Generic Virus Thread

[chrisp65]

13 minutes ago, Morley_crosses_to_Withe said:

I’ve got two lots of rubbing alcohol - 70% and 90% - I use the alcohol first, let that dry, and then use aloe vera (one doctor said moisturising is important because high content alcohol is extremely harsh on the skin and you could end up with bad eczema). The reason behind the use of one and then the other is you might not get the concentration right when mixing the two thus making the formula ineffective. 

Probably easier to maintain the required alcohol content with 90% stuff but harder with the lower 70% concentration. 

Maybe the moisturiser also puts a protective layer back on the skin. All that alcohol rub tends to strip the natural oils that form some sort of barrier between skin and outside world.

 

[Chindie]

2 minutes ago, foreveryoung said:

Is it really something to worry about, the common Flu seems more worrying in numbers.

 

Between December 9 and December 15 there were:

• An estimated 9,646 GP appointments in England for influenza-like symptoms (calculated using attendance rates and population data) 
• 586 patients hospitalised by flu in England
•  174 patients admitted to intensive care with flu, bringing the total in 2019 to 2,092
• Eight deaths in which flu was a contributing factor, bringing the total since September 30 to 23 
• 155 new outbreaks of lung-borne illnesses suspected to be flu. 86 of these were in care homes, 56 in schools, seven in hospitals and six 'other' 

Flu kills about 0.001% of people that get it every year.

This, even accounting for the fact there will be many many more infections than we are currently aware of, has a far higher fatality rate. It's also seemingly much more contagious, bearing in mind that in the space of about 3 months is gone from a small corner of China to global pandemic. 

We also know how to deal with flu and have various medicines that can combat it and support those that need it. With this, we've got basic, generic medical support and in the very worst cases artificial ventilation, which is a thing we have extremely low capacity of worldwide.

There's a reason the globe has reacted to this virus, that countries have made actions as drastic as shutting down whole regions. A friend lives in China and only the other day posted about being finally given a pass to leave his apartment - after 2 months. You don't make that kind of intervention for flu.

[Awol]

Trump press conference just now was mind-boggling. No questions,  just ran away and handed off to Pence. He’s a wreck. 

[sidcow]

3 minutes ago, Chindie said:

Flu kills about 0.001% of people that get it every year.

This, even accounting for the fact there will be many many more infections than we are currently aware of, has a far higher fatality rate. It's also seemingly much more contagious, bearing in mind that in the space of about 3 months is gone from a small corner of China to global pandemic. 

We also know how to deal with flu and have various medicines that can combat it and support those that need it. With this, we've got basic, generic medical support and in the very worst cases artificial ventilation, which is a thing we have extremely low capacity of worldwide.

There's a reason the globe has reacted to this virus, that countries have made actions as drastic as shutting down whole regions. A friend lives in China and only the other day posted about being finally given a pass to leave his apartment - after 2 months. You don't make that kind of intervention for flu.

That's because pretty much everyone who is vulnerable to the flu is vaccinated against it. I have diabetes and I have a flu jab. 

Without the vaccine the flu numbers would be astranomical. 

[dudevillaisnice]

5 minutes ago, Awol said:

Trump press conference just now was mind-boggling. No questions,  just ran away and handed off to Pence. He’s a wreck. 

Bet he had no intention of coming out for this conference but because the fed cut rate he wanted to celebrate it

[Stevo985]

36 minutes ago, foreveryoung said:

Is it really something to worry about, the common Flu seems more worrying in numbers.

 

Between December 9 and December 15 there were:

• An estimated 9,646 GP appointments in England for influenza-like symptoms (calculated using attendance rates and population data) 
• 586 patients hospitalised by flu in England
•  174 patients admitted to intensive care with flu, bringing the total in 2019 to 2,092
• Eight deaths in which flu was a contributing factor, bringing the total since September 30 to 23 
• 155 new outbreaks of lung-borne illnesses suspected to be flu. 86 of these were in care homes, 56 in schools, seven in hospitals and six 'other' 

I honestly don't understand why people are still talking like this.

It's very obviously more worrying than the **** flu. The **** PLANET is heading towards a lockdown.

It's the biggest medical emergency in a generation. Yes. It is something to worry about

[romavillan]

28 minutes ago, sidcow said:

That's because pretty much everyone who is vulnerable to the flu is vaccinated against it. I have diabetes and I have a flu jab. 

Without the vaccine the flu numbers would be astranomical. 

Yeah going in to prisons I get a free flu jab every year, anyone high risk qualifies. Comparing covid 19 to the flu is really missing the point. It's more contagious and poss a thousand times more lethal. Two factors which make it an entirely different kettle of fish. I can remember people saying shit like this in Italy right up until about 3 weeks ago. No-one is that stupid now.

[chrisp65]

I’m still waiting for Homeopathy to step up to the plate here.

[HanoiVillan]

The power of social distancing measures:

 

[villakram]

18 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

The power of social distancing measures:

 

As the populations of those 2 locations are the same, therefore this is a perfectly correct apples to apples comparison to make. FB science.

 

[leighavfc]

So Stereophonics play massive gig in Cardiff, Marathons held in Liverpool and Bath . St Patrick's day celebrations went ahead in other places too. This kind of stuff is going to have stop sooner or later, people need to realise that it's pretty much down to us as individuals to stop this thing spreading. Unfortunately life is going to be put on hold for a period of time, the more we do now the better it will hopefully be over the coming weeks and months. 

If were allowing mass gatherings still then what's the f*****g point? We may aswell all give up and let it happen.... 

Just had an email from my sons nursery to say a cleaner who cleans the nursery, sports hall and general sports centre is confirmed to have it. They have closed for deep clean until further notice... I was only there yesterday for my boys football training

Edited March 15, 2020 by leighavfc

[villakram]

1 hour ago, Awol said:

What a piece of work. Gain exclusive rights over the vaccine then sell it for astronomical mark-up to rest of the world. 

Glad Trump failed but my god, he’s dragging his country’s name through the dirt. Gotta feel bad for them. 

Hopp-BioTech

Ahhh, Mr. 1% himself, the Hoffenheim "prosecuting supporters for calling him names" overlords company.

 

[Stevo985]

10 minutes ago, villakram said:

As the populations of those 2 locations are the same, therefore this is a perfectly correct apples to apples comparison to make. FB science.

 

They didn’t standardise by population because only small clusters of municipalities were affected and they were comparable (10 in Lodi and 2 in Bergamo)

population only really matters when A place runs out of people to infect. Which obviously hasn’t here. So the comparison is still valid. 
 

fwiw the people who made that comparison are working to clarify your query (or the same query you’ve made) so you may get a proper answer soon. 

[chrisp65]

9 minutes ago, leighavfc said:

So Stereophonics play massive gig in Cardiff,

March 12th Glasgow

 

March 13th Manchester

 

 

March 14th Cardiff

 

 

[ml1dch]

I wonder if someone might want to explain "it only takes one match to burn a thousand trees" to the bloke who wrote the sodding lyric.

[leighavfc]

8 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

March 12th Glasgow

 

March 13th Manchester

 

 

March 14th Cardiff

 

 

Crikey...

[terrytini]

3 hours ago, Jon said:

A lack of tests being carried out will clearly make the death rate appear much worse than it actually is. Not just that, but many people will have had this/ get it, and either be mostly unaware, or just feel a bit under the weather. These cases will clearly not be recorded either.  So the actual death rate will be much lower than is currently being touted. 1% tops. 

I try to post either positive stuff or stuff about precautions but I thought I’d mention this...intake zero pleasure in it but some may want to know...

....on the one hand you could be right.....lack of tests = fewer people with the virus detected so the proportion dying is artificially high.

As will people presenting few or no symptoms. 
That’s the good half.

The bad half is the time lag between a case being flagged and a death. Eg....if the mortality rate was 8%.....and the time between diagnoses and death was 11 days....and cases increased at 100 a day the first ten days, then 200 a day next ten days, 300 next ten etc..etc.....( figures chosen for simplicity.)

At present they are simply saying ‘X’ cases and ‘Y deaths. It doesn’t work.

Day 1 - 100 cases known 0 deaths

By Day 10 - say 1000 cases known 0 deaths.

Day 11 - 1200 cases 8 deaths - rate doesn’t look “ too bad” ( 0.6%)

Day 12 - 1400 cases, 16 deaths...

.....by day 20, there will be 3000 known cases and 80 deaths. ( rate now 2.5%)

By day 30 there would be 7000 cases and 240 deaths.. ( rate now 3.5%)

So a better estimate would be : Number of deaths / Number of cases known at earlier time ‘x’ (where ‘x’ is days taken between contracting illness and dying)

To put it another way with an extreme example.

Imagine the time between getting the illness and dying from it was a Year. And it lasts just a year. And infected 1000 people per day.

For a whole year from say January 1st the numbers of people with the disease would rise, but death rate would stay at zero.

You would only start seeing deaths on January 1st Year 2.

But even then you’d only see how many who got sick the previous January 1st had died. So if the mortality rate was 10% you’d have you’d still have 365,000 cases with just 100 dead. An apparent mortality rate of .02%

But by the end of the year you’d have 365,000 cases with 36,500 dead, a mortality rate of 10%.

The most recent paper from WHO suggests using statistical analysis of the bigger picture the mortality rate could be as high as 8%.......although bear in mind that’s in respect of known cases, which is where the first comment that the figures could be artificially high due to lack of testing/ asymptomatic kick in).

 

 

[HanoiVillan]

28 minutes ago, villakram said:

As the populations of those 2 locations are the same, therefore this is a perfectly correct apples to apples comparison to make. FB science.

 

The populations are similar enough in terms of demographics, and the size of the population doesn't matter at this stage of the infection.

[terrytini]

I don’t know if that was easy to follow so here’s an easy version.

Lets say it takes 2 weeks to die once you have it.

Then the deaths total we hear today is actually based on the number of cases 2 weeks ago ( which is significantly less).

[terrytini]

7 minutes ago, leighavfc said:

Crikey...

That’s what I thought how the hell do the Stereophonics get crowds like that ?