Generic Virus Thread

[markavfc40]

The ONS coronavirus deaths in all settings released again tomorrow will be interesting and could well give the government more questions to answer. If they come in over 17k then that will mean on the same day comparisons we will be at more deaths than any other European country.

I think most of us already know we are going to be the worst hit country in Europe, certainly on first wave, but the government appear unwilling to acknowledge it. Maybe the data released tomorrow will mean they will have to.

Edited April 27, 2020 by markavfc40

[chrisp65]

4 minutes ago, markavfc40 said:

The ONS coronavirus deaths in all settings released again tomorrow will be interesting and could well give the government more questions to answer. If they come it over 17k then that will mean on the same day comparisons we will be at more deaths than any other European country.

I think most of us already know we are going to be the worst hit country in Europe, certainly on first wave, but the government appear unwilling to acknowledge it. Maybe the data released tomorrow will mean they will have to.

?

Didn’t we pass that a week ago, on registered hospital deaths alone? Or am I missing something?

 

[blandy]

2 hours ago, Genie said:

Matt Hancock is reading my posts  

3,100 critical care beds currently vacant and 42% of beds with oxygen are vacant.

He didn’t read mine when I said what you did, probably weeks ago, now, so well done. Though I wondered why the media weren’t asking about it

On 13/04/2020 at 16:36, blandy said:

the media concentrate a lot on comparison with other places and not at all on comparison with capacity to treat people. This seems to be missing a key factor, surely.

Yes we've had stories about Nightingale facilities, but not whether they're sufficient, more than sufficient,  etc. based on stats.

It's like there's a whole set of data missing, and not being sought.

It seems likely perhaps that early on there was a real fear/risk that the NHS might get overwhelmed completely, so the govt didn’t want to go there, but now they are confident, they are happy to provide the figures. The media folk should have been asking, the oppo should have, but eventually we got there.

[Jareth]

Christ. Panorama just laid it out very clearly. The government were warned to buy tons of PPE last year but chose not to. Then this year, they downgraded the status of the virus in order that they were no longer legally obliged to provide a higher level of PPE. Two thirds of all visors in the stockpile had walked. Counting a single glove as one unit of PPE, when it should have been a box. The absolute trickery that's been going on to protect folks from criticism and more likely to prevent prosecution at some point in the future is next level. 

Edited April 27, 2020 by Jareth

[markavfc40]

53 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

?

Didn’t we pass that a week ago, on registered hospital deaths alone? Or am I missing something?

 

The ONS figures lag around 11 days behind so the figures they release tomorrow will be from period ending 17th April I think.  Hospital deaths from coronavirus on that date showed at around 15k. Tomorrow will show all deaths on that date including those in care homes. 

Obviously hospital death figures are already above 21k as they are updated more quickly. The ONS figures will show how many deaths there had been inside and outside hospitals up to the 17th April.

The line they show as all UK settings on the global comparisons graph will move from day 25 to day 32 tomorrow and I'd expect that line will go above all other European countries at that same day comparison.

Not sure how well I have explained the above.

[chrisp65]

Yep, got that.

Still not sure it will be an absolute definitive figure - they’ve just realised north wales health trust hasn’t been submitting figures. Just presumed for a month they were doing really well!

[terrytini]

I thought this was very funny. Although since the guy who said it is part of a behavioural science team advising the Government, maybe it isn’t ( from the Guardian)

“One solution would be for landlords to ration how much beer they serve, to two or three pints, he said. Customers would then be politely asked to go home.”

...yeah right, that’d work

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/27/coronavirus-easing-uk-lockdown-require-tough-enforcement-rules?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

[Genie]

2 hours ago, terrytini said:

You are quite correct. Beds. How many. What type. What staff. Staff absentee/ illness levels current and forecast. What equipment. What medicines. What ancillary staff. What Porters. What current occupation/vacancy level. What occupation in 6 hours. More ? Less ? Factor in the weather forecasts. What % emergency provision held in reserve. How does this correlate to the next Hospital along. What about that Private Hospital. Where is the next best spillover location. Ambulances. Paramedics. Morgue capacity. Crematorium capacity. Coroners availability. 
 

And much more. Then add in Care Homes, sheltered housing etc. Then multiply it by 80, in the case of Wales ( 80 hospitals) and multiply it by god knows what for the Homes, Private facility’s and even surgeries. Co-ordination is required across all that.

And through the pharmaceutical supply chain and much more.

Then , the daily results of that need to be considered with the relevant ones from elsewhere, then decisions taken on resource distribution and the effect of these decisions monitored.

I have no idea what the answer is to the original question, but the “ admin” is rather complex to say the least. Which is why Senior people are involved.

So you’re saying that counting the amount of free beds we have is too complex for the NHS to be expected to report? Very odd indeed, especially in a pandemic that has led the government to create thousands of extra beds because they know they will come under severe pressure...

 

[Guardian_Angel_M]

Hi everyone, long time VT member but haven't posted in recent times. I've kept my interest on everything Claret n Blue since JPA days, I've followed everything that happened during the Lerner era and I was very happy with promotion to the Premier League. I just wanted to say hi during these difficult times, here in Colombia we've had an expected inept government doing absurd things and people not taking the situation seriously enough. The hospitality and tourism sector has been hit the hardest economically speaking and I recently got fired as I worked at a restaurant and obviously was very difficult to maintain the income flowing to sustain the staff. Fortunately I have enough savings for a couple months so I shall be alright. I hope every Villa supporter can get through this in all levels and wishing you all good health and fortune.

Cheers

[DCJonah]

 

[VILLAMARV]

17 minutes ago, Genie said:

So you’re saying that counting the amount of free beds we have is too complex for the NHS to be expected to report? Very odd indeed, especially in a pandemic that has led the government to create thousands of extra beds because they know they will come under severe pressure...

 

He hasn't said that and neither have I. Where are you getting this from? 

What has been said (by me) is that it is more complex than your posts suggested you perceived it to be. 

[Genie]

5 minutes ago, VILLAMARV said:

He hasn't said that and neither have I. Where are you getting this from? 

What has been said (by me) is that it is more complex than your posts suggested you perceived it to be. 

It’s not hard at all is all I’m trying to say. It’s counting the beds and then reporting that figure to a designated person who is collating the numbers. It’s the simplest form of logistics that they could be doing. I appreciate they are very busy, but it’s certainly not difficult. 

[terrytini]

42 minutes ago, Genie said:

So you’re saying that counting the amount of free beds we have is too complex for the NHS to be expected to report? Very odd indeed, especially in a pandemic that has led the government to create thousands of extra beds because they know they will come under severe pressure...

 

No I didn't say any such thing.

[VILLAMARV]

19 minutes ago, Genie said:

It’s not hard at all is all I’m trying to say. It’s counting the beds and then reporting that figure to a designated person who is collating the numbers. It’s the simplest form of logistics that they could be doing. I appreciate they are very busy, but it’s certainly not difficult. 

Thankfully, the rest of the conversation is available for people to peruse or scroll past at their leisure. We reached where we are as a result of you wondering whether the govt would have hourly figures, then daily figures available to them. You seem to have conveniently forgotten our conversation started by me giving you a link to the nhs data you wondered about (in wales at least) and now quite bizarrely trying to rewrite what has been said to suggest I/we am/are saying "it's too complex for the nhs"

I wholeheartedly believe nhs staff, civil servants and many more people will be doing everything in their power to solve the complex issues this pandemic has presented to us as a nation. Certain reasoning has been offered to you to consider why your belief or perception may not be the reality. You were invited to engage with that in good faith and for whatever reason have decided not to in order to assert your 'it's really simple' hypothesis. You are obviously welcome to ignore it all if you like. Thankfully those involved in the decision making won't be. 

[Brumstopdogs]

 

 

[Awol]

Kids...

[Genie]

22 minutes ago, VILLAMARV said:

You seem to have conveniently forgotten our conversation started by me giving you a link to the nhs data you wondered about (in wales at least) and now quite bizarrely trying to rewrite what has been said to suggest I/we am/are saying "it's too complex for the nhs"

I wholeheartedly believe nhs staff, civil servants and many more people will be doing everything in their power to solve the complex issues this pandemic has presented to us as a nation. Certain reasoning has been offered to you to consider why your belief or perception may not be the reality. You were invited to engage with that in good faith and for whatever reason have decided not to in order to assert your 'it's really simple' hypothesis. You are obviously welcome to ignore it all if you like. Thankfully those involved in the decision making won't be. 

I’m not sure what this is all about “invited to engage”.

I said it would be useful to know what the capacity of critical care beds would be at any given time. Your retort was it’s really difficult because it’s lots of organisations.

I said I’m sure the government will have this data given how important it is to avoid the NHS being overrun and you suggested again it would be too difficult for them to know. You suggested that it could be possible if the NHS got the armed forces in to help which was very strange. Each institution which has beds reports the figures to a central collector of the data at set intervals, who collate it for the politicians, it couldn’t be simpler.

I haven’t rewritten or conventionally forgotten anything. It was a simple query which coincidentally Matt Hancock addressed by presenting the current qty if available critical care beds and those with oxygen in tonight’s briefing. It will be constantly monitored in certain.

[terrytini]

That awful awful man has absolutely no sense of shame or decency.

The suffering of Americans has barely merited a mention in a Press Conference which has been exclusively about how fantastic he is.

Sickening. And I’m afraid I’m also sickened that anyone can support him. 

[VILLAMARV]

@Genie, to be honest, I had come back to delete most of my reply. I don't want to sound all snarky (I am fallible). Having had the post quoted it would be kind of pointless at this point. 

I think we've said what we have to on the matter and i'm not sure what value is being added at this point. I think the points we've exchanged stand on their own merits. 

Big hugs and utv.

[HanoiVillan]

Lewis Goodall has been one of the few voices in the media focusing on the terrible situation in care homes. Here's an extract of his wider stuff tonight from Newsnight that I would encourage people to watch:

Here's a Twitter thread where he lays out some of the dynamics at play in what is becoming an increasing crisis in the care sector that could see parts of it collapse in the near future. It's long-ish, but it's worth reading: