Generic Virus Thread

[theboyangel]

6 hours ago, DCJonah said:

He claims this is an authentic email doing the rounds. Obviously not confirmed anywhere and potentially could be complete bullshit but thought I'd share with the 'fake news' warning. 

My mates 13yr old lad has had chilblain type marks on his feet, which local NHS have taken a great interest in.

fortunately, he and his family all checked and confirmed as negative for C-19. 

[Genie]

1 hour ago, VILLAMARV said:

I can go along with this, assuming by live log you mean a minimum wage admin assistant somewhere filling in numbers to columns in a spreadsheet. 

I assume we have posters here who could confirm or deny such things but are contractually obliged not to. (This is not code for me, i'm just an angry tramp)

The point I was making about the data collection being fragmented is visible in the death rates logged with the ons rather publically at the moment, and they have a fairly sophisticated mechanism there, manual not automated, but we can see the complicated issues around collection of one single data point. 

The nhs in Wales, overseen by public health wales, is comprised of hundreds of different organisations. It's more complicated than a simple phone call to the department of health.

I don’t understand why it’s so difficult, each hospital reports the amount of beds it has, and then the amount of them that are in use.
It would get collated up through the various levels of how hospitals are grouped up to government level who have an overall view.

Its like most other big organisations. Supervisors send info to their manager, manager sends the figures from all his supervisors to the senior manager, senior manager sends the overall number to the director, director sends it to the CEO.

I imagine by now they have a pretty slick process of reporting bed capacity in the required time intervals. Possibly using a shared office365 or Google sheet. Piece of piss in 2020.

Edited April 27, 2020 by Genie

[VILLAMARV]

3 minutes ago, Genie said:

I don’t understand why it’s so difficult, each hospital reports the amount of beds it has, and then the amount of them that are in use.
It would get collated up through the various levels of how hospitals are grouped up to government level who have an overall view.

Its like most other big organisations. Supervisors send info to their manager, manager sends the figures from all his supervisors to the senior manager, senior manager sends the overall number to the director, director sends it to the CEO.

I image by now they have a pretty slick process of reporting bed capacity in the required time intervals. 

Perhaps, if the above post is true it would suggest the forces have been drafted in to fulfill this role, which in turn would suggest there was previously no such mechanism in place. 

Don't forget in England the various trusts are in competition with each other over care provision. It's not necessarily one organisation as per the company model you cite.

That's before I throw the question back to you of define 'in use' does that mean occupied? With a patient in it receiving treatment? With a dead body in it? After the sheets have been changed? And define 'critical care bed' is that on an icu ward? A bed with a ventilator next to it? etc.

It's not a binary thing that's easily defined. Hence its a burgeoning multi million pound industry. 

[Genie]

Sorry @VILLAMARV but I’m just not having it for a second. The biggest crisis in a lifetime and you think the NHS needs the army to count the beds and report how many have people lying in them to the PM. Nope.

[VILLAMARV]

8 minutes ago, Genie said:

Sorry @VILLAMARV but I’m just not having it for a second. The biggest crisis in a lifetime and you think the NHS needs the army to count the beds and report how many have people lying in them to the PM. Nope.

Cool, I'm not here to change the way people think and im not trying to be obtuse. 

We can agree to disagree on stuff. 

You posed a good question at the start of this back and forth. 

Edit: also i don't believe I said that i think that

 

Edited April 27, 2020 by VILLAMARV
Added bit

[bannedfromHandV]

1 hour ago, Genie said:

Didn't they start such a programme but it was ludicrously expensive and late and ended up collapsing? 

That’s because they employed the wrong people to do it, no offence to anyone individually who may have been a part of the project but as with (seemingly) all government projects they farm out the work to big names like Fujitsu who then don’t give a shit about it and drive it into the ground through piss poor management

Edited April 27, 2020 by bannedfromHandV

[mjmooney]

1 hour ago, VILLAMARV said:

Exactly this. 

My point about the google and amazon link ups is that I suspect, like me, the vast majority of people would prefer this to be in house and bound by law. I suspect the appeal to those in power would be to outsource this function to the private sector. In the name of economic savings and diminished responsibility.

Spot on. And the result of outsourcing it is communications anarchy. My daughter works for one of the big consultancy firms that write NHS systems (no names, no pack drill) and she says the incompetence and waste of money (by both sides) is staggering. 

[bannedfromHandV]

1 hour ago, VILLAMARV said:

Exactly this. 

My point about the google and amazon link ups is that I suspect, like me, the vast majority of people would prefer this to be in house and bound by law. I suspect the appeal to those in power would be to outsource this function to the private sector. In the name of economic savings and diminished responsibility.

Yep, it’s exactly what they do, there are some big organisations who have made an awful lot of money out of this country and have returned very little, Fujitsu, EDS (before they were acquired), CapGemini, Computacenter etc.

If someone were to properly review these projects I’m sure an awful lot of fraudulent activity will have transpired, we’ve ploughed hundreds of millions of £ into projects to then tear them up and bin them entirely, it’s really really bad.

[VILLAMARV]

39 minutes ago, Genie said:

I imagine by now they have a pretty slick process of reporting bed capacity in the required time intervals. Possibly using a shared office365 or Google sheet. Piece of piss in 2020.

I'm not trying to prolong things I promise but I noticed this edit. 

Theoretically yes, do they do it, maybe.

Would this be ethical though? Passing patient data through American servers not bound by uk data protection laws and so on. 

(Bed numbers may not be classed as patient data, but do you see the point? It's more complicated than the perception)

[Lichfield Dean]

31 minutes ago, bannedfromHandV said:

That’s because they employed the wrong people to do it, no offence to anyone individually who may have been a part of the project but as with (seemingly) all government projects they farm out the work to big names like Fujitsu who then don’t give a shit about it and drive it into the ground through piss poor management

Yep. As I mentioned in a previous post, the big companies just seemed to take a slice of the budget before subcontracting out to smaller companies. The whole thing was a commercial, sales-driven, profit-is-king project from the start and was a total disaster.

[Genie]

9 minutes ago, VILLAMARV said:

I'm not trying to prolong things I promise but I noticed this edit. 

Theoretically yes, do they do it, maybe.

Would this be ethical though? Passing patient data through American servers not bound by uk data protection laws and so on. 

(Bed numbers may not be classed as patient data, but do you see the point? It's more complicated than the perception)

I don’t see the point at all and it looks a bit like straw clutching.
One of the very first bits of information that would have been gathered when this pandemic kicked off would be around capacity to treat people with the virus. This would be monitored and reported out regularly to ensure head room was constantly available. I can’t for a second believe that the PM and his supporting crew don’t have access to that data constantly evolving because it’s slightly tricky to pull together. Of all the huge logistical challenges the NHS are currently facing, how many people they have in beds at any one time is nowhere near the hardest to report.

The way they do it is also irrelevant, and even so, many businesses all over the world trust Google and Microsoft with their sensitive data. 

[VILLAMARV]

26 minutes ago, bannedfromHandV said:

CapGemini

10 billion that one I think. Nothing back. Still a service provider! 

It's horrific. 

[VILLAMARV]

We probably in danger of straying off topic. 

11 minutes ago, Genie said:

I don’t see the point at all and it looks a bit like straw clutching.
One of the very first bits of information that would have been gathered when this pandemic kicked off would be around capacity to treat people with the virus. This would be monitored and reported out regularly to ensure head room was constantly available. I can’t for a second believe that the PM and his supporting crew don’t have access to that data constantly evolving because it’s slightly tricky to pull together. Of all the huge logistical challenges the NHS are currently facing, how many people they have in beds at any one time is nowhere near the hardest to report.

I'm not saying they don't have some numbers in front of them. I'm suggesting the bureaucratic processes involved may lead to a lag in the collation, as we see evidenced in the 'daily' death totals.

11 minutes ago, Genie said:

The way they do it is also irrelevant, and even so, many businesses all over the world trust Google and Microsoft with their sensitive data. 

They cant just pick and choose what laws they like to follow... (did i just do a funny?)

I assume the forces have IT provision covered by secrecy law (I f***ing hope so). Their involvement makes sense on this level. Top secret info shouldn't be passed around in a google doc. 

[VILLAMARV]

All afternoon on data science! I suspect everyone else is happily following trumps advice now!  

[Genie]

Matt Hancock is reading my posts  

3,100 critical care beds currently vacant and 42% of beds with oxygen are vacant.

Edited April 27, 2020 by Genie

[bickster]

So Hat Mancock has gone all Corbyn with his questions from the public...

Just let journalists ask the questions they need to ask

Picked by an independent polling company... my arse

[bannedfromHandV]

37 minutes ago, Genie said:

Matt Hancock is reading my posts  

3,100 critical care beds currently vacant and 42% of beds with oxygen are vacant.

Is that including the nightingale setups or is that based off what we had before they were built do you know? 

[Genie]

33 minutes ago, bannedfromHandV said:

Is that including the nightingale setups or is that based off what we had before they were built do you know? 

Not sure tbh. I assume the Nightingales fall into the beds with oxygen 42% rather than critical care 3,100. 
Whitty also had a slide of capacity split by country of the UK

Edited April 27, 2020 by Genie

[Morley_crosses_to_Withe]

5 hours ago, LondonLax said:

You can see the breakdown for children in the EuroMOMO website. Deaths amongst children 0-4 and 5-14 are well below average at the moment. Unfortunately they don’t breakdown the adult categories into small enough groups to be able to see what is happening there.

  https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/

Also, a study from Australia indicates that children do not seem to spread the virus and are far more likely to be asymptomatic. The infection rates in schools are far below the infection rates seen in the general population.

https://www.smh.com.au/national/safe-as-houses-covid-19-study-clears-nsw-schools-for-student-return-20200425-p54n6i.html

Whilst this might be true, it’s somewhat of a concern that there’s been an observable increase in children needing intensive care treatment in London. If this trend continues, and there’s a definite link to COVID—19, then this could be quite an insidious development. 

Edited April 27, 2020 by Morley_crosses_to_Withe

[terrytini]

3 hours ago, VILLAMARV said:

Perhaps, if the above post is true it would suggest the forces have been drafted in to fulfill this role, which in turn would suggest there was previously no such mechanism in place. 

Don't forget in England the various trusts are in competition with each other over care provision. It's not necessarily one organisation as per the company model you cite.

That's before I throw the question back to you of define 'in use' does that mean occupied? With a patient in it receiving treatment? With a dead body in it? After the sheets have been changed? And define 'critical care bed' is that on an icu ward? A bed with a ventilator next to it? etc.

It's not a binary thing that's easily defined. Hence its a burgeoning multi million pound industry. 

You are quite correct. Beds. How many. What type. What staff. Staff absentee/ illness levels current and forecast. What equipment. What medicines. What ancillary staff. What Porters. What current occupation/vacancy level. What occupation in 6 hours. More ? Less ? Factor in the weather forecasts. What % emergency provision held in reserve. How does this correlate to the next Hospital along. What about that Private Hospital. Where is the next best spillover location. Ambulances. Paramedics. Morgue capacity. Crematorium capacity. Coroners availability. 
 

And much more. Then add in Care Homes, sheltered housing etc. Then multiply it by 80, in the case of Wales ( 80 hospitals) and multiply it by god knows what for the Homes, Private facility’s and even surgeries. Co-ordination is required across all that.

And through the pharmaceutical supply chain and much more.

Then , the daily results of that need to be considered with the relevant ones from elsewhere, then decisions taken on resource distribution and the effect of these decisions monitored.

I have no idea what the answer is to the original question, but the “ admin” is rather complex to say the least. Which is why Senior people are involved.

Edited April 27, 2020 by terrytini