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villakram

Unintentional Chinese Germ Warfare

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Surely deserving of their own thread by now. 

Anyway, I expect we'll get to doing a bit of discussing given the current viral outbreak. Just the simple measure of shutting down all flights/trains etc. departing the city of Wuhan, population ~ 11million.

~600 infected, ~20dead thus far with lots of interesting images all over the web of how serious they are treating it in places like Shanghai and Beijing. These numbers should rise rapidly as the infection appears to have a 3-10 day latent period.

Media are sure to latch on over here as soon as the first person one of "ours" becomes public, with a single case in Washington State thus far confirmed.

The WHO are scheduled to meet again tomorrow, to decide on whether to declare emergency or not, e.g, SARS/H1N1/Ebola level.

"Deaths from China’s new flu-like virus rose to 17 on Wednesday, with more than 540 cases confirmed, leading the city at the center of the outbreak to close transportation networks and urge citizens not to leave as fears rose of the contagion spreading."

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-transmission/chinas-wuhan-shuts-down-transport-as-global-alarm-mounts-over-virus-spread-idUSKBN1ZL07C

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Chinese New Year too, so people are more likely to have been traveling.  

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Found this page on Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_human_disease_case_fatality_rates

The very scary sounding Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) - which is also a coronavirus - has a fatality rate of 35%.

~20 deaths / ~600 infected = 3.3% fatality rate. If that's right then that would be up there with stuff like measles, smallpox, and Spanish flu, but presumably the rate is significantly lower due to a lot of mild cases going undetected?

Also, for it to blow up into an epidemic, it needs to be contagious enough for each person to infect, on average, at least one other person (I forget the name for this number, but if the number is <1 it will naturally fade, while anything significantly >1 becomes very hard to control without vaccination). Seems like the current reporting is that it is less contagious than SARS? (And people saying China are showing signs of being quite transparent and responsible about this, so no signs of a cover-up.)

Think I might watch Twelve Monkeys before I go to sleep.

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13 hours ago, villakram said:

The WHO are scheduled to meet again tomorrow

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2 minutes ago, Tegis said:

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Research mate. 

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1 minute ago, Seat68 said:

Research mate. 

Great tune

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Ohhh... cases detected in Scotland, let them have their Freeeeeedom.

Cobra committee meeting or some such probably warranted.

giphy.gif

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We got through the Ebola crisis which I thought would wipe us out, so not too worried about this. Not nice for anyone who catches it mind.

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Just now, Rugeley Villa said:

We got through the Ebola crisis which I thought would wipe us out, so not too worried about this. Not nice for anyone who catches it mind.

We need a good killer virus every now and again, it gets the birth rate up and the babies made are healthier.

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Just now, chrisp65 said:

We need a good killer virus every now and again, it gets the birth rate up and the babies made are healthier.

It won’t get the birth rate up in China. Is it still one kid allowed? 

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6 minutes ago, Rugeley Villa said:

It won’t get the birth rate up in China. Is it still one kid allowed? 

Nah quite the opposite now, they’re trying to get people to shag more (seriously).

A proper pandemic that kills millions sees a temporary reduction in population and then a baby boom. Theory is, all the people that are a bit wonky get filtered out by the virus. Everyone that’s left is alpha, shagging other alphas. A boom in alpha babies happens.

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3 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

Nah quite the opposite now, they’re trying to get people to shag more (seriously).

A proper pandemic that kills millions sees a temporary reduction in population and then a baby boom. Theory is, all the people that are a bit wonky get filtered out by the virus. Everyone that’s left is alpha, shagging other alphas. A boom in alpha babies happens.

God couldn’t have planned it any better. 

On a serious note the virus has probably been started from one of those live animal markets. Very bizarre nation.

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1 minute ago, Rugeley Villa said:

God couldn’t have planned it any better. 

On a serious note the virus has probably been started from one of those live animal markets. Very bizarre nation.

There’s a theory that most flu and respiratory viruses come from ducks. But usually, duck viruses can’t jump straight to humans, they need a stepping stone of another animal to make a bridge. The two theories right now that I’ve seen are a feral cat, or the fish market. Either would be a fair place for a duck to drop off a flu bomb. 

The big ones we have every once in a while are when the virus can jump straight to us and between us, those ones aren’t treated with Lemsip and a day in front of the tv.

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1 minute ago, chrisp65 said:

There’s a theory that most flu and respiratory viruses come from ducks. But usually, duck viruses can’t jump straight to humans, they need a stepping stone of another animal to make a bridge. The two theories right now that I’ve seen are a feral cat, or the fish market. Either would be a fair place for a duck to drop off a flu bomb. 

The big ones we have every once in a while are when the virus can jump straight to us and between us, those ones aren’t treated with Lemsip and a day in front of the tv.

Well, Duck, Feral Cat, and Fish are all available from the local Chinese takeaway, so be warned.

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Flying into China in March, so following this closely at the moment as I don't fancy dying anytime soon.

Seem's to be just a stronger version of the flu, the 20 people that have died were all elderly with health conditions.

An article I read yesterday seems to imply that the virus has come from Bat Soup, literally a bat in a bowl of soup.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7920573/Revolting-footage-shows-Chinese-woman-eating-bat-scientists-link-coronavirus-animal.html 

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It's a very similar to a flu virus, but it's a new virus that we have no knowledge or immunity to, thus the concern is that it's actually more severe in its morbidity than it might be showing at this time and that it might have a longer incubation time than we expect from things like a flu virus.

It's inevitable that the first deaths will be in weaker individuals, but as it's so new, it's hard to be sure if that will remain the case. If there's a bunch of people who are infected but not showing symptoms, and they suddenly start dropping like flies, then it's time to really worry. Especially as the virus has basically had a month to go wherever it wants from China. On the plus side, if there's not many people showing symptoms it might not have had the chance to spread as quickly as it might have if the instant you got infected you started coughing and sneezing, and so far there's not been anyone drop dead who was otherwise healthy, which even basic flu manages from time to time.

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North Korea has just shut it's borders , once the apocalypse has passed expect them to be the last survivors :) 

Anecdote time  , but I was in China around Dec 2002  and  I got ill  ,  flu symptoms  but unlike anything I'd  encountered before  , I was travelling around on an escorted tour so all I could really do was kinda try to muck on as you do , but eventually our concerned guides rushed me to some clinic  , where I was examined and prodded by people in masks and gowns  like I was Travis Walton  ... not knowing any better  I just assumed that's how the Chinese treated you if you were a tourist that got ill  ...  subsequently it turned out there had been a huge outbreak of SARs that they had been keeping quiet ( it was around Feb before the Chinese told the rest of the world as i recall ) . I've always wondered if that was the reason for the treatment i received   , either that or they just wanted to steal my blood and clone me for an army of super soldiers 

 

 

 

Edited by tonyh29

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