Seat68 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 The reporting by the media should be x have had one dose and x are fully vaccinated. We are trumpeting that millions are vaccinated when that isnt the correct figure. Particularly if it only has 50% efficacy in dose one. It gives a false sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, Straggler said: Ok, my main problem is with a massive lack of trust in the govt. If they can go around saying they have vaccinated x million people after one dose they can let the second one slip and slip until it is too late and some unintended consequence kicks us all in the butt. The Tories are way happier chasing a good headline than good science and public health, they need to be kept honest and the job needs to be reported as half done at one jab. Just imagine them making this hypothetical decision. They have 10 million people with one jab in them for two months and have 10 million more jabs available for the next 2 months. Policy at the moment gives those jabs to 10 million more people. 20 million vaccinated yay! then they have 10 million more jabs for the next 2 months. Do they do another 10 million people or give the second jab to the first lot who will be getting up to 6 months on one jab by the end of this period. Do they chase the 30 million people vaccinated headline? What happens to the spread of the virus when a critical mass of people are wondering around with some immunity? What happens to a virus in terms of mutation if it gets to co-exist with the vaccine in 20 million hosts who are part vaccinated? Yeah it's a case of balancing risks. I'm pretty cynical but I don't think the decision was made to chase headlines. Are you better off with twice as many people who have some level of protection or half as many people who have a better level of protection. There have been good arguments both ways but it seems like they are arguments between qualified medical experts and not a case of government defying all medical expertise. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesy7211 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 Had a letter from the GP yesterday saying to expect my 1st dose in the next few weeks, and the 2nd by the end of May (I'm CEV). It sounds to me like the NHS know we need both doses, but the government and the Tory led media are trying to spin things to say everyone with the 1st dose is vaccinated and we can start reducing restrictions once the Top 4 most at risk groups have had the 1st dose, which will be in the next couple of months. Based on the clinical trial results, and the plan to distribute the vaccine, it appears to me that the decision to extend the time between vaccine doses is down to protecting the economy (those companies that donate to the Tory party anyway), and not in the interests of safeguarding the at risk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seat68 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 6 minutes ago, Jonesy7211 said: Had a letter from the GP yesterday saying to expect my 1st dose in the next few weeks, and the 2nd by the end of May (I'm CEV). It sounds to me like the NHS know we need both doses, but the government and the Tory led media are trying to spin things to say everyone with the 1st dose is vaccinated and we can start reducing restrictions once the Top 4 most at risk groups have had the 1st dose, which will be in the next couple of months. Based on the clinical trial results, and the plan to distribute the vaccine, it appears to me that the decision to extend the time between vaccine doses is down to protecting the economy (those companies that donate to the Tory party anyway), and not in the interests of safeguarding the at risk. Suckers are falling for it as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Straggler Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 1 minute ago, LondonLax said: Yeah it's a case of balancing risks. I'm pretty cynical but I don't think the decision was made to chase headlines. Are you better off with twice as many people who have some level of protection or half as many people who have a better level of protection. There have been good arguments both ways but it seems like they are arguments between qualified medical experts and not a case of government defying all medical expertise. Yeah, I can see the argument for getting one jab out there quickly and I'm certainly not qualified to make a case one way or the other on that. I would also agree that the initial decision was probably not made to chase headlines. My worry is that the likes of Boris and Hancock in interviews have started leaning really hard on the numbers of vaccinated people growing at an impressive rate to mitigate against being the very worst in the world for death rate. It's not the decision that has been made that I'm worried about, it is the decision that has not been made yet that bothers me. Will there be a political pressure to keep the number going up, or will the supply of vaccine and availability of staff be turned to giving people the second shot? With how the vaccine numbers being the only bit of short term good news, I don't think this govt is beyond making a decision that defies the scientists at that point. We are only 2/3 weeks or so away from the end of the 2 month window for the first recipients. Have these people beein booked in? Is anyone keeing an eye on it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Straggler said: Yeah, I can see the argument for getting one jab out there quickly and I'm certainly not qualified to make a case one way or the other on that. I would also agree that the initial decision was probably not made to chase headlines. My worry is that the likes of Boris and Hancock in interviews have started leaning really hard on the numbers of vaccinated people growing at an impressive rate to mitigate against being the very worst in the world for death rate. It's not the decision that has been made that I'm worried about, it is the decision that has not been made yet that bothers me. Will there be a political pressure to keep the number going up, or will the supply of vaccine and availability of staff be turned to giving people the second shot? With how the vaccine numbers being the only bit of short term good news, I don't think this govt is beyond making a decision that defies the scientists at that point. We are only 2/3 weeks or so away from the end of the 2 month window for the first recipients. Have these people beein booked in? Is anyone keeing an eye on it? I think your question at the end is fair. I don't have a particular problem with the 3 week or 12 week decision - it's a trade-off, and I can understand why they made it - but I'm (much) less comfortable with eg Raab hinting at the weekend that lots of people might not get a second dose at all. EDIT: I'm absolutely open to being persuaded by scientists that there's a good justification, but I haven't yet seen anyone making that case. Edited January 20, 2021 by HanoiVillan 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted January 20, 2021 Moderator Share Posted January 20, 2021 11 hours ago, sidcow said: Yes, that's absolutely true. Hardly anyone would have had it long enough yet for the full protection from shot 1 to have built up, so it's a bit of a mystery how they can be measuring it's efficacy yet. You really need to study these things for a number of months (as per the clinical trials) to work out the effectiveness. What Israel did was study a vaccinated group of 200,000 people and an unvaccinated group of 200,000 people with demographic matching across the two groups and studied the data at the 14 day point after the vaccination took place Iirc there was only a 33% improvement with one dose of the vaccine (Sorry I read it last night and haven't got time to link to the article - Sky News iirc) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wainy316 Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 1 hour ago, Straggler said: I don't get why it can be reported that people are vaccinated after just one dose. To be properly vaccinated you need the second dose. At best it should be reported like that. You don't call the result of a football match at half time. That’s exactly how a lot of people are deciding to call our home game against Sheff United last season after retrospectively awarding them their ‘ghost goal’. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted January 20, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted January 20, 2021 I'm pretty sure the Government will be far more concerned about the damage caused by any further/future shutdowns than getting a few headlines. I'm sure if a medical expert told them that the single dose would be a disaster and lead to further shutdowns because it's ineffective, that would grab their attention. I think Boris will be hounded out by further lockdowns, he's already under pressure from backbenchers about this one. I still want to see data about how many people were hospitalised more than 21 days after their first jab. How ill you get is probably more important than if you get it full stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Straggler Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 8 minutes ago, sidcow said: I'm pretty sure the Government will be far more concerned about the damage caused by any further/future shutdowns than getting a few headlines. I'm sure if a medical expert told them that the single dose would be a disaster and lead to further shutdowns because it's ineffective, that would grab their attention. I think Boris will be hounded out by further lockdowns, he's already under pressure from backbenchers about this one. I still want to see data about how many people were hospitalised more than 21 days after their first jab. How ill you get is probably more important than if you get it full stop. This govenment has ignored loads of advice that could have prevented us being in the disaster that we are currently in. We have the worst death rate in the world. I see no sign of them learning any lessons from that either. For me the very worst thing they can do is half vaccinate 10's of millions of people then prematurely announce the battle won and end lockdown. In that case the virus can still spread and the number of infections will rocket. Even if the number of fatalities can be kept down by the effectiveness of one jab, allowing the virus to spread gives it more opportunities to mutate into something that the vaccine won't work against and we are all back to square 1. I can absolutely see them doing this too. We have an obligation to the whole world not to play fast and loose with the vaccine and there is nothing going from the Tories that makes me think that they understand this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fightoffyour Posted January 20, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted January 20, 2021 Aren’t the targets unfeasible at the moment as well? They’re giving out about 2m doses a week, so it will take roughly the 34 weeks from the start of the year until the end of August to give out 68m doses to the whole population or 34m full vaccinations. Is capacity expected to double then in order to provide 68m full vaccinations in the same timeframe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 46 minutes ago, fightoffyour said: Aren’t the targets unfeasible at the moment as well? They’re giving out about 2m doses a week, so it will take roughly the 34 weeks from the start of the year until the end of August to give out 68m doses to the whole population or 34m full vaccinations. Is capacity expected to double then in order to provide 68m full vaccinations in the same timeframe? They're definitely expecting capacity increases, though I saw something about Pfizer's distribution being a bottleneck earlier. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 1 minute ago, HanoiVillan said: They're definitely expecting capacity increases, though I saw something about Pfizer's distribution being a bottleneck earlier. Yep, the numbers don’t add up at the moment. The government must be aware of some supply restrictions coming along at some point. Pfizer have said they are adjusting their production process which will have a short term impact on supply in Jan and early Feb, but from then on they’ll be able to produce more than before. The EU have said this means they’re getting less than previously promised. The UK have not said if it impacts us (as far as I am aware). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted January 20, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted January 20, 2021 I think the Oxford one is doing more of the heavy lifting in the UK compared to other countries so Pfizer reductions probably don't have such a major effect on us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Dodgyknees Posted January 20, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted January 20, 2021 Some things that may happen if you get COVID. - Waking up unable to breathe properly, feels like somebody has put their hands on your chest and are pushing - if anybody has ever been winded, it’s that but for 2/3 mins at a time. Scary. Feeling really hot, and I can’t even describe this other than you honestly feel heat coming off you and I’ve been sweating up so badly but then also going freezing cold and shivering in my bed. If I’ve got heating on when shivering it becomes unbearable when I get really hot, but if I turn the heating off and feel the chill and get shivers that’s also shit. The headache is awful. I wasn’t aware that this was a symptom but my vision comes and goes (blurry) and it’s a really intense feeling in and around my forehead and temples. Shoulders, back, arms, legs, all ache. This is alongside the chest feeling compressed. It’s a squeezing sensation like the muscles are crippled. The cough is loud and hurts, brings tears to my eyes. It pushes me forward, then that hurts my muscles which are cramping, hurts my head which has the headache and I gasp for breath again and then have tears coming from my eyes. All of this, on and off, over and over. My fingers are crossed that I’m over the worst of it though as I walked to the kitchen today. Big deal right? Well, I am in a studio flat and the kitchen is 20 steps from my bed. Even just a few days ago I couldn’t make that trip without being out of breath. Not looking for sympathy, so none of that bullshit please, I just want people to know that this is **** awful. Please, don’t take chances... not worth it. Wash hands, wear a mask, shit on the city and stay safe 15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darrenm Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 2 hours ago, bickster said: What Israel did was study a vaccinated group of 200,000 people and an unvaccinated group of 200,000 people with demographic matching across the two groups and studied the data at the 14 day point after the vaccination took place Iirc there was only a 33% improvement with one dose of the vaccine (Sorry I read it last night and haven't got time to link to the article - Sky News iirc) I saw this (https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-real-world-analysis-of-vaccine-in-israel-raises-questions-about-uk-strategy-12192751) Quote The first real-world analysis of the Pfizer/BioNTech coronavirus vaccine suggests it is matching its performance in clinical trials, but raises serious questions about the UK's decision to delay the second dose. and read a bit of analysis (which is difficult because it's just quotes at the moment rather than data) and I think the caveats were around the behaviour of people when vaccinated compared to the clinical trials. There's some concern that lots of people are acting as if they have full immunity as soon as they have the vaccine and then catching it in the days before T cells are created which could be skewing the results. The gov should definitely take this seriously and get the data so they can change the calculations to see if it's still worth vaccinating twice as many people but at lower efficacy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darrenm Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, avfcDJ said: Some things that may happen if you get COVID. - Waking up unable to breathe properly, feels like somebody has put their hands on your chest and are pushing - if anybody has ever been winded, it’s that but for 2/3 mins at a time. Scary. Feeling really hot, and I can’t even describe this other than you honestly feel heat coming off you and I’ve been sweating up so badly but then also going freezing cold and shivering in my bed. If I’ve got heating on when shivering it becomes unbearable when I get really hot, but if I turn the heating off and feel the chill and get shivers that’s also shit. The headache is awful. I wasn’t aware that this was a symptom but my vision comes and goes (blurry) and it’s a really intense feeling in and around my forehead and temples. Shoulders, back, arms, legs, all ache. This is alongside the chest feeling compressed. It’s a squeezing sensation like the muscles are crippled. The cough is loud and hurts, brings tears to my eyes. It pushes me forward, then that hurts my muscles which are cramping, hurts my head which has the headache and I gasp for breath again and then have tears coming from my eyes. All of this, on and off, over and over. My fingers are crossed that I’m over the worst of it though as I walked to the kitchen today. Big deal right? Well, I am in a studio flat and the kitchen is 20 steps from my bed. Even just a few days ago I couldn’t make that trip without being out of breath. Not looking for sympathy, so none of that bullshit please, I just want people to know that this is **** awful. Please, don’t take chances... not worth it. Wash hands, wear a mask, shit on the city and stay safe Sounds genuinely awful. Hope you'll quickly recover now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dodgyknees Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 4 minutes ago, darrenm said: Sounds genuinely awful. Hope you'll quickly recover now. Feeling a lot more “aware” today, which sounds weird, but I have even forgotten what days it has been. Didn’t realise it was my birthday on Sunday till I got a text 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted January 20, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted January 20, 2021 46 minutes ago, avfcDJ said: Some things that may happen if you get COVID. - Waking up unable to breathe properly, feels like somebody has put their hands on your chest and are pushing - if anybody has ever been winded, it’s that but for 2/3 mins at a time. Scary. Feeling really hot, and I can’t even describe this other than you honestly feel heat coming off you and I’ve been sweating up so badly but then also going freezing cold and shivering in my bed. If I’ve got heating on when shivering it becomes unbearable when I get really hot, but if I turn the heating off and feel the chill and get shivers that’s also shit. The headache is awful. I wasn’t aware that this was a symptom but my vision comes and goes (blurry) and it’s a really intense feeling in and around my forehead and temples. Shoulders, back, arms, legs, all ache. This is alongside the chest feeling compressed. It’s a squeezing sensation like the muscles are crippled. The cough is loud and hurts, brings tears to my eyes. It pushes me forward, then that hurts my muscles which are cramping, hurts my head which has the headache and I gasp for breath again and then have tears coming from my eyes. All of this, on and off, over and over. My fingers are crossed that I’m over the worst of it though as I walked to the kitchen today. Big deal right? Well, I am in a studio flat and the kitchen is 20 steps from my bed. Even just a few days ago I couldn’t make that trip without being out of breath. Not looking for sympathy, so none of that bullshit please, I just want people to know that this is **** awful. Please, don’t take chances... not worth it. Wash hands, wear a mask, shit on the city and stay safe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dodgyknees Posted January 20, 2021 Share Posted January 20, 2021 2 hours ago, sidcow said: Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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