HanoiVillan Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 From the thread @wilko154 posted: So, someone who is extremely likely to have coronavirus, but not tested, because we've decided not to bother most of the time any more, yet there's Tory MP's doing victory laps on Twitter about the rate of infection: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leighavfc Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 Holland to go into lockdown today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted March 15, 2020 Moderator Share Posted March 15, 2020 15 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said: Utter Bellend EDIT: He's also now decided that it was an unwise tweet because it could be misinterpretted (He see's that now) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foreveryoung Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 4 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said: From the thread @wilko154 posted: So, someone who is extremely likely to have coronavirus, but not tested, because we've decided not to bother most of the time any more, yet there's Tory MP's doing victory laps on Twitter about the rate of infection: The UK are gonna be the Bollocks if this Strategy works. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 1 minute ago, bickster said: Utter Bellend He’s getting stuck in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 14 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said: From the thread @wilko154 posted: So, someone who is extremely likely to have coronavirus, but not tested, because we've decided not to bother most of the time any more, yet there's Tory MP's doing victory laps on Twitter about the rate of infection: It’s not because governments can’t be bothered testing (obviously) it is because there is a shortage of the reagent chemical required for the tests, so governments around the world are rationing the tests to just the riskiest patients. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 3 minutes ago, LondonLax said: It’s not because governments can’t be bothered testing (obviously) it is because there is a shortage of the reagent chemical required for the tests, so governments around the world are rationing the tests to just the riskiest patients. Yes, you're right, that is why we're not doing it. I'm just fed up of people pretending that we're doing great, just because we don't have the data to show that we aren't, when actually the situation is much much worse than the numbers suggest. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 A lack of tests being carried out will clearly make the death rate appear much worse than it actually is. Not just that, but many people will have had this/ get it, and either be mostly unaware, or just feel a bit under the weather. These cases will clearly not be recorded either. So the actual death rate will be much lower than is currently being touted. 1% tops. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, Jon said: A lack of tests being carried out will clearly make the death rate appear much worse than it actually is. Not just that, but many people will have had this/ get it, and either be mostly unaware, or just feel a bit under the weather. These cases will clearly not be recorded either. So the actual death rate will be much lower than is currently being touted. 1% tops. Indeed, yon Tory MP ought to be thankful for that, because if our 2.6% current case fatality rate were actually real, then the death rate once the health system starts really struggling would be even worse. He'd be wiser to be talking about how much larger the numbers infected are than they appear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 1 minute ago, Jon said: A lack of tests being carried out will clearly make the death rate appear much worse than it actually is. Not just that, but many people will have had this/ get it, and either be mostly unaware, or just feel a bit under the weather. These cases will clearly not be recorded either. So the actual death rate will be much lower than is currently being touted. 1% tops. No doubt. It’s the lack of ability to stop it that is the problem. You can only assume that the majority of the population will get it at some point the the next 12 months and so a 1% death rate becomes a big number. Also, if everyone gets it at the same time hospitals will not be able to help all those who need it so unnecessary deaths then increase. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Awol Posted March 15, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted March 15, 2020 1 hour ago, Genie said: Does it suggest that isolation not necessarily a solution in all scenarios? It’ll be crippling the economy and not offering much in the way of a solution. I wonder why it’s being so ineffective in Italy? Caveat: I’m not qualified to talk about this stuff, it’s just a layman’s observation. The infection has spread widely prior to lockdown in Italy, as a result people with the virus are developing symptoms once behind their doors (generally 5-14 days after infection) then continuing to spread it to family groups while confined to their homes. Like those cruise ships but on a tiny scale and multiplied 1000’s of times. Their healthcare system is inevitably going to fall over unfortunately, meaning an increasing mortality rate. Spain is on the same track, we probably all are. In terms of what it means for UK, the strategy is to fill our ICUs to almost capacity, and then put the quarantine measures in to level off the rate of spread. If the above about Italy is correct then that isn’t going to work, the number of cases will continue rising afterwards and overtop the NHS capacity to provide care. For at risk groups the best options are: 1) don’t get sick, 2) get sick now while the capacity to care for them exists or 3) be the last to get sick. Option one’s looking like a strong favourite to me! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 The effect of lockdowns will take several days to show up in the data; I wouldn't read much into how it is working yet. It would be very surprising if lockdowns didn't make some substantial difference. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingman Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 Prophetic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 1 minute ago, HanoiVillan said: The effect of lockdowns will take several days to show up in the data; I wouldn't read much into how it is working yet. It would be very surprising if lockdowns didn't make some substantial difference. Yeah, I agree. There will be a lag for sure. I just found it surprisingly that Italy has been locked down for over a week (?) but still spiking day on day. Was it not well imposed/observed initially maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markavfc40 Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 37 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said: From the thread @wilko154 posted: So, someone who is extremely likely to have coronavirus, but not tested, because we've decided not to bother most of the time any more, yet there's Tory MP's doing victory laps on Twitter about the rate of infection: Our death rates are soon going to start to look terrible though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted March 15, 2020 VT Supporter Share Posted March 15, 2020 As only 70% alcohol can kill it my survival plan is to stay as pissed as possible for the next 7 months. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leighavfc Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 2 minutes ago, Genie said: Was it not well imposed/observed initially maybe? Apparently not when they first closed just the north off, roads in and out were open, flights were still landing in uk and other countries upto a couple of days after the ban. I think it probably really came into effect this around time last week when they shut off completely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted March 15, 2020 Moderator Share Posted March 15, 2020 I think the bellend realised the numbers were against him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 Just now, bickster said: I think the bellend realised the numbers were against him Or he had a text from his boss telling him to stop being a dick 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingman Posted March 15, 2020 Share Posted March 15, 2020 What some experts thinks about the government strategy The direction of the UK Government strategy on theCOVID-19 pandemic must change immediately to prevent catastrophe https://www.dropbox.com/s/d5jqdmsxgwrjz6v/ICU_beds.pdf?dl=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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