DCJonah Posted June 7, 2020 Share Posted June 7, 2020 12 hours ago, lapal_fan said: Anyone sending their kids to school as of July? If so, why? If not, why? I've been looking and I'm thinking it's best for my 5 year old to go back, based on the stats and measures being enforced. But just wondering what others are thinking. We didn't send our 4 year olds back to pre school last week but we are seriously considering doing it in July. They start school in September so we would like some normality back in their lives before such a big change. Also, we are starting to feel safer about the risk of them getting the virus and the preschool have put measures in place but still tried to keep normality as much as possible. My daughters have been great since lockdown and its only been the last few days that they've really mentioned pre school and wanting to see their friends. If the R rate goes up in the next few weeks then we will just keep them off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demitri_C Posted June 7, 2020 Share Posted June 7, 2020 2 hours ago, chrisp65 said: Perhaps they need to expand their information base, I hope these aren’t the same people that supply you with your YouTube Conspiracy channels? Of the few dozen people I know of that live in the U.S. (via my nipper’s year in a U.S. Uni), every single one of them is aware of the protests around the world and happy to see it resonate and be supported. We appear to mix in very different circles. Just because your circle is different to mine doesnt mean my point is wrong just that we speak with different people in america that have different opinions. Not sure why you feel the need to bring up posts from the past that are irrelevant to the original point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulC Posted June 7, 2020 Share Posted June 7, 2020 14 policemen injured as a results of attacks. they shouldn't have to be dealing with this and putting their lives in danger because of these protests. Its so wrong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted June 7, 2020 Share Posted June 7, 2020 One thing I have grown increasingly tired of - and this site seems to consist of a lot of it these days - is assertions, from all sides, that 'activity x' would have caused/will cause superspreading of the virus, without any actual proof. Did conga lines on VE day cause the virus to spread? Has anyone looked into that? Or was it a thing we just said because it seemed likely, and now it's canon? Are crowded beaches leading to the virus spreading, or not? The same goes for these protests. I attended and took as much in the way of reasonable precautions as I could. I wore a mask (though it rained, so that was probably useless) and tried to stand at least 2 metres away from anyone other than my wife at all times. Inevitably, people moved closer than that, but in that case I moved. I was cognisant of the risks, but I will obviously not be *happy* to have either caught or spread the virus. I made an assessment on the importance of the cause versus the transmission of the virus, but it doesn't help people to make informed decisions if there is no follow up on whether transmission actually happens or not. 10 days ago, there was an (in)famous pool party at the Lake of the Ozarks in Missouri, which looked like this: At least one person who attended was infected and likely at the peak of infectiousness, but so far there are appear to have been no transmissions: As she notes, there's still time for cases to appear. However, we need less shaming and more facts. It might seem 'obvious' to you that conga lines and street parties, pool parties, political protests etc are all mass transmission events, but we don't actually know that much about the virus yet. If you're going to bring the judgement, bring the data as well. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted June 7, 2020 Share Posted June 7, 2020 6 minutes ago, Demitri_C said: Just because your circle is different to mine doesnt mean my point is wrong just that we speak with different people in america that have different opinions. Not sure why you feel the need to bring up posts from the past that are irrelevant to the original point? It’s not an opinion that they didn’t know the reaction around the world, it’s a fact. If they didn’t know about the worldwide support for BLM, which appears to have been on most news networks and social media, then perhaps they could expand their information sources. If they do, and you or they still think it’s foolish or stupid, that’s when we have different opinions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bannedfromHandV Posted June 7, 2020 Share Posted June 7, 2020 6 minutes ago, PaulC said: 14 policemen injured as a results of attacks. they shouldn't have to be dealing with this and putting their lives in danger because of these protests. Its so wrong! An agenda is strong in this one, I sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post sne Posted June 7, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted June 7, 2020 From Brazil 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulC Posted June 7, 2020 Share Posted June 7, 2020 (edited) 23 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said: One thing I have grown increasingly tired of - and this site seems to consist of a lot of it these days - is assertions, from all sides, that 'activity x' would have caused/will cause superspreading of the virus, without any actual proof. Did conga lines on VE day cause the virus to spread? Has anyone looked into that? Or was it a thing we just said because it seemed likely, and now it's canon? Are crowded beaches leading to the virus spreading, or not? The R Rate is currently greater than 1 in my area. What we do know that is approx. 1/1000 people are infected in this country and we had mass gatherings of many thousands in cities around the country, which is far greater than the numbers attending beaches and not only that people shouting and chanting makes it far more likely to spread the virus than people just lying on beaches or swimming. So the likelihood is that the virus would have been spread but we'll find out in the course of time just how much damage has been done. Edited June 7, 2020 by PaulC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted June 7, 2020 Moderator Share Posted June 7, 2020 7 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said: One thing I have grown increasingly tired of - and this site seems to consist of a lot of it these days - is assertions, from all sides, that 'activity x' would have caused/will cause superspreading of the virus, without any actual proof. ... I may be taking you too literally, but I completely disagree with the point I think you’re making in the quote. Firstly, it is not possible to “prove” a prediction, until down the line. I was massively angered by the VE Day throbbers where I live all partying in the street with no social distancing. It was both a breach of the lockdown rules, the law, and also absolutely evident that anyone with covi there was risking the health and even lives of others, particularly given the age profile of most of them. The reason Dominic Cummins caused so much anger was not just because he broke the rules he helped set, but because the rules were drawn up to protect people from spreading the virus. And that spreading the virus risk and mitigation measures were determined by scientists and medics and epidemiologists. it is completely fair and valid in my view for people to assert that going against the specialist advice is risking spreading the virus again and that includes super-spreading. Yes people can take precautions like masks etc, but it is inevitable that new cases and infections will arise when people don’t isolate, don’t distance, don’t adequately take care and measures to avoid the risks. its a separate argument as to whether the BLM cause merits that risk, and given the government’s own hypocrisy etc. I can understand why some people decided to protest, despite the risks they created, in order to try to help fix systemic racism. But you haven’t got a leg to stand on with your quoted complaint about the tiresomeness of people following, essentially, the reasoning for “stay at home” and following the scientific advice that not staying at home risks transmission. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted June 7, 2020 Share Posted June 7, 2020 28 minutes ago, Demitri_C said: Just because your circle is different to mine doesnt mean my point is wrong Yes, it does if you had any point other than the people that you talk to don't watch the news or know anything much about what goes on outside of their own country. Your comment about the people you were talking to not knowing was in response to: 17 hours ago, choffer said: No but I’ve seen a lot of people who are protesting in the US saying how encouraged they are that protests are happening around the world. Given that, I think it's very difficult to make the case that you weren't trying to counter @choffer's point by using the anecdote about what your friends were aware of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted June 7, 2020 Share Posted June 7, 2020 14 minutes ago, blandy said: I may be taking you too literally, but I completely disagree with the point I think you’re making in the quote. Firstly, it is not possible to “prove” a prediction, until down the line. I was massively angered by the VE Day throbbers where I live all partying in the street with no social distancing. It was both a breach of the lockdown rules, the law, and also absolutely evident that anyone with covi there was risking the health and even lives of others, particularly given the age profile of most of them. I recall very well you being very angry at the time (you still seem to be!). But have you actually done anything about it, like look into whether 'VE Day throbbers' actually did transmit the virus? 15 minutes ago, blandy said: it is completely fair and valid in my view for people to assert that going against the specialist advice is risking spreading the virus again and that includes super-spreading. Yes people can take precautions like masks etc, but it is inevitable that new cases and infections will arise when people don’t isolate, don’t distance, don’t adequately take care and measures to avoid the risks. People can 'assert' what they like, but in reality 'assertions' are more powerful and persuasive when they are backed by data. You say it is 'inevitable' that new cases and infections will arise in a variety of circumstances, but that's not actually science is it. That's just you making a (reasonable) assumption. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulC Posted June 7, 2020 Share Posted June 7, 2020 (edited) Why do people keep bringing up VE day. It wasn't even that bad was it. Edited June 7, 2020 by PaulC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted June 7, 2020 Moderator Share Posted June 7, 2020 51 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said: I recall very well you being very angry at the time (you still seem to be!). But have you actually done anything about it, like look into whether 'VE Day throbbers' actually did transmit the virus? People can 'assert' what they like, but in reality 'assertions' are more powerful and persuasive when they are backed by data. You say it is 'inevitable' that new cases and infections will arise in a variety of circumstances, but that's not actually science is it. That's just you making a (reasonable) assumption. I've calmed down now The assertions are backed by data. That's the whole point. It's true that without Track, Trace, Isolate no one can "prove" an individual definitely passed on virus to another on a particular date, and even then it's not 100%, so no one can know if Cummings or his wife infected anyone in Barnard Castle, or the Hospital he visited, or (to answer your question) whether on local to me VE Day celebrations people were impacted. But Yes, the NW has a higher than 1 R number, local death tolls are still high here. The balance of probability is some of that is down to failure to stay at home and socially distance on VE Day. Being alarmed that people were ignoring clear, science based, requirements to distance may be "Tiresome" (to you), but it's also "tiresome" to see fellow citizens decisions to ignore advice risk other citizens becoming very seriously ill, or worse. The scientific evidence of transmission is clear enough for humans, for the WHO to recommend, and for Governments to make law, various measures and advice not to congregate in large numbers, for sport and music and arts to be cancelled. For shops and schools to be closed etc. even with face masks and distancing. Stay at Home works. Mass gatherings do not work in reducing/stopping the spread. That's what the evidence suggests. Did you, or your wife catch it at your protest, I sincerely hope not, and you say you were distancing and wearing masks, and that's good. Was absolutely everyone else, all the time? I rather suspect they may not. Like I said, it may be that the harm (Covi risk) v good (for BLM) argument is on the side of the protesters for BLM. I'm fine with that judgment whichever way individuals wish to make it, but I feel it's inarguable that large gatherings are not appropriate in the UK right now in terms of minimising the spread of a lethal virus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted June 7, 2020 Moderator Share Posted June 7, 2020 1 hour ago, PaulC said: Why do people keep bringing up VE day. It wasn't even that bad was it. It was round by me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted June 7, 2020 Share Posted June 7, 2020 6 minutes ago, blandy said: I've calmed down now The assertions are backed by data. That's the whole point. It's true that without Track, Trace, Isolate no one can "prove" an individual definitely passed on virus to another on a particular date, and even then it's not 100%, so no one can know if Cummings or his wife infected anyone in Barnard Castle, or the Hospital he visited, or (to answer your question) whether on local to me VE Day celebrations people were impacted. But Yes, the NW has a higher than 1 R number, local death tolls are still high here. The balance of probability is some of that is down to failure to stay at home and socially distance on VE Day. What we need to know is the extent to which this is not 'the balance of probability' (ie, (possibly informed) guesswork), but actual fact. It is not impossible for this work to be done - I have provided an example of a tweet, upthread, quoting a health official leading an investigation into whether a large party led to coronavirus spread. If we do not attempt to gather this data, then we are left with much less knowledge about how the virus spreads. I have previously provided data on this thread from the Austrian public health authority, who reported that zero superspreading events had happened outdoors in the chains they investigated. That's nice, but is that the case here? We need to know that information. Relying on 'the balance of probability' is just another way of saying 'looking at this picture of X, I feel like it ought to have led to lots of transmission'. That shouldn't be good enough; this is a new virus, so nobody yet knows exactly how well it transmits in different circumstances. 16 minutes ago, blandy said: The scientific evidence of transmission is clear enough for humans, for the WHO to recommend, and for Governments to make law, various measures and advice not to congregate in large numbers, for sport and music and arts to be cancelled. For shops and schools to be closed etc. even with face masks and distancing. Stay at Home works. Lockdowns are a blunt measure introduced by governments because it is a serious new virus for which there is a lack of data, and so precaution was the word of the day. However, you are describing here several very different places. Parks, shops, beaches, concert venues, restaurants and plazas, crowded or otherwise, have very different characteristics from each other. Again, we need data to understand which of these environments is dangerous, and under what circumstances. There is a lot that we don't know about this virus. You seem to have misunderstood me as saying 'what is tiresome is people advising other people to be cautious', whereas what I am saying is 'what is tiresome is posters pretending they know more about the virus than they actually do'. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted June 7, 2020 Moderator Share Posted June 7, 2020 5 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said: What we need to know is the extent to which this is not 'the balance of probability' (ie, (possibly informed) guesswork), but actual fact. It is not impossible for this work to be done - I have provided an example of a tweet, upthread, quoting a health official leading an investigation into whether a large party led to coronavirus spread. If we do not attempt to gather this data, then we are left with much less knowledge about how the virus spreads.... There is a lot that we don't know about this virus. You seem to have misunderstood me as saying 'what is tiresome is people advising other people to be cautious', whereas what I am saying is 'what is tiresome is posters pretending they know more about the virus than they actually do'. Yes, absolute hard facts are what we need. The more the better. We have been told that transmission is via breath/cough vapour or droplets getting onto skin, either directly or picked up from a surface and then if not washed off, subsequent touching of eyes, nose mouth and into the next person. The length and dose of exposure etc. I don't think they know how much or for how long. So sure, more data will help. They also say outdoors is much less risky than some indoors situations. Yes lockdown "works". And not locking down, when the R number is high leads to increased spread. Correlation and causation aren't the same thing, but some spikes co-incided with attendance at mass events - the oft mentioned Cheltenham horse jumping, Liverpool against Madrid at togger, Stereophonics singing session and so on. So yes, people at repeat events, or similar ones and postulate that these too, create a risk of further transmission outbreaks. Maybe they won't actually result in that, it's risk, not certainty, as I think I've been clear in saying. I mean there are posters who've been very critical of Cummings, of the MPs returning to vote in a big queue when they could do it remotely and so on. Surely that's the same "tiresome" criticism, as it is without "any actual proof" of spreading it. The responsibility has to be towards not doing a Cummings and deciding the rules don't apply to me (whoever) because [reason], but towards "I won't congregate because that's the advice based on the understanding of the experts that best helps de-risk other people from catching it? I agree it's not 100% evidence backed up, but it is backed by an ever growing set of evidence. If in due course outdoor transmission is found to not happen (unlikely to be the case) then fine, have our sport and music back. Till then though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted June 7, 2020 Share Posted June 7, 2020 4 minutes ago, blandy said: some spikes co-incided with attendance at mass events - the oft mentioned Cheltenham horse jumping, Liverpool against Madrid at togger, Stereophonics singing session and so on. So yes, people at repeat events, or similar ones and postulate that these too, create a risk of further transmission outbreaks. Maybe they won't actually result in that, it's risk, not certainty, as I think I've been clear in saying. I agree that *you* largely have been careful in hedging your claims. If you look back over the last half dozen or so pages, you will find other posters have not always been so careful to hedge. 5 minutes ago, blandy said: I mean there are posters who've been very critical of Cummings, of the MPs returning to vote in a big queue when they could do it remotely and so on. Surely that's the same "tiresome" criticism, as it is without "any actual proof" of spreading it. Not really, no. Cummings was travelling while symptomatic with coronavirus (his wife, or he and his wife). I would obviously hope that nobody living with anyone with coronavirus symptoms, or suffering from them themselves, went to a protest (though of course there's no way of being sure they didn't). The criticism of MP's voting in person is different because a] Parliament is indoors, b] Parliament is an employer, in some respects, so this would be more like a negligent boss forcing you to return to work in an unsafe work environment, not a choice, and c] there is a clearly-available alternative that works just as well or better. That's not really very similar to the BLM protests at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sharkyvilla Posted June 7, 2020 Share Posted June 7, 2020 Logically it seems to me that the R rate got down to below one because people weren't coming into as close contact as before, not because the virus has become less contagious in that time. Therefore mixing together in close proximity is only going to cause more spread and unfortunately BAME people seem to suffer more severely from the disease. I don't know how many black people are unlawfully killed by the police over here but I suspect there is a chance more black people will die from covid if the R gets back up above 1 again. All this when there have been examples in this thread of protesters doing it in a safe, socially distant way but there must have been thousands ignoring it yesterday. Hopefully I'm wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulC Posted June 7, 2020 Share Posted June 7, 2020 28 minutes ago, sharkyvilla said: Logically it seems to me that the R rate got down to below one because people weren't coming into as close contact as before, not because the virus has become less contagious in that time. Therefore mixing together in close proximity is only going to cause more spread and unfortunately BAME people seem to suffer more severely from the disease. I don't know how many black people are unlawfully killed by the police over here but I suspect there is a chance more black people will die from covid if the R gets back up above 1 again. All this when there have been examples in this thread of protesters doing it in a safe, socially distant way but there must have been thousands ignoring it yesterday. Hopefully I'm wrong. Time will tell but theres evidence to suggest that the R rate has risen already because of people going to beaches the weekend before so I would think its going to go well above 1 in most areas now. this is at a time when death rates are dropping. Very sad really! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted June 7, 2020 Share Posted June 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, PaulC said: Time will tell but theres evidence to suggest that the R rate has risen already because of people going to beaches the weekend before so I would think its going to go well above 1 in most areas now. this is at a time when death rates are dropping. Very sad really! *In a non-aggressive voice* can you say where you have seen that evidence? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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