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Generic Virus Thread


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On 23/01/2020 at 01:54, KentVillan said:

Found this page on Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_human_disease_case_fatality_rates

The very scary sounding Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) - which is also a coronavirus - has a fatality rate of 35%.

~20 deaths / ~600 infected = 3.3% fatality rate. If that's right then that would be up there with stuff like measles, smallpox, and Spanish flu, but presumably the rate is significantly lower due to a lot of mild cases going undetected?

Also, for it to blow up into an epidemic, it needs to be contagious enough for each person to infect, on average, at least one other person (I forget the name for this number, but if the number is <1 it will naturally fade, while anything significantly >1 becomes very hard to control without vaccination). Seems like the current reporting is that it is less contagious than SARS? (And people saying China are showing signs of being quite transparent and responsible about this, so no signs of a cover-up.)

Think I might watch Twelve Monkeys before I go to sleep.

An expert on infectious diseases this morning on the BBC news said that number is now around 2.5.

Edited by Morley_crosses_to_Withe
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On 23/01/2020 at 12:09, bannedfromHandV said:

Anyone watched The Passage (TV series)?

Basically this, just hopefully with less vampires.

It always reminds me of The Stand, especially those viruses with flu like symptoms. 

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On 24/01/2020 at 08:23, wilko154 said:

Flying into China in March, so following this closely at the moment as I don't fancy dying anytime soon.

Seem's to be just a stronger version of the flu, the 20 people that have died were all elderly with health conditions.

An article I read yesterday seems to imply that the virus has come from Bat Soup, literally a bat in a bowl of soup.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7920573/Revolting-footage-shows-Chinese-woman-eating-bat-scientists-link-coronavirus-animal.html 

Are you travelling on holiday or for work? 

If it was me i would not be going for either. I would not put myself at risk.

Indeed, i was planning a months holiday touring the place in September this year which i have now decided to put on hold. I will probably go next year now when its all cleared up.

To put it into some context, the outbreak of SARS in 2002/03 lasted for 8 months !!!!

This outbreak has all the makings of lasting for a long time. Perhaps even lnger than the SARS outbreak.

Take a look here for the complete time line

November 16: The first case of atypical pneumonia is reported in the Guangdong province in southern China.

July 5: WHO announced that the global SARS outbreak was contained.

 

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1 hour ago, Rugeley Villa said:

Until China get to grips with their disgusting animal food trade, then it will keep happening.

Not only that, but what they cook the stuff in.

I'd never heard of "gutter oil" until last night.  Apparently, experts believe 10% of restaurants in China use gutter oil for cooking.  Looks delicious!

 

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Can spread during the incubation period they are now saying, which makes trying to contain it basically impossible (especially as it's basically had a month to go where it wants). The post Chinese New Year period is going to be a global horror show. 

At this point it's down to hoping it burns itself out or a vaccine is developed.

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26 minutes ago, NurembergVillan said:

Not only that, but what they cook the stuff in.

I'd never heard of "gutter oil" until last night.  Apparently, experts believe 10% of restaurants in China use gutter oil for cooking.  Looks delicious!

 

Unbelievable isn’t it. I can’t get my head around it in all honesty. It’s not just the animals they eat dead/alive, it’s how they are kept and the hygiene must be pretty desperate. 

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6 minutes ago, Chindie said:

Can spread during the incubation period they are now saying, which makes trying to contain it basically impossible (especially as it's basically had a month to go where it wants). The post Chinese New Year period is going to be a global horror show. 

At this point it's down to hoping it burns itself out or a vaccine is developed.

You think it will be worse than the SARS virus? 

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22 minutes ago, Rugeley Villa said:

You think it will be worse than the SARS virus? 

Depends on it's fatality rate. SARS wasn't transmitted until symptoms appeared, but it had a nasty fatality level. MERS had an even higher lethality but didn't spread as widely. This appears able to spread prior to symptoms showing, and we don't really know what it's lethality is yet.

Worst case it spreads easily and kills regularly. We won't know with that until more time has passed.

Ironically Wuhan is home to a Chinese disease research centre that has been involved in bat virus analysis.

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44 minutes ago, Chindie said:

or a vaccine is developed

Pretty much impossible from what I've been reading. It seems that the body "completely forgets" the virus after about 4 months they reckon, so its possible to get re-infected time and time again

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8 minutes ago, Chindie said:

Depends on it's fatality rate. SARS wasn't transmitted until symptoms appeared, but it had a nasty fatality level. MERS had an even higher lethality but didn't spread as widely. This appears able to spread prior to symptoms showing, and we don't really know what it's lethality is yet.

Worst case it spreads easily and kills regularly. We won't know with that until more time has passed.

Ironically Wuhan is home to a Chinese disease research centre that has been involved in bat virus analysis.

It seems the fatality rate isn’t too bad, although it will be higher than is reported no doubt. Can’t wait for the papers to start trying to put everyone into an apocalyptic frenzy .

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28 minutes ago, Rugeley Villa said:

You think it will be worse than the SARS virus? 

It definately has the potential for it to be worse.

At this stage it's only going to get worse as its yet to hit it's 'peak'

The authorities have no idea what it is and as @Chindie has mentioned a vacinne has yet to be developed. Indeed a vacinne is a long way away at the moment and even when one is developed it's a huge logistal task to get that spread around to be made available for people to take it.

I have been to China many, many times from a work perspective and i've been there on holiday. I love the place. The people are so friendly. The sights are amazing. It is a very advanced country in so many ways but equally it is still so backwards in so many ways.

Most of the areas it is backwards in is in the food and hygene. Whenever i was there i maily ate in the hotels i was staying in (worldwide brand name chain hotels). I was taken out a few times by Chinese work collegues to local restruants where they ordered all of the food. Lord knows what was on the table. I filled myself up on the rice in these instances. To us westerners, they eat some strange stuff and they eat everything, bone gristle etc. They do not beileve in waste. The majority of the 'bizzare'' things they eat can be put down to centuries of culteral belief. Bizzarely, they believe a lot of what they eat has a bearing on health and there well being. Hence why they eat what they eat.

As for this virus, eventually it will pass by, the question is when.

Thats why at the moment i would not venture anywhere near China or other parts of Asia until it has........there is no need to put youself in any undue risk.

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1 hour ago, imavillan said:

It definately has the potential for it to be worse.

The lead French doctor treating two of France's three victims thinks otherwise

Quote

The lead doctor treating two Paris hospital patients for the new virus from China said Saturday that the illness appears less serious than comparable outbreaks of the past and that the chance of a European epidemic appears weak at this stage.

French officials on Friday reported three confirmed cases of the newly identified coronavirus in France, the first ones in Europe. The third patient is at a hospital in Bordeaux. The head of France’s health department, Jerome Salomon, said Saturday evening that all three are doing “very well.”

France 24

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It’s purely down to culture whether people eat anything and everything, or stick to prime cuts of chicken and beef.

We’ve had it easy enough to get squeamish and most won’t even try kidneys or liver, so we see someone else eating snake or locust or whatever and we think it’s outrageous.

Though, strangely, it’s mostly the food squeamish that then happily eat Saturday night takeaway burgers.

Hygene, when mass producing cheap street food, that’s another story altogether.

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, bickster said:

The lead French doctor treating two of France's three victims thinks otherwise

France 24

I'm no medical expert, far from it, but it seems a bit premature for him to be stating what he is. The virus is still at an early stage and as such it's too early to say if it will be worse than SARS. 

The reports coming out of China are now saying the incubation period can be anything from one to fourteen days.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/01/26/coronavirus-becoming-contagious-chinese-health-authorities-warn/?utm_content=telegraph&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1580048947

 On Sunday, China's National Health Commission Minister, Ma Xiaowei, said the incubation period for the virus could range from one to 14 days, and it was infectious during incubation. This was not the case with Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (Sars), a coronavirus that originated in China and killed nearly 800 people globally in 2002 and 2003.

"According to recent clinical information, the virus's ability to spread seems to be getting somewhat stronger," Mr Ma told a packed media briefing on the second day of the Lunar New Year holiday, adding that knowledge of the virus was limited.

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9 minutes ago, imavillan said:

I'm no medical expert, far from it, but it seems a bit premature for him to be stating what he is. The virus is still at an early stage and as such it's too early to say if it will be worse than SARS. 

The reports coming out of China are now saying the incubation period can be anything from one to fourteen days.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/01/26/coronavirus-becoming-contagious-chinese-health-authorities-warn/?utm_content=telegraph&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1580048947

 On Sunday, China's National Health Commission Minister, Ma Xiaowei, said the incubation period for the virus could range from one to 14 days, and it was infectious during incubation. This was not the case with Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (Sars), a coronavirus that originated in China and killed nearly 800 people globally in 2002 and 2003.

"According to recent clinical information, the virus's ability to spread seems to be getting somewhat stronger," Mr Ma told a packed media briefing on the second day of the Lunar New Year holiday, adding that knowledge of the virus was limited.

I think he's talking about treatability and recovery in a Western Hospital scenario, as in all three they have are responding well to treatment, not in terms of the way it spreads and incubation periods etc

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5 minutes ago, bickster said:

"According to recent clinical information, the virus's ability to spread seems to be getting somewhat stronger," Mr Ma told a packed media briefing on the second day of the Lunar New Year holiday, adding that knowledge of the virus was limited.

 

5 minutes ago, bickster said:

I think he's talking about treatability and recovery in a Western Hospital scenario, as in all three they have are responding well to treatment, not in terms of the way it spreads and incubation periods etc

That may well be the case, but you can't get away from the fact it's still too early to be making claims about the virus.

His comments were from Saturday. The latest quote coming from China is from today.

I'll stick with the lets wait and see approach myself.

Edited by imavillan
changed Friday to Saturday
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4 hours ago, villa4europe said:

I thought most of the bizarre things they eat comes from years of poverty 

The anything with legs other than a chair stuff

How it's cooked and prepared is a bit different though

I've been in nice restaurants in places like Thailand with Chinese people who are working in the country and they still eat all the weird stuff.   We could get an amazing fish delivered to the table and the Chinese dude is hooking out the eyes and the brains and stuff.  It's nuts.

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