the interest of objectivity, why did you add the word 'net' to my comment? Because I suspected that was where the bulk of the inaccuracy was coming from. Net investment is actually a tautology as investment is always putting into something, so only the net figure is investment. Eg. If I sell my car for £10k and buy a new one for £5k I haven't invested £5k in my vehicles, I've actually divested £5k from my vehicles. Similarly, Villa haven't invested about £100m this summer, they've actually divested about £24m (according to transfermarkt). I now see from your figures that they are all gross spend figures (although we started with so few assets in the squad the first two figures aren't far off investment figures), each rounded (always upwards and heavily) and then added together to compound the rounding into one mega rounding. At that point I think the figure has lost any meaning. Transfermarkt sourced figure for total investment in the last 3 PL seasons: £205.12m. Obviously this figure is not as exact as the two decimal places would imply but I think it's reasonable to say the investment has actually been about £205m. Considering we started with a squad (of 13 players) worth £63m and now have one worth £367m (both figures from transfermarkt) I think it's fair to say NSWE have got a great ROI while also seeing the club go forward every season. Not an easy feat imho. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Czarnikjak Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 28 minutes ago, YouUnastanFren said: Transfermarkt sourced figure for total investment in the last 3 PL seasons: £205.12m. Obviously this figure is not as exact as the two decimal places would imply but I think it's reasonable to say the investment has actually been about £205m. Apologies to be padentic, but the actual figure will be much higher. According to latest published accounts, £156m was spent on acquiring players registrations in 19/20 season and further £109m in 20/21 season. This will include agent fees etc. I estimate another 80-90m was spent this Summer. Adding up pretty closely to the £350m figure. The source is published on Companies Houses, if you would like to check yourself. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villalad21 Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 1 hour ago, Peter Griffin said: I think most Villa fans are enjoying our football and are enjoying the success we have had over the last few years. Funnily enough, my favourite season since NSWE acquired us and employed CP and DS has been the 1st season when we were in the Championship. The joy of starting off badly, changing manager, having no defenders, Jack injured, getting Mings, 5-5 with Forest, 4-0 and 3-0 against Derby, 10 games unbeaten, playoffs, Baggies in the semi, penalties in the semi and ultimately the sheer joy of promotion. Its one heck of a ride we are on. But I want more, I want Europa, I want Champions League, I want to win the Carabo and FA cups, I want to win the PL and I want Villa to be able to attract the likes of Lukaku, Salah, KDB, Fernandez, Varane and Grealish to our club. I also like discussing Villa with other Villa fans. A Villa forum is perfect for this discussion. But I want to discuss Villa and what is good and what is not so good and what can we improve and what do we think we should do to take the next step. Assessing our games, our players, our manager and looking at how we can do things better is called 'reflection'. It is not moaning it the correct approach to finding solutions and it is what makes debate interesting. What success? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YouUnastanFren Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 4 minutes ago, Czarnikjak said: I estimate another 80-90m was spent this Summer. Adding up pretty closely to the £350m figure. The source is published on Companies Houses, if you would like to check yourself. I only used the source suggested. Also can you provide a link to the first two figures. I can't see them looking through the full published accounts on CH. Also you think the net amount invested this summer was £80-90m? How have you reached this figure? Taking into account sales? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Czarnikjak Posted September 21, 2021 Share Posted September 21, 2021 1 minute ago, YouUnastanFren said: I only used the source suggested. Also can you provide a link to the first two figures. I can't see them looking through the full published accounts on CH. Also you think the net amount invested this summer was £80-90m? How have you reached this figure? Taking into account sales? If you don't want to go through full accounts Swiss Ramble has a good summary: https://threader.app/thread/1386924270526341122 £80-90 was spent on player aqusitions this summer. Obv not "net" spend. I think we can settle that gross spend was over £350m and net spend ~£250m Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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