AV82 Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 (edited) I want Smith to stay and work on things but I just can't understand why we're rolling the ball out to Hause and expecting him to drive forward and pick a pass to start an attack. He can't do it and he definitely can't do it when McGinn is hiding behind Declan Rice. Despite our apparent intention to play it out from the back none of our players move into space to simply show for the ball. Time and time again we've seen an incisive pass driven into McGinn who swivels, carries the ball forward and sparks a move in the final third. Why aren't we doing that? The players are completely static, often offloading the ball 5 yards to a teammate and then standing still. I just don't understand. I thought Smith was tactically minded but none of the above lends itself to that and when plan A (which doesn't seem like much of a plan) doesn't work we panic and pump the ball long. Okay.. let's try the long ball, sure, that could work.. right? Then why in McGrath's empty pint glass are we smashing long balls before a forward has made his run? Countless times we hit the ball long, the camera pans and Bailey or Watkins are chasing the Wet Spam player to the ball. We can't blame Smith for McGinn's inability to control a ball today but we can and should question his approach to the game, it's not good enough and it genuinely looks like the players have no idea what they're meant to be doing. When I see Buendia motion to the midfield to press it reeks of a team lacking cohesion. Edited October 31, 2021 by AV82 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villalad21 Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 Guess this gives him an excuse to revert back to 5-3-2... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
M_Afro Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 We have got a decent squad of players but it’s just a bit unbalanced. Sign 3 or 4 players in key areas and we would be really good. One centre mid (2 if I was being really greedy), a 10 and a left back and we would be sorted. I’d happily let a few go to make that happen even if it was some of the so called big hitters like Ings and McGinn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avfc1982am Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 Team shape tactics and personnel.....Mmm.....Shit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keener window-cleaner Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 Today I would have played a 4-2-3-1 with McGinn and Nakamba as the holding midfielders, Bailey, Buendia and AEG behind Watkins. That would have been a balanced team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVByrne Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 I agree, 4 2 3 1 is the only option now as we need the two holding midfielders to help stop the rot defensively. Luiz/McGinn and then we can then play Bailey, Buendia, Traore, Watkins - or Watkins Ings Bailey with Buendia as a 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MentalM Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 Have we spent so much time with McPhee on set pieces we forgot everything else on the pitch? Cant pressure, cant pass, cant make the right decisions. I cant recognise this team from the team one year ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villalad21 Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 (edited) 3 minutes ago, MentalM said: Have we spent so much time with McPhee on set pieces we forgot everything else on the pitch? Cant pressure, cant pass, cant make the right decisions. I cant recognise this team from the team one year ago. I still feel last season was a bit of an outlier. Playing without fans makes such a huge impact. Especially away from home. It's crucial to win your home games now. Edited November 1, 2021 by villalad21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hippo Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, villalad21 said: I still feel last season was a bit of an outlier. Playing without fans makes such a huge impact. Especially away from home. It's crucial to win your home games now. Martinez was is unreal form at the start of last season. Now he's just decent. He made big saves in games we went onto win. Lost Grealish, changed Ollie's position, and a dip in the form of Martinez. That was the backbone of last season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catanzaro Posted November 1, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted November 1, 2021 3 hours ago, hippo said: Martinez was is unreal form at the start of last season. Now he's just decent. He made big saves in games we went onto win. Lost Grealish, changed Ollie's position, and a dip in the form of Martinez. That was the backbone of last season. also we came in to the season off the back of a relegation battle and I felt our intensity carried over to the new season and took teams by surprise early on.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulC Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 Whats with all these long throws all the time. Might as well get Pullis in. Its too predictable, we could be taking quick throw-ins and Bailey took one which didnt even reach the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laughable Chimp Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 (edited) 6 hours ago, hippo said: Martinez was is unreal form at the start of last season. Now he's just decent. He made big saves in games we went onto win. Lost Grealish, changed Ollie's position, and a dip in the form of Martinez. That was the backbone of last season. I think there's very good evidence that our defence isn't really that bad compared to last season and its really been Martinez papering over the cracks last season. Martinez's form goes, suddenly our defence looks a lot worse. Here's a list of interesting stats for this season so far and last season compared. Season 20/21 21/22 Shots conceded per game 14.1 14.9 Shots on target conceded per game 4.66 4.7 xG conceded per game 1.39 1.36 Post shot xG conceded per game 1.38 1.16 Note the xG statistics aren't including the West Ham game but its unlikely to affect the conclusion much even if included. Notice that we're not conceding much more shots per game this season compared to last season which you would expect to be the case if our defense indeed was much worse this season. Of course not all shots are the same and it could be we're just conceding more dangerous shots this season. However, the other statistics listed don't support that idea either. We're conceding almost the exact same amount of shots on target per game and expected goals per game. Even weirder, our post shot xG conceded(just think of it as basically a different version of xG for those uninitiated) conceded is actually considerably lower this season compared to last season. None of these statistics imply a worsening defence, yet why are we conceding so many more goals? Well, at least part of the reason is due to Martinez. There are statistics using post-shot xG on fbref which measure a goalkeeper's shot stopping ability and Martinez has been rather subpar by their metrics. When you combine with the fact that by their same metrics, Martinez was one of the best if not the best shot stopper in the league, the impact on the amount of goals we concede is very considerable.(Also Steer having a bad game shot-stopping wise against Chelsea didn't help). Now these statistics aren't very precise imo and they can only roughly approximate a goalkeeper's shot stopping ability(I can point to at least one match where I their model interpreted things in a very flawed way making Martinez look worse than in reality). However, the same thing can be seen if we look at even the most basic statistics which don't require complicated models. The table below lists last season's teams save percentages in order. Unsurprisingly, we're top of the table in terms of save percentage, further showcasing how important Martinez had been to us last season. Now look at the table for this season so far. Yikes. If its not immediately clear, we went from the team with the highest save percentage in the league to the team with the second lowest save percentage, only above Norwich. TLDR- Its not a worsening defence, its a goalkeeper who's gotten a lot worse compared to his admittedly incredibly high levels that's the main reason for us conceding so many more goals atm. Edit: There's also the possibility that the post shot xG model isn't properly capturing how difficult the shots are for Martinez to save I guess which isn't that unlikely imo and save percentage isn't that good of a metric by itself either. Its entirely possible we've just been a bit unlucky so far with the shots we've conceded. Regardless, whether Martinez getting worse or poor luck is the cause, I'm fairly sure at least that we are not conceding a higher quantity or more dangerous chances compared to last season. None of the statistics I've checked even hint at this possibility and I doubt it happens to be the case that they're all just wrong this time. Edited November 1, 2021 by Laughable Chimp 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avfc1982am Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 49 minutes ago, PaulC said: Whats with all these long throws all the time. Might as well get Pullis in. Its too predictable, we could be taking quick throw-ins and Bailey took one which didnt even reach the area. It's stupid. You push up your defenders then continually leave yourself exposed. There is a time for long throws. Late in games, when trailing and when Pulis is your manager. Otherwise there pointless and for those without a clue what else to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avfc1982am Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 3 minutes ago, Laughable Chimp said: I think there's very good evidence that our defence isn't really that bad compared to last season and its really been Martinez papering over the cracks last season. Martinez's form goes, suddenly our defence looks a lot worse. Here's a list of interesting stats for this season so far and last season compared. Season 20/21 21/22 Shots conceded per game 14.1 14.9 Shots on target conceded per game 4.66 4.7 xG conceded per game 1.39 1.36 Post shot xG conceded per game 1.38 1.16 Note the xG statistics aren't including the West Ham game but its unlikely to affect the conclusion much even if included. Notice that we're not conceding much more shots per game this season compared to last season which you would expect to be the case if our defense indeed was much worse this season. Of course not all shots are the same and it could be we're just conceding more dangerous shots this season. However, the other statistics listed don't support that idea either. We're conceding almost the exact same amount of shots on target per game and expected goals per game. Even weirder, our post shot xG conceded(just think of it as basically a different version of xG for those uninitiated) conceded is actually considerably lower this season compared to last season. None of these statistics imply a worsening defence, yet why are we conceding so many more goals? Well, at least part of the reason is due to Martinez. There are statistics using post-shot xG on fbref which measure a goalkeeper's shot stopping ability and Martinez has been rather subpar by their metrics. When you combine with the fact that by their same metrics, Martinez was one of the best if not the best shot stopper in the league, the impact on the amount of goals we concede is very considerable.(Also Steer having a bad game shot-stopping wise against Chelsea didn't help). Now these statistics aren't very precise imo and they can only roughly approximate a goalkeeper's shot stopping ability(I can point to at least one match where I their model interpreted things in a very flawed way making Martinez look worse than in reality). However, the same thing can be seen if we look at even the most basic statistics which don't require complicated models. The table below lists last season's teams save percentages in order. Unsurprisingly, we're top of the table in terms of save percentage, further showcasing how important Martinez had been to us last season. Now look at the table for this season so far. Yikes. If its not immediately clear, we went from the team with the highest save percentage in the league to the team with the second lowest save percentage, only above Norwich. TLDR- Its not a worsening defence, its a goalkeeper who's gotten a lot worse compared to his admittedly incredibly high levels that's the main reason for us conceding so many more goals atm. I don't want to piss on your bonfire but what that doesn't tell you is the areas from where shots are being taken. I think you were sort of making that point anyway. Teams are walking through us this year compared to last season when we sat slightly deeper. I think it's harsh on Martinez tbh. I think we also had more speculative efforts against us last season. From distance. At least in my head it appears that way. I could be wrong though???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laughable Chimp Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 (edited) 7 minutes ago, avfc1982am said: I don't want to piss on your bonfire but what that doesn't tell you is the areas from where shots are being taken. I think you were sort of making that point anyway. Teams are walking through us this year compared to last season when we sat slightly deeper. I think it's harsh on Martinez tbh. I think we also had more speculative efforts against us last season. From distance. At least in my head it appears that way. I could be wrong though???? That's what the xG conceded stat is supposed to say and why I included it in the table. It takes into account the areas where the shots are being taken from and the fact that it's similar for both seasons suggest that's not a big factor here. There's another stat which measures the average distance they're being taken from. The average shot distance from our goal this season is 18 yards compared to 17.3 yards last season so if anything, the shots are being taken from a slightly further distance this season on average. Edited November 1, 2021 by Laughable Chimp 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bazmonkey Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 5 minutes ago, avfc1982am said: I don't want to piss on your bonfire but what that doesn't tell you is the areas from where shots are being taken. I think you were sort of making that point anyway. Teams are walking through us this year compared to last season when we sat slightly deeper. I think it's harsh on Martinez tbh. I think we also had more speculative efforts against us last season. From distance. At least in my head it appears that way. I could be wrong though???? Teams were walking through us last year, but as the stats say Martinez was better, there have definitely been some goals conceded where you think, he would have saved that last year. We sit back so bad its shocking, I have lost count on how many villa players are in the box when we concede.....Rice's goal last night, clear example, 7 inc the keeper and he didnt hit it that far out, we have centre half's in the 6 yard box...midfielders on the edge...this kills us as well as the second ball retention.....even more so...going forward...the only thing is to hoof it to watkins....lose it...repeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villarocker Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 Not sure what he will do this week without Konsa but, when he is back, we need to go back to last season's back and keeper. We need to have McGinn and Luiz sat in front of them. We need Bailey wide left, Buendia wide right and Watkins up front alone. The only choice he needs to consider is who to play behind the striker. When Ollie runs the channels like he does maybe we could have Ings playing behind him to fill the space he leaves when he goes out wide? It has to be a choice between Ings, Ramsey or Carney. personally, when he returns, I would play Traore there. he has a fierce shot on him and is a bag of tricks. There wouldn't be so much emphasis on him tracking back in that position either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abdomlahor Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 (edited) i saw this coming a mile off and this is why i didn't really get our signings. they don't all fit into one single system. out best formation is 4-3-3/4-5-1. it's all too disjointed at the moment. commit back to the 4-3-3 and build from there. the best teams have one system and stick with it for the most part. we've played three or four already this season. Edited November 1, 2021 by abdomlahor 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lexicon Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 Quite a big issue we have is that our style of play doesn't lend itself well to when we're feeling sorry for ourselves (well, what kind does tbf) - playing it out of the back either requires midfielders to show for the ball or for forwards/attacking players to make a decent run, combined with a good pass and a little luck. When players are hiding, the only thing that happens is we hoof it and lose it and that is particularly exacerbated when Luiz isn't playing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danishlad Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 When we sold Grealish all we had to do was buy a replacement. We didn’t. We bought two wide right players (Bailey and Buendia) When we already had Traore. And we bought Ings when we already had a first choice in Watkins. also we got Tuanzebe in when we had 3 central defenders already. Now it seems the squad is very unbalanced and unhappy. And Smith is trying to please everyone. It seems like we are trying to build a new bomb squad to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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