Team shape, tactics and personnel

[JAMAICAN-VILLAN]

True point as well, bought up on Claret and Blue, which I mention in almost every match thread.

Why the hell, is every kick off and/or restart, a launched ball by Mings and co, usually into no where, straight to the opposition, or out for a throw in?

EVERY, single, time, why?!

[cheltenham_villa]

5 hours ago, Steero113 said:

No, I would have gone Nakamba, SJM and Carney once Ramsey got injured. 

We replaced Jacob with a 36 year old left back in the middle of the park. Its utter madness. Did no one see the Watford game?

And Me, ask Mcginn to play deeper, let Carney play as the ten. 

Or bring on archer or Anwar to play wide. Pull Mcginn back and Buendia as ten. 

Loads of opportunity for players to play in their correct positions.

[tomsky_11]

Some selected stats on who's been on the pitch when we've scored and conceded this season so far:

Mins per goal scored:

Bailey 29

Nakamba 42

Ramsey 54

Young 59

Buendia 59

Luiz 68

El Ghazi 68

Ings 69

Watkins 71

 

Mins per goal conceded:

Luiz 76

Ramsey 61

Hause 44

McGinn 42

Targett 41

Bailey 41

Young 35

Nakamba 26

 

Looks like maybe the Ramsey/Luiz combo in midfield might have quite an impact on our defensive performance. In the last 4 games they've played together only 90 mins, we scored 2 and conceded 1 in that time. Nakamba worrying.

 

 

 

[TomC]

1 hour ago, tomsky_11 said:

Nakamba worrying.

 

 

 

Not really. Look at the other half of your list. Nakamba has very favorable stats on the goal scored end of things; does that make him an attacking juggernaut? No.

That he's high on both lists says that he's played in some wide open matches.

[Kuwabatake Sanjuro]

On 03/11/2021 at 13:52, villabromsgrove said:

When did the long ball punted forward start? Was it about the same time as Cash's long throw in was implemented? The two alterations to "tactics" may be down to McPhee's influence.

We need a new coach/manager who can identify our best players quickly, and coach a shape and pattern of play that gets the ball through to attackers on the ground. I've watched a number of ordinary teams play the ball with precision and accuracy. It shouldn't be beyond us.

There must be someone out there who could definitely improve that part of our game.

During the second half of last season we became a lot more direct, like against Leeds away where it worked a treat in evading their pressing game. There were games pre lockdown in the 19/20 season when backs were against the wall we resorted to it too, I recall a Sheffield Utd game being particularly hard to watch.

The fact that it seems to be our go to tactic now is depressing give the players we have. It may be another reason why the likes of Carney Chukwuemeka might not be too keen on signing a contract. I know it was only youth football but the quality of football shown during our youth cup win and u23s compared to the caveman rubbish the 1st team is dishing out is like night and day.

[TRO]

Whether, I am reading this correctly, I really don't know.....but I am sure I will be corrected if I'm not.

I understand that Dean is happy with his personnel in midfield, while the club( Johan  Lange) want an aggressive, combative, midfielder, in the January Window.

That strikes me as a difference of opinion...that could end up awkward.

Edited November 4, 2021 by TRO

[avfc1982am]

9 minutes ago, TRO said:

Whether, I am reading this correctly, I really don't know.....but I am sure I will be corrected if I'm not.

I understand that Dean is happy with his personnel in midfield, while the club( Johan  Lange) want an aggressive, combative, midfielder, in the January Window.

That strikes me as a difference of opinion...that could end up awkward.

I'd say that Smith will lose that argument and rightly so. If he thinks the midfield as is, is okay then we have a serious problem imo. It's not dynamic or very cohesive imo and hasn't been for a long time.

I'm not sure this is the case though. Why would you not want to upgrade Nakamba, Luiz or McGinn if the opportunity presents itself. 

[TRO]

1 minute ago, avfc1982am said:

I'd say that Smith will lose that argument and rightly so. If he thinks the midfield as is, is okay then we have a serious problem imo. It's not dynamic or very cohesive imo and hasn't been for a long time.

I'm not sure this is the case though. Why would you not want to upgrade Nakamba, Luiz or McGinn if the opportunity presents itself. 

Well, I am not convinced its a given by 100% of the fanbase and reiterating the point, not sure the manager does either.

I have to say its an argument that is exponentially growing legs, and is a popular belief....That an assertive, aggressive, Combative addition, to the squad is whats required.

[GingerCollins29]

Dean has got certain games absolutely bang on with tactics and others so far off the mark. Bizarre

[tomsky_11]

2 hours ago, TomC said:

Not really. Look at the other half of your list. Nakamba has very favorable stats on the goal scored end of things; does that make him an attacking juggernaut? No.

That he's high on both lists says that he's played in some wide open matches.

Yep, it's not a definitive stat by any means and not the biggest sample size. On the face of it though, conceding every 26 minutes when our supposedly most defensive midfielder is on the field doesn't look great. The difference to Luiz from a defensive perspective looks quite stark. And given that both players tend to be utilised as the deepest of the three midfielders, the conceded stat is probably of more relevance.

For more detail on this, its 7 goals scored (2 vs. Watford, 3 vs. Everton, 1 vs. Wolves and 1 vs. WHU) and 11 conceded (3 vs. Watford, 1 vs. Chelsea, 3 vs. Wolves, 4 vs. WHU) in 291 minutes for Nakamba. That Everton game is skewing the goals scored stat quite heavily so it's not so much several wide open games as one decent attacking half very much down to one player in Bailey, and several other poor defensive performances while he was on the pitch. Take away the Everton game and we're a goal every 60mins and conceding every 22mins when he's playing. For someone who's often comes on late to shore up the defensive end that's doesn't look great.

Worth noting individual defensive stats per 90 back up the difference between Luiz and Nakamba. Luiz leads on Interceptions by 4 times, almost twice as many blocks, and more tackles and pressures with better success rates.

[tomsky_11]

And on the subject of Luiz, most of his defensive stats are up on his last two seasons, some significantly so. Interceptions 2/3 times higher, tackle and pressure success up as well. And on the attacking end his xA and shot creating actions are double his previous seasons. Is he turning into the solid ball playing DM we need? Be interesting to see if he maintains these levels through the season. Think we could really do with him back in the team as soon as possible as well!

[TomC]

40 minutes ago, tomsky_11 said:

And on the subject of Luiz, most of his defensive stats are up on his last two seasons, some significantly so. Interceptions 2/3 times higher, tackle and pressure success up as well. And on the attacking end his xA and shot creating actions are double his previous seasons. Is he turning into the solid ball playing DM we need? Be interesting to see if he maintains these levels through the season. Think we could really do with him back in the team as soon as possible as well!

Sorry to repeat what I've said before, but yes. If Deano is going to use the "double pivot," get a pure DM as one pivot and use Dougie as the hybrid pivot/regista/whatever you want to call him. Push McGinn forward or drop him.

[tomsky_11]

8 hours ago, TomC said:

Sorry to repeat what I've said before, but yes. If Deano is going to use the "double pivot," get a pure DM as one pivot and use Dougie as the hybrid pivot/regista/whatever you want to call him. Push McGinn forward or drop him.

I think my point was that many have been calling for a more out and out defensive midfielder to replace Luiz in the deepest midfield role of the three, which is where he has tended to operate for us, and that actually if he maintains his defensive numbers so far this season is he himself actually becoming the type of player we want there? Kamara and Cheik Doucoure are the first two players I could think of that have been suggested/linked for this role, but Luiz defensive numbers are for the most part better than these players this season so far.

Fully agree that the higher McGinn operates the better, mostly because his passing is too erratic for him to play deep. As it stands, I think the McGinn Luiz Ramsey midfield is actually pretty good, with Luiz central and deeper and Ramsey and McGinn up and down either side of him.

 

[JAMAICAN-VILLAN]

14 hours ago, TRO said:

I understand that Dean is happy with his personnel in midfield, while the club( Johan  Lange) want an aggressive, combative, midfielder, in the January Window.

That strikes me as a difference of opinion...that could end up awkward.

Where has this come from?

[CVByrne]

I do feel if Watkins and Ings played in the Mane Salah roles and we had Buendia as a false 9 we might get some results. It'll appear like a 4 3 1 2 type formation. Which can adapt to a 4 3 3 with Buendia wide right. 

I feel we have the squad to be fighting for the top 6 places. We just don't have the manager to get us there.

[It's Your Round]

On 03/11/2021 at 16:44, JAMAICAN-VILLAN said:

True point as well, bought up on Claret and Blue, which I mention in almost every match thread.

Why the hell, is every kick off and/or restart, a launched ball by Mings and co, usually into no where, straight to the opposition, or out for a throw in?

EVERY, single, time, why?!

This has been winding me up for years!! It always happens, I’ve come to believe that it’s planned so that the team can take shape and get in their positions. It’s such a waste of time, I could scream at them. Why not pass the ball to each other and you know, keep possession and all move up the pitch together. They can still draw the other team out that way. 

[Laughable Chimp]

11 hours ago, tomsky_11 said:

Yep, it's not a definitive stat by any means and not the biggest sample size. On the face of it though, conceding every 26 minutes when our supposedly most defensive midfielder is on the field doesn't look great. The difference to Luiz from a defensive perspective looks quite stark. And given that both players tend to be utilised as the deepest of the three midfielders, the conceded stat is probably of more relevance.

For more detail on this, its 7 goals scored (2 vs. Watford, 3 vs. Everton, 1 vs. Wolves and 1 vs. WHU) and 11 conceded (3 vs. Watford, 1 vs. Chelsea, 3 vs. Wolves, 4 vs. WHU) in 291 minutes for Nakamba. That Everton game is skewing the goals scored stat quite heavily so it's not so much several wide open games as one decent attacking half very much down to one player in Bailey, and several other poor defensive performances while he was on the pitch. Take away the Everton game and we're a goal every 60mins and conceding every 22mins when he's playing. For someone who's often comes on late to shore up the defensive end that's doesn't look great.

Worth noting individual defensive stats per 90 back up the difference between Luiz and Nakamba. Luiz leads on Interceptions by 4 times, almost twice as many blocks, and more tackles and pressures with better success rates.

I don't like to shit on others people's use of statistics of football(considering I use them a lot myself), but imo the sample sizes here are just way too little to glean anything from. 291 minutes of football for Nakamba or 203 minutes for Bailey is just no where near enough for it to even suggest anything imo. 

Especially when you're looking at team statistics to measure the importance of players. There are so many variables that go into the result of a single game, the presence of a single player is just one of them. For this kind of comparison to work, you need a large enough sample size that on average, all those other variables cancel each other out enough so that we can control for the effect of the presence of a single player. I'm sorry but 291 minutes of football does not even come close to cancelling all these other factors. 

Edited November 5, 2021 by Laughable Chimp

[TRO]

1 hour ago, JAMAICAN-VILLAN said:

Where has this come from?

just odd reports.

[Blasterpocket68]

54 minutes ago, CVByrne said:

I do feel if Watkins and Ings played in the Mane Salah roles and we had Buendia as a false 9 we might get some results. It'll appear like a 4 3 1 2 type formation. Which can adapt to a 4 3 3 with Buendia wide right. 

I feel we have the squad to be fighting for the top 6 places. We just don't have the manager to get us there.

Ings and Watkins are not Mane Or Salah , different types of players. 
 

we’re no where near the top six  with any manager in charge. We’re desperately short in midfield . 

 

[tomsky_11]

1 hour ago, Laughable Chimp said:

I don't like to shit on others people's use of statistics of football(considering I use them a lot myself), but imo the sample sizes here are just way too little to glean anything from. 291 minutes of football for Nakamba or 203 minutes for Bailey is just no where near enough for it to even suggest anything imo. 

Especially when you're looking at team statistics to measure the importance of players. There are so many variables that go into the result of a single game, the presence of a single player is just one of them. For this kind of comparison to work, you need a large enough sample size that on average, all those other variables cancel each other out enough so that we can control for the effect of the presence of a single player. I'm sorry but 291 minutes of football does not even come close to cancelling all these other factors. 

TBF I did add those caveats to my post. And sure we probably can't read too much into it long term. But in terms of possible reasons for where we are this season so far and the argument that availability issues have affected us significantly, we can only go on these first ten games. I don't think its nothing that we've conceded 3 more goals in less than half the time when Nakamba is in the DM role compared to Luiz. I've also just realised the only time we haven't conceded with Nakamba on the pitch this season was the only time he has played alongside Luiz.