Generic Virus Thread

[Genie]

Lots of business trying to get back to work announced in the last few days. KFC, Pret, B&Q, JLR, Nissan, Aston Martin to name a few.

Are they acting in defiance of the government “advice”? Big decision time for Boris and Raab. Do they leave them too it, or remind them who is in charge. Could get interesting.

[Genie]

11 minutes ago, LondonLax said:

This is going to be a problem everywhere. Even once a lockdown is relaxed plenty of people will be fearful of going out for a long time to come.

Very much this.

We’re booked today go to Spain in July school holidays. Balance is due today. We’ve already paid the £800 deposit.

It seems likely that it’ll not happen but my wife and I are both concerned that if it does, we won’t really want to be in a large all inclusive holiday resort with thousands of people so soon.

We looked at moving to next year but holiday companies have covered this off as prices are much higher than now. They look at +30-50% on this years prices. TUI are also not offering free amendments yet (will be £50 x 4).

The plan is to pay the balance and wait it out and see who blinks first. If it looks like it might happened when it gets around 30 days before we’ll take the hit and transfer to 2021. If not and they cancel it we’ll push for a refund.

[OutByEaster?]

19 minutes ago, Genie said:

Are they acting in defiance of the government “advice”? Big decision time for Boris and Raab. Do they leave them too it, or remind them who is in charge. Could get interesting.

I think government might currently be in the process of being reminded who is actually in charge - there's a big move from the banks to get the economy started asap, it's being subtly pushed in all sorts of places (and less subtly in the US).

 

[bannedfromHandV]

35 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

Very much this. There are two interlocked crises - a public health one, and an economic one. Governments need to give confidence on both fronts to solve the latter, because people won't spend and businesses won't invest if they think they will get sick or that we will re-enter lockdown (so people won't go to restaurants or hotels anyway), and people will delay purchasing big-ticket items like cars and houses if they think they might lose a job or some hours in the near future.

Oh I don’t know, I think there’ll be a reduction for sure but (here in the UK at least) I can see everyone flocking to pubs, restaurants and shops like flies to shit! 
 

Me and the missus have already got our restaurants lined up for the first week of normality, I reckon plenty of others will too.

[Awol]

38 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

I don't think this is mainly on the banks. The problem is that Sunak keeps following up statements of the 'of course I'll do anything it takes' variety, with others of the 'of course it'll all have to be paid back eventually' variety. If banks think they're going to be on the hook for non-performing loans in the future, then yes, they're going to charge interest rates and do time-consuming investigations of businesses credit-worthiness, because there isn't 0% risk.

But that’s the point of the 100% government guarantee on the loan. When that happens the banks face zero risk b/c default means the Treasury picks up the balance.  At that point the justification for any interest rate above 0.1% for admin goes out of the window - imo. 

While we’re at it, Starmer said in PMQs that banks were raising interest rates on overdrafts to 40% in July. First I’d heard of it but if that’s right it’s bordering on criminal exploitation of the hardest hit at the worst possible time.

If Johnson allows this kind of thing to happen his current approval ratings will rightly dissolve. 

[HanoiVillan]

3 minutes ago, bannedfromHandV said:

Oh I don’t know, I think there’ll be a reduction for sure but (here in the UK at least) I can see everyone flocking to pubs, restaurants and shops like flies to shit! 
 

Me and the missus have already got our restaurants lined up for the first week of normality, I reckon plenty of others will too.

How will you decide when 'normality' is? If there still seem to be lots of cases in the community, but the government stops financial support for restaurants and allows them to open, would that be enough for you?

[HanoiVillan]

1 minute ago, Awol said:

But that’s the point of the 100% government guarantee on the loan. When that happens the banks face zero risk b/c default means the Treasury picks up the balance.  At that point the justification for any interest rate above 0.1% for admin goes out of the window - imo. 

While we’re at it, Starmer said in PMQs that banks were raising interest rates on overdrafts to 40% in July. First I’d heard of it but if that’s right it’s bordering on criminal exploitation of the hardest hit at the worst possible time.

If Johnson allows this kind of thing to happen his current approval ratings will rightly dissolve. 

Yes, you're right, if the 100% government guarantee actually happens then there shouldn't need to be large interest rates. I also haven't heard about interest rates on overdrafts, that's interesting.

[bannedfromHandV]

9 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

How will you decide when 'normality' is? If there still seem to be lots of cases in the community, but the government stops financial support for restaurants and allows them to open, would that be enough for you?

Pretty much yes, once pubs and restaurants are open again that would indicate a reasonable level of normality once more, personally at least.

I think this virus will eventually become another accepted risk within society, one more for the long list of things that could kill you, unless of course a robust vaccine is created in which case it’s all gravy  

[LondonLax]

3 minutes ago, bannedfromHandV said:

Pretty much yes, once pubs and restaurants are open again that would indicate a reasonable level of normality once more, personally at least.

I think this virus will eventually become another accepted risk within society, one more for the long list of things that could kill you, unless of course a robust vaccine is created in which case it’s all gravy  

Here in Sweden I can go to a pub or restaurant right now but I’m keeping my head down until this passes. 

If the lockdown is released in the U.K. and people are allowed to go to pubs and restaurants there as well, but the virus is still around, plenty will be still keeping their heads down and staying indoors voluntarily (obviously some will head out anyway, as is happening here). 

The point was that businesses might be able to start trading again but they are likely to see reduced numbers of customers. 

Edited April 24, 2020 by LondonLax

[Seat68]

19 minutes ago, bannedfromHandV said:

Oh I don’t know, I think there’ll be a reduction for sure but (here in the UK at least) I can see everyone flocking to pubs, restaurants and shops like flies to shit! 
 

Me and the missus have already got our restaurants lined up for the first week of normality, I reckon plenty of others will too.

Pre Restaurant Pub, Restaurant and Post Restaurant Pub. All planned. 

[snowychap]

19 minutes ago, Awol said:

While we’re at it, Starmer said in PMQs that banks were raising interest rates on overdrafts to 40% in July. First I’d heard of it but if that’s right it’s bordering on criminal exploitation of the hardest hit at the worst possible time.

Banks were instructed to change their policies on overdrafts by the FCA and that was due to happen at the start of April, I think.

Basically it was that they were going to charge a rate of interest for all overdrafts instead of a fee and interest as a lot did in the case of arranged overdrafts.

Pretty much all of the high st banks coalesced around a figure of just uinder 405 APR and this was what was due to come in but, with the circumstances as they are and the FCA instructing them to look at helping people out, some have waived any charges (Barclays, I think) and others have reduced theirs (NatWest, for example, are charging 19.89%). These reducttions are temporary and the timescale is 3 months so in July they're expected to go up to the levels that banks had notified customers about before the virus hit.

Edit:

NatWest, for example -

Quote

Overdraft interest staying at current rates

From Monday 30th March until 14th July, all of our Personal Banking customers using their overdraft will pay less as we’re keeping overdraft interest at their current rates.

Most customers will pay Representative 19.89% APR (variable) for that period, rather than our standard rate of Representative 39.49% APR (variable).

 

Edited April 24, 2020 by snowychap

[OutByEaster?]

5 minutes ago, bannedfromHandV said:

Pretty much yes, once pubs and restaurants are open again that would indicate a reasonable level of normality once more, personally at least.

How open is open? 

I think restaurants will open with restrictions on attendance - number of people in a party, spacing between tables, that sort of thing - I think pubs will have restrictions on the number of people they let in, and I think there will be a staggering of openings with different types of business opening in different ways. 

I can't see there just being a day where a green light goes on and the nation piles into the pub for a jolly up - I just don't see it happening that way.

[Awol]

Failure to comply with social clapping. Scandalous. 

[HanoiVillan]

12 minutes ago, bannedfromHandV said:

Pretty much yes, once pubs and restaurants are open again that would indicate a reasonable level of normality once more, personally at least.

I think this virus will eventually become another accepted risk within society, one more for the long list of things that could kill you, unless of course a robust vaccine is created in which case it’s all gravy  

Fair enough, it wasn't a trick question! Some people clearly will be happy to take the risk.

The reasons why I don't think the numbers will be large enough to be viable are two-fold: firstly, pubs and restaurants may be allowed to open, but there may still be onerous capacity restrictions or other rules to maintain social distancing (tables two metres apart, reducing seating, stand on the X's on the floor, you must wear a mask, things like that). Secondly, numbers were way down before restaurants officially closed, as shown in OpenTable bookings (mostly American cities, but data from London is included):

(from: https://www.vox.com/2020/4/22/21228651/opening-up-save-economy-trump-coronavirus-pandemic-shutdown)

The table shows the proportion of restaurant bookings on a day in 2020 compared to in 2019. Of course, when restaurants are closed by force of law, bookings are down 100%, but there were steep falls in bookings before those orders came into place.

However, it is possible that people will act differently when coming out of a shutdown than when going into one.

 

Edited April 24, 2020 by HanoiVillan

[Seat68]

2 minutes ago, Awol said:

Failure to comply with social clapping. Scandalous. 

I am prepared to go out on a limb here and say never happened. 

[OutByEaster?]

3 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

However, it is possible that people will act differently when coming out of a shutdown than when going into one.

Given the nature of the great British drinker, if the opportunity opens up, we'll go on a massive four day bender immediately; the resulting pressure on A&E's and the health service in general doesn't bear thinking about.

How pubs and restaurants reopen will be a very interesting thing - how the restrictions will be decided on, who will enforce them, that sort of thing.

 

[Genie]

Restaurants could be fairly easy, reduced capacity, only prebooked tables etc. 
Pubs that rely on walk in trade not so easy.

Edited April 24, 2020 by Genie

[VILLAMARV]

Quote

State surveillance 'a price worth paying'

A major increase in state surveillance is a "price worth paying" to beat Covid-19, a UK think tank says.

The Tony Blair Institute for Global Change (TBI), founded by the former prime minister, says it could offer an "escape route" from the crisis.

In a report, the institute argues the public must accept a level of intrusion that would normally "be out of the question in liberal democracies".

The rollout of contact-tracing apps has provoked a global debate.

The paper argues all governments must choose one of three undesirable outcomes: an overwhelmed health system, economic shutdown, or increased surveillance.

"Compared to the alternatives, leaning in to the aggressive use of the technology to help stop the spread of Covid-19... is a reasonable proposition," it says

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-wales-52395876

And there it is. Expect the advertising campaign next. 

[Demitri_C]

15 hours ago, snowychap said:

Well, I think that's a bit of a different point than you were making previously, Dem, and I get what you mean about how much faith one can put in the 40k capacity number but those are the numbers being touted by public health officials and ministers as the capacity.

Just to make it clear, I'll join in with what @HanoiVillansaid in a post earlier this evening about being perfectly happy to take your word on your observations of the situation at first hand*. Beyond that it's about what inferences we can draw from those observations and where they fit in to the overall picture. That's about more than just the gathering of data and anecdote.

*I was also going to say that I'd hoped I'd made it clear that the input from people with 'on the ground' observations is important but I went back and looked at my posts in response to you and, though it was in my mind when making them, it didn't appear that I expressed that so I will do so now.

No worries mate

 

 as the clinical staff are so influxed dealing with patients. They should put a plan in place to help make as many tests daily for staff. This for me is quickest solution.

[Awol]

9 minutes ago, VILLAMARV said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-wales-52395876

And there it is. Expect the advertising campaign next. 

The Tony Blair Institute of authoritarian socialism, on the wrong side of civil liberties since 1997.