Generic Virus Thread

[LondonLax]

13 minutes ago, Jareth said:

20% of people in New York city have antibodies - I have a feeling its going to prove higher than that in London. 

New York City has a population of 8.4m so that would suggest that some 1.7m people have had the virus in NYC and now have antibodies to show for it (obviously just a rough estimate). 

The number of deaths in NYC is listed as 13,500 from what I can see.

That would suggest the rate of death for the virus is 13,500 / 1,700,000 = 0.8% (I.e. about 8 times more deadly than the flu)

Edited May 4, 2020 by LondonLax

[Awol]

14 minutes ago, LondonLax said:

That would suggest the rate of death for the virus is 13,500 / 1,700,000 = 0.8% (I.e. about 8 times more deadly than the flu)

Broadly in line with what our CMO has suggested, a CFR of or around 1%. Still a whopping number when applied to an entire population. 

[Genie]

So is this antibody test a thing then? I thought it was not yet available, at least for use on scale.

[HanoiVillan]

10 minutes ago, Genie said:

So is this antibody test a thing then? I thought it was not yet available, at least for use on scale.

There are lots of different antibody tests, and some places have ones that they are confident in using. I wouldn't assume that they are all as useless as the ones we bought.

There are nevertheless questions about how the data was collected in New York, which was mostly I believe through doing tests at grocery stores, which may not provide a very random sample.

Edited May 4, 2020 by HanoiVillan

[HanoiVillan]

45 minutes ago, Jareth said:

20% of people in New York city have antibodies - I have a feeling its going to prove higher than that in London. 

I kind of feel the opposite . . . My impression is that our outbreak has been more evenly spread, and therefore proportionally less focused on London. Happy to be convinced otherwise though.

[blandy]

41 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

I kind of feel the opposite . . . My impression is that our outbreak has been more evenly spread, and therefore proportionally less focused on London. Happy to be convinced otherwise though.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/04/coronavirus-uk-how-many-confirmed-cases-are-there-in-my-area

Graphic from the link

[VILLAMARV]

Quote

University students in England will still have to pay full tuition fees even if their courses are taught online in the autumn, the government has said.

"We don't believe students will be entitled to reimbursement if the quality is there," universities minister Michelle Donelan said.

But the university sector's request for a £2bn bail-out has been rejected.

Universities had warned of financial danger from a reduction in overseas students because of coronavirus.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-52506283

In education news, the system at university level getting a little nudge from modernity, along with something that would certainly scare the bejebus out of South Wales University cities. (I know the article is based on England) The assumption of a shift in demand.

In Cardiff and Swansea a huge percentage of city centre building projects are now for student accommodation as the councils and universities chase higher and higher numbers of students. They really like the rich foreign students as they happily pay exorbitant fees to study in the uk. Taxi drivers are often sharing stories about loving the foreign students as they are awash with cash and tip well, unlike us miserly locals. A downturn now in their numbers could really hamper the local economy plans.

Interesting to me is the idea touted above by the universities minister that even though a massive change in the product could occur, that the price will not be altered. Static levels of 'quality' apparently. However, this line shoved down the article a bit may be more telling.

Quote

"Universities are still continuing with their overheads and their expenses during this time, and it's no fault of their own," she said.

For some cities I'm guessing they'll be too big to fail. 

Let's hope individuals and smaller businesses will be afforded the same level of empathy if their expected income streams take a battering when we get back up and running?

I'm sure most universities will have no problem getting loans. Which ones have overextended themselves chasing foreign student numbers in recent years however might start to become rather obvious as this unfolds.

Away from the economics of it all, surely there's a valid discussion to be had in the wider context around online learning and accreditation.

[bannedfromHandV]

25 minutes ago, VILLAMARV said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-52506283

In education news, the system at university level getting a little nudge from modernity, along with something that would certainly scare the bejebus out of South Wales University cities. (I know the article is based on England) The assumption of a shift in demand.

In Cardiff and Swansea a huge percentage of city centre building projects are now for student accommodation as the councils and universities chase higher and higher numbers of students. They really like the rich foreign students as they happily pay exorbitant fees to study in the uk. Taxi drivers are often sharing stories about loving the foreign students as they are awash with cash and tip well, unlike us miserly locals. A downturn now in their numbers could really hamper the local economy plans.

Interesting to me is the idea touted above by the universities minister that even though a massive change in the product could occur, that the price will not be altered. Static levels of 'quality' apparently. However, this line shoved down the article a bit may be more telling.

For some cities I'm guessing they'll be too big to fail. 

Let's hope individuals and smaller businesses will be afforded the same level of empathy if their expected income streams take a battering when we get back up and running?

I'm sure most universities will have no problem getting loans. Which ones have overextended themselves chasing foreign student numbers in recent years however might start to become rather obvious as this unfolds.

Away from the economics of it all, surely there's a valid discussion to be had in the wider context around online learning and accreditation.

Oh well, guess they could always make them available as affordable-housing solutions instead for the public.......................

[wazzap24]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52504409
 

Quote

A new drug developed by UK scientists to treat Covid-19 patients is being trialled at University Hospital Southampton. 

Developed by UK bio-tech company Synairgen, it uses a protein called interferon beta, which our bodies produce when we get a viral infection. 

Initial results from the trial are expected by the end of June.

 

[HanoiVillan]

1 hour ago, VILLAMARV said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-52506283

In education news, the system at university level getting a little nudge from modernity, along with something that would certainly scare the bejebus out of South Wales University cities. (I know the article is based on England) The assumption of a shift in demand.

In Cardiff and Swansea a huge percentage of city centre building projects are now for student accommodation as the councils and universities chase higher and higher numbers of students. They really like the rich foreign students as they happily pay exorbitant fees to study in the uk. Taxi drivers are often sharing stories about loving the foreign students as they are awash with cash and tip well, unlike us miserly locals. A downturn now in their numbers could really hamper the local economy plans.

Interesting to me is the idea touted above by the universities minister that even though a massive change in the product could occur, that the price will not be altered. Static levels of 'quality' apparently. However, this line shoved down the article a bit may be more telling.

For some cities I'm guessing they'll be too big to fail. 

Let's hope individuals and smaller businesses will be afforded the same level of empathy if their expected income streams take a battering when we get back up and running?

I'm sure most universities will have no problem getting loans. Which ones have overextended themselves chasing foreign student numbers in recent years however might start to become rather obvious as this unfolds.

Away from the economics of it all, surely there's a valid discussion to be had in the wider context around online learning and accreditation.

The decision not to allow reduced fees is the logical conclusion of the marketisation of the university sector that has occured over the last twenty years. Fees were sold from the beginning as reflecting the lifetime earning dividend that comes (came) from having a degree, and the normal arguments made were of the 'why should a binman subsidise an art history student' variety. Of course, if the whole value of university is as an investment in a piece of paper with some level of expected financial return, then you wouldn't expect complaints like 'I can't access the library' to hold much water.

In the end, the government will subsidise the sector enough to avoid institutions failing, both because universities are massive employers and because they're good for the balance of trade, but I'm sure the government won't want to make it easy.

On your final point, it's likely that universities will seek to aggressively expand into the online teaching space in the future. I expect the consequences of that will mostly be negative for students (in terms of quality of education they receive) and staff (in terms of their working conditions). However, maybe I'm wrong to be so pessimistic.

[chrisp65]

That new Zenith building in Cardiff is disgusting. An absolute eyesore, regardless of your views on what styles of architecture are pretty or not, it’s a giant turd. When they were after planning it was standard flats. The whole community told the planners it was clearly a con, it was always going to revert to yet more student accommodation in a swamped market. The apartment sizes simply weren’t viable as genuine living spaces, just student pods.

Sure enough, planning was granted against public opinion. When still only half built, change of use due to unforeseen change of economic circumstances: can we now make it student accommodation pretty please. Planning agreed and let them.

The whole planning / accommodation system is ****.

 

On the subject of distance learning, I’ve been amazed by my nipper’s experience in Uni. Final year, Uni has closed due to covid, absolutely no capacity for lecturers to use zoom or YouTube or skype. Lecturers still wanting printed copies of dissertations when students have gone home.

For the money, piss poor flexibility. But, interestingly, the students are a bit more savvy these days, they’ve lodged several complaints and have requested fee deductions / rebates for lectures and support they haven’t received and exams that will now be abandoned and based on previously submitted course work.

Basic contract law kinda kicks in when you’re paying £9k for something.

 

Edited May 4, 2020 by chrisp65

[snowychap]

4 hours ago, Awol said:

I’m not making a claim, just throwing in some fresh meat for speculation! 

Oh, indeed.

The claim is by the French doctor chap not you.

 

[snowychap]

1 hour ago, wazzap24 said:

Quote

interferon beta

 

That sounds like an alt-right insult.

Edited May 4, 2020 by snowychap

[HanoiVillan]

7 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

On the subject of distance learning, I’ve been amazed by my nipper’s experience in Uni. Final year, Uni has closed due to covid, absolutely no capacity for lecturers to use zoom or YouTube or skype. Lecturers still wanting printed copies of dissertations when students have gone home.

For the money, piss poor flexibility. But, interestingly, the students are a bit more savvy these days, they’ve lodged several complaints and have requested fee deductions / rebates for lectures and support they haven’t received and exams that will now be abandoned and based on previously submitted course work.

Basic contract law kinda kicks in when you’re paying £9k for something.

That's interesting. My own little part of uni has had fairly teething problems, but we've got basically everything up and running in time for teaching online in the new term, and we'll be able to deliver most of what we would have done face-to-face, though some assessments will have to change or be abandoned. I know it's more difficult in some subjects with a strong practical element though.

[chrisp65]

1 minute ago, HanoiVillan said:

That's interesting. My own little part of uni has had fairly teething problems, but we've got basically everything up and running in time for teaching online in the new term, and we'll be able to deliver most of what we would have done face-to-face, though some assessments will have to change or be abandoned. I know it's more difficult in some subjects with a strong practical element though.

Swansea Uni on a split course, one trenche of subjects have adapted reasonably, the other half of the degree, the half which includes the dissertation is an absolute shambles.

Just basics such as marking work that has already been submitted has collapsed. now, I can’t imagine, with no lectures and no one to one meetings and no intention to try and set up any form of distance learning there’s a whole department that can’t even get their shit together to mark papers they had already received.

My nipper is intending to do an I.T. Masters. At the moment, there’s one department insisting everything still has to be paper based submissions and can’t work out how they could set an exam for people sat in their own homes / digs. It can’t be a coincidence that the whole department look to be quite ‘senior’, lots of lecturers that look like they should have retired.

As I say, the other half of the course, came up with plans quite quickly and got a broad consensus amongst students that they were happy with timed homed assessments etc..

[VILLAMARV]

1 hour ago, chrisp65 said:

That new Zenith building in Cardiff is disgusting. An absolute eyesore, regardless of your views on what styles of architecture are pretty or not, it’s a giant turd.

[VILLAMARV]

3 hours ago, bannedfromHandV said:

Oh well, guess they could always make them available as affordable-housing solutions instead for the public.......................

Like the crispy one says, some of them won't really be suitable. 

Totally agree with the sentiment. 

Welcome to the slums of tomorrow.

[mjmooney]

Admittedly I wasn't on the teaching side, but in my nearly 30 years working in the university sector I saw some massive changes, mostly not for the better. Glad I got out when I did. 

[VILLAMARV]

3 hours ago, HanoiVillan said:

On your final point, it's likely that universities will seek to aggressively expand into the online teaching space in the future. I expect the consequences of that will mostly be negative for students (in terms of quality of education they receive) and staff (in terms of their working conditions). However, maybe I'm wrong to be so pessimistic

Oh, I like pessimism.

On the end users, eventually I'd have thought it will drive quality up what with a more open marketplace. 

Accreditation is tricky to envisage. 

Staff will undoubtedly fall by the wayside in terms of lecturers is surely a logical conclusion. Along with all the support roles that facilitate large numbers of people living on one site. 

Will it lead to a rise in research roles though? As the scramble for intellectual property and licensing thereof intensifies? I don't know. 

virus or not it's coming though right? Whether this virus hastens it will be interesting. Surely we'll see a scramble to be first to market. Perhaps the open university had the futuristic model all along. 

[HanoiVillan]

7 minutes ago, VILLAMARV said:

Oh, I like pessimism.

On the end users, eventually I'd have thought it will drive quality up what with a more open marketplace. 

Accreditation is tricky to envisage. 

Staff will undoubtedly fall by the wayside in terms of lecturers is surely a logical conclusion. Along with all the support roles that facilitate large numbers of people living on one site. 

Will it lead to a rise in research roles though? As the scramble for intellectual property and licensing thereof intensifies? I don't know. 

virus or not it's coming though right? Whether this virus hastens it will be interesting. Surely we'll see a scramble to be first to market. Perhaps the open university had the futuristic model all along. 

My comments on quality are because I can envisage a two-tier system emerging where online courses are the 'budget model' while face-to-face courses are the 'luxury model' (which can already be seen in other parts of the education market). Online learning will definitely be more convenient, but it will never be able to capture the intangibles of the face-to-face experience. If this were to happen, it could also lead to either weaker tutors being given the online roles, or else tutors being pressured into double workloads, which is where my fear about staff working conditions comes in.

Universities also won't want to abandon face-to-face as, as has been noted in the thread, vice-chancellors have been building more than the pharaohs and need to get most of it back. However, yes, a larger proportion of courses being delivered online is guaranteed in the future, because this virus has started the sector down that path.