Generic Virus Thread

[snowychap]

Also like these tweets in response to the gogglebox clips:

 

[HanoiVillan]

'Dissolve the public and elect another'

[Awol]

35 minutes ago, blandy said:

..it was entirely certain that leaving the EU would/will lead to a need to submit more to Chinese influence.

I don’t think that follows at all and there’s no evidence as to why we should. Our problem with China isn’t an inability to resist them, it’s the Chinese capture of our elites, intent on personally profiting from selling out everything they possibly can - including our national security. 

That’s a systemic problem involving politicians, civil servants (particularly those linked to the Cameron government), industrialists and lobbyists. For example, Peter Mandelson and Roland Rudd, two prime movers in the Remain campaign, are likely to be investigated for assisting the Chinese in attempts to target UK companies financially distressed by the pandemic. 

There is nothing systemic in leaving the EU which dictates UK must ‘submit’ to Chinese Communist Party, or it’s ethics, this is a category error in defining the problem. 

Besides, you may have noticed the EU changing its report on Chinese disinformation over Covid last week, under diplomatic pressure from Beijing. It’s not an in or out of the EU issue, it’s a dealing with domestic elite corruption and growing a political pair issue. Imo, of course. 

[Xela]

1 hour ago, foreveryoung said:

Strange we have heard nothing from Russia.

[Jareth]

John Bell at Oxford on their vaccine - it's looking good - 

“I certainly wouldn’t put the possibility at 80% -- that’s a pretty big number. But we are gradually reeling it in bit by bit and as every day goes by, the likelihood of success goes up.”
He added: “We’ve already started clinical trials, so we’ve already given the vaccine to about a thousand people and we’re going to grow that pretty rapidly.

“We’ve consolidated the phase one and two programs because we are pretty confident that the vector itself is safe because it’s been used in about 5,000 people already up to now.

“So that’s allowed us to really accelerate the phase one program and we hope that there would be enough disease that we would get evidence that the vaccine has efficacy by the beginning of June.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/may/03/uk-coronavirus-live-doctors-had-prepared-to-announce-boris-johnsons-death

[VILLAMARV]

1 hour ago, HanoiVillan said:

more on link: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/03/world/asia/coronavirus-spread-where-why.html

I'm intrigued but the lack of one button to reject all the cookies I can simply, means i won't read it unfortunately.

Any interesting conclusions?

[blandy]

18 minutes ago, Awol said:

...Our problem with China isn’t an inability to resist them, it’s the Chinese capture of our elites, intent on personally profiting from selling out everything they possibly can - including our national security.

Given you say our "elites" (the people running the country) have been "captured" then that rather underlines my point. Whether they captured by greed, ideology, blackmail or whatever tricks and threats have been used througout time, they are (in your terms) prisoners of and therefore unable to resist. I think it was predicatable that this would be the case.But if you want to classify it as "unwilling" to resist, rather than unable to resist, that's fine. The result is the same preictable outcome.

18 minutes ago, Awol said:

That’s a systemic problem involving politicians, civil servants (particularly those linked to the Cameron government), industrialists and lobbyists. For example, Peter Mandelson and Roland Rudd, two prime movers in the Remain campaign, are likely to be investigated for assisting the Chinese in attempts to target UK companies financially distressed by the pandemic.

yes it is systemic, and it's not solely one part of one party, you're right - though it is more prevalent in one party. The civil servants are not the decision makers, ministers are. But being systemic, again, it is predictable while the system remains unchanged.

18 minutes ago, Awol said:

There is nothing systemic in leaving the EU which dictates UK must ‘submit’ to Chinese Communist Party, or it’s ethics, this is a category error in defining the problem. 

Besides, you may have noticed the EU changing its report on Chinese disinformation over Covid last week, under diplomatic pressure from Beijing. It’s not an in or out of the EU issue, it’s a dealing with domestic elite corruption and growing a political pair issue. Imo, of course. 

First line, I think we disagree, and there's not much I can add.

Second line - Yes. This I think shows the strength of the Chinese "bargaining" position. The EU is many times the size of the UK, both in trade with China and in population, and they are still subjected to pressure. The UK is in a much weaker position. You're right, were we still part of the EU, we'd be under that pressure. As it is we're in a much weaker position than the EU, due to our much smaller trade and nation size. I'm not arguing that no one else is or will be subjected to Chinese (and others) using their weight against our interests, just that as a consequence of Brexit we are predicatable more vulnerable to it, we are in a weaker position because of it. And yes there are some upsides elsewhere, though on balance they don't correct for the downsides.

Perhaps because of the virus and what it's revealed more starkly, some sytemic change will come out of it, but I'm not holding my breath.

[VILLAMARV]

Bbc not running adverts again  

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52521526

Quote

An NHS app aimed at limiting a second wave of coronavirus will be trialled on the Isle of Wight this week, according to the transport secretary.

It will be the first place where the new contact-tracing app will be used before being rolled out more widely this month, said Grant Shapps.

The government will be asking the whole of the UK to download it, he told the BBC's Andrew Marr Show.

"That will help with a lot of the automation of the tracking."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-52442754

Quote

Millions of people in the UK will soon be asked to track their movements to limit the spread of coronavirus.

The government says hiring is well under way for a team of 18,000 to trace the contacts of those infected.

Communities Secretary Robert Jenrick says ''all of society'' will have to play their part in contact tracing, by downloading a nationwide app when it is released in a few weeks' time,

Anyone know if Matt Hancock's brother's company is doing this one?

I'd have thought the Health Secretary would be running the PR for NHS stuff normally wouldn't he?

Perhaps there's a conflict of interest.

(This is one of those rare posts from me not in my sarcastic voice)

I saw they dismissed the google-Apple one

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52441428

Quote

It has opted for a "centralised model" to achieve this - meaning that the matching process, which works out which phones to send alerts to - happens on a computer server.

This contrasts with Apple and Google's "decentralised" approach - where the matches take place on users' handsets.

Google and Apple didn't want to share the data with the NHS.

The data from the university ones will be available on the free market of course.

The weird thing is shapps suggesting on Andrew marr that 50-60% sign up was required to make it effective. I thought it was 80%+. 

Achievable target stuff? Or genuinely half the smart phone users is good enough?

[Jareth]

9 minutes ago, VILLAMARV said:

Google and Apple didn't want to share the data with the NHS.

I read about that - I can see the case for privacy but on this virus I'm very much all for surrendering data if it makes the app more effective. Afterwards is another question - will certainly delete the app when it is redundant. 

[chrisp65]

Do we know the percentage of elderly and at risk groups that have a smart phone and trust Sebastian Matthew Grant V. Fox Green Shapps?

 

[HanoiVillan]

38 minutes ago, VILLAMARV said:

I'm intrigued but the lack of one button to reject all the cookies I can simply, means i won't read it unfortunately.

Any interesting conclusions?

Not really, it's highlighting the questions rather than providing answers. They show that you can make an argument for or against all five of the possible reasons for variation, which naturally leads to the idea that either there is something else that we're missing so far, or that it's some combination of the others.

[limpid]

4 minutes ago, Jareth said:

I read about that - I can see the case for privacy but on this virus I'm very much all for surrendering data if it makes the app more effective. Afterwards is another question - will certainly delete the app when it is redundant. 

It's not true.

There is no Google/Apple app.  Google and Apple are creating a standardised API which can only be used by apps from state level entities which will allow low level OS access to the bluetooth stack. This mean that a tracking app can make use of all the power saving and always-on features that an app would need. However, they require that the data from any app using this API is not stored centrally.

An app would record an anonymous identifier of devices within a certain range of you and store that data on your device for a few weeks. The app would ask if you are well or ask about symptoms. When covid-19 is suspected, the user would be asked to get tested. If a test is positive,  the list of anonymous identifiers which the user has interacted with is uploaded to a server. The apps belonging to those anonymous identifiers would see their own identifier and tell that user they need to be tested. No central database of user ids, movements or interactions is needed. 

You'd be a fool to install an app which is the result of the government outsourcing development to one of the party donors. You aren't sharing all your movement and interaction data with the government. You are sharing it with an organisation as incompetent as the people who couldn't set up testing centres (because they weren't qualified or experienced in developing such systems). Your data will be sold / leaked / lost before the end of this year even if you delete the app. Because they can't use the new API, it will also drain your battery and is unlikely to work as expected.

Google and Apple don't agree on much. When they do, it's probably worth listening.

[Jareth]

2 minutes ago, limpid said:

It's not true.

There is no Google/Apple app.  Google and Apple are creating a standardised API which can only be used by apps from state level entities which will allow low level OS access to the bluetooth stack. This mean that a tracking app can make use of all the power saving and always-on features that an app would need. However, they require that the data from any app using this API is not stored centrally.

An app would record an anonymous identifier of devices within a certain range of you and store that data on your device for a few weeks. The app would ask if you are well or ask about symptoms. When covid-19 is suspected, the user would be asked to get tested. If a test is positive,  the list of anonymous identifiers which the user has interacted with is uploaded to a server. The apps belonging to those anonymous identifiers would see their own identifier and tell that user they need to be tested. No central database of user ids, movements or interactions is needed. 

You'd be a fool to install an app which is the result of the government outsourcing development to one of the party donors. You aren't sharing all your movement and interaction data with the government. You are sharing it with an organisation as incompetent as the people who couldn't set up testing centres (because they weren't qualified or experienced in developing such systems). Your data will be sold / leaked / lost before the end of this year even if you delete the app. Because they can't use the new API, it will also drain your battery and is unlikely to work as expected.

Google and Apple don't agree on much. When they do, it's probably worth listening.

Cheers for that - very informative. I suppose the problem is that we must have one app that is adopted by the majority - if it is to work. I absolutely hate the idea that someone will profit from this, I'm certain of that, so I suppose this is the epitome of opportunism, they know this is needed. I'll go along with it, not happily, but because we desperately need it to succeed. That said - I hope what you say is put out there more loudly and we can get some scrutiny of it all in advance. Trust is key - and this lot are short in that department. 

[Genie]

People asking does this help, does that help, is it transmitted this way, like this, in this scenario. Answers always the same  

 

[snowychap]

5 minutes ago, Jareth said:

we can get some scrutiny of it all in advance

What scrutiny and where?

It's to be trialled this week and expected to be live soon after.

Parliamentary or legal oversight? That's a bit late if it's due out in the next week or two.

Will not be downloading or using any such app. Ever.

[Jareth]

1 minute ago, snowychap said:

What scrutiny and where?

It's to be trialled this week and expected to be live soon after.

Parliamentary or legal oversight? That's a bit late if it's due out in the next week or two.

Will not be downloading or using any such app. Ever.

Entirely reasonable. I'm open to it because I'd like it to work, it could be vital. But if they haven't made the case for it and failed to convince people of its importance cos too busy plotting to exploit a load of data then it's another failure of leadership. Would be a shame if it doesn't get the necessary take-up but if it doesn't they only have themselves to blame and its another own goal in this crisis.  

[markavfc40]

Back down to 76k tests yesterday with much less than that actually tested in terms of number of people. Not really a surprise that they had just gone all out to get to the 100k figure before end of month and I guess today is more realistic of where we are currently at,which given the low base we started from, is still not bad going in fairness.

They just make rods for their own backs don't they and it makes you wonder what else was over looked or not given the right level of attention at the arse end of last week whilst going all out to get this 100k figure that they themselves came up with.

Edited May 3, 2020 by markavfc40

[PaulC]

3 minutes ago, markavfc40 said:

Back down to 76k tests yesterday with much less than that actually tested in terms of number of people. Not really a surprise that they had just gone all out to get to the 100k figure before end of month and I guess today is more realistic of where we are currently at,which given the low base we started from, is still not bad going in fairness.

They just make rods for their own backs don't they and it makes you wonder what else was over looked or not given the right level of attention at the arse end of last week whilst going all out to get this 100k figure that they themselves came up with.

Figures were false though, because they included 40,000 tests which had just been posted. So its not far off the same amount of tests done really. 

[blandy]

38 minutes ago, limpid said:

It's not true.

There is no Google/Apple app.  Google and Apple are creating a standardised API which can only be used by apps from state level entities which will allow low level OS access to the bluetooth stack. This mean that a tracking app can make use of all the power saving and always-on features that an app would need. However, they require that the data from any app using this API is not stored centrally.

 

You'd be a fool to install an app which is the result of the government outsourcing development to one of the party donors. You aren't sharing all your movement and interaction data with the government. You are sharing it with an organisation as incompetent as the people who couldn't set up testing centres (because they weren't qualified or experienced in developing such systems). Your data will be sold / leaked / lost before the end of this year even if you delete the app. Because they can't use the new API, it will also drain your battery and is unlikely to work as expected.

Google and Apple don't agree on much. When they do, it's probably worth listening.

That's all completely right. I guess the difficulty is that "the government" doesn't have the ability to write a Covi app itself. I think one MP wrote one once - maybe the plum Chris mentioned? So maybe realistically they've got to outsource it to someone. Maybe an obvious establishment would be GCHQ? or DSTL or a defence company such as QinetiQ or DITS...but then again, people might also take umbrage at those types of organisations having access to "their data". In order to manage the collected data, the guvmint will probably understandably want to have complete access to it, even if it's not stored centrally - but in essence that amounts to the same thing. Is there a flawless way round it, Simon?

Also, On a "people" level we see that overwhelmingly people are supportive, more than, of being locked down and told exactly where to go (home) and who with (or not with) by the guvmint "because virus", but there's much more of a pushback from some when it comes to "they might see where I've been and who I've met/been near" even though the reason is also "because virus". It's sort of fascinating.

[limpid]

4 minutes ago, blandy said:

That's all completely right. I guess the difficulty is that "the government" doesn't have the ability to write a Covi app itself. I think one MP wrote one once - maybe the plum Chris mentioned? So maybe realistically they've got to outsource it to someone. Maybe an obvious establishment would be GCHQ? or DSTL or a defence company such as QinetiQ or DITS...but then again, people might also take umbrage at those types of organisations having access to "their data". In order to manage the collected data, the guvmint will probably understandably want to have complete access to it, even if it's not stored centrally - but in essence that amounts to the same thing. Is there a flawless way round it, Simon?

Also, On a "people" level we see that overwhelmingly people are supportive, more than, of being locked down and told exactly where to go (home) and who with (or not with) by the guvmint "because virus", but there's much more of a pushback from some when it comes to "they might see where I've been and who I've met/been near" even though the reason is also "because virus". It's sort of fascinating.

20% adoption of the app in the authoritarian city state of Singapore.

Quote

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-apps/bluetooth-phone-apps-for-tracking-covid-19-show-modest-early-results-idUKKCN2232A0

But even as cases in the country - which is in lockdown - have surged past 9,000, only about one in five people have downloaded the app, TraceTogether, which uses Bluetooth signals to log when people have been close to one another.

Also, not everyone has a smartphone, and a bluetooth device in your pocket is a dreadful way to detect whether you've been within two metres of a similarly "shielded" bluetooth device. There will be a LOT of false positives. There probably isn't a good technological solution so we must not pin all of our hopes on that. Track and trace is the only certain mechanism - let's hope that talk of 18,000 people being recruited to do that works out - I hope it's being coordinated by medical professionals.

Personally, if I was the government I wouldn't bother developing an app and hoping everyone installs it. I'd be doing widespread public testing, with tracking. It's not true though. I wouldn't have spent the last ten years shouting "austerity" and failing to plan for one of the most important items on the country's risk register. The crazy thing is, the stockpiling and readiness drills would have been money in the pockets of their donors - so this looks like incompetence rather than anything malicious.