bickster Posted January 21, 2021 Moderator Share Posted January 21, 2021 8 minutes ago, Genie said: Apart from all the experts saying it is Where? there's zero evidence for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 (edited) 4 minutes ago, bickster said: Where? there's zero evidence for it We’ve done this at least twice already Added to the fact that it has got a lot worse during the winter should be sufficient “evidence”. Edited January 21, 2021 by Genie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 11 minutes ago, Xela said: Unless they were Uighurs, then the world would just turn a blind eye. Agree with the point, but that's exactly how we can be so confident that there are not in fact mass covid executions. We know a huge amount about what China are doing to the Uighurs, even though it's happening in a genuinely remote, sparsely populated, hard to access part of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted January 21, 2021 Moderator Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, Genie said: We’ve done this at least twice already No one produced any evidence whatsoever, one of the "experts" presented last time claimed it was only affecting temperate climates in the Northern Hemisphere and not areas between the tropics, which blatently ignored India, the fact that Africa is largely the Sahara and Central America isn't exactly big. There have been recent outbreaks in Dubai was it? that we closed are travel to and from in winter Sorry but no one has convinced me of this yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 (edited) 8 minutes ago, bickster said: No one produced any evidence whatsoever, one of the "experts" presented last time claimed it was only affecting temperate climates in the Northern Hemisphere and not areas between the tropics, which blatently ignored India, the fact that Africa is largely the Sahara and Central America isn't exactly big. There have been recent outbreaks in Dubai was it? that we closed are travel to and from in winter Sorry but no one has convinced me of this yet It’s not the temperature that is key but the levels of humidity. The humidity is much higher when it’s warmer (and all year round in the tropics). Quote The team said that humidity does play a role in the transmission of airborne viruses. Prof Ward explained: "When the humidity is lower, the air is drier and it makes the aerosols smaller. "When you sneeze and cough those smaller infectious aerosols can stay suspended in the air for longer. That increases the exposure for other people. When the air is humid and the aerosols are larger and heavier, they fall and hit surfaces quicker." The results of the study found that lower humidity levels were associated with an increase in cases. A reduction in humidity of just one per cent meant cases would increase by six per cent. Prof Ward said that humidity is at its lowest in August in Sydney and added that people need to be careful facing a dry winter. https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11771359/coronavirus-seasonal-disease-winter-covid-time/ (yes it’s The Sun but the epidemiologists they are quoting seem credible) Edited January 21, 2021 by LondonLax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 10 minutes ago, bickster said: There have been recent outbreaks in Dubai was it? that we closed are travel to and from in winter Sorry but no one has convinced me of this yet UK winter is the coldest time of the year in Dubai too so it supports the argument that cases have risen sharply there too (like the rest of Europe, North America etc). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted January 21, 2021 Moderator Share Posted January 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, Genie said: UK winter is the coldest time of the year in Dubai too so it supports the argument that cases have risen sharply there too (like the rest of Europe, North America etc). You can't be serious by that logic it would have been running rampant all summer here, the winter temperature in DUbai is still above any average temperature we get here. That's illogical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted January 21, 2021 Moderator Share Posted January 21, 2021 11 minutes ago, LondonLax said: It’s not the temperature that is key but the levels of humidity. The humidity is much higher when it’s warmer (and all year round in the tropics). Average relative humidity in Dubai never goes below 80% by that logic it should have been rampant since the start Can we have some experts that appear to know what they are talking about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, bickster said: You can't be serious by that logic it would have been running rampant all summer here, the winter temperature in DUbai is still above any average temperature we get here. That's illogical The cases are up in line with winter in most of the northern hemisphere (as the experts predicted). Dubai’s cases are up a lot relative to what they were in the summer, following the same profile as most of the northern hemisphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 (edited) @bickster are you saying that it’s a coincidence that all the experts predicted the virus would thrive during the winter, then it did thrive in the winter in vast majority of the northern hemisphere European countries, and North America? Coincidence? Edited January 21, 2021 by Genie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted January 21, 2021 Moderator Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 minute ago, Genie said: The cases are up in line with winter in most of the northern hemisphere (as the experts predicted). Dubai’s cases are up a lot relative to what they were in the summer, following the same profile as most of the northern hemisphere. So you appear to be saying that the virus addapts to the country its in and changes its behaviour to the relative temperature changes in that country? That is just silly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 6 minutes ago, bickster said: Average relative humidity in Dubai never goes below 80% by that logic it should have been rampant since the start Can we have some experts that appear to know what they are talking about You seem to have it the wrong way round. Higher humidity suppresses the transmission of aerosols making it a bit more difficult to transmit the disease by air. In winter the air gets colder, losing humidity. In the Southern Hemisphere countries like Australia and Chile had their biggest outbreaks during the southern winter months. In the northern hemisphere the virus calmed down for a bit over summer and has come back with a vengeance with the colder months. Take a look at Sweden as a case study. Famously no lockdown measures, no change in government policy during the entire pandemic but the deaths from the virus have gone through a classic double hump over the colder months this year and last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted January 21, 2021 Moderator Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, Genie said: @bickster are you saying that it’s a coincidence that all the experts predicted the virus would thrive during the winter, then it did thrive in the winter in vast majority of the northern hemisphere European countries, and North America? Coincidence? I'm saying these experts predicted this based on previous experience with other viruses. In other words they were little more than guessing. The evidence just isn't there and likely won't be for some good time, well after the fact. Most of them kept referencing "The Spanish Flu" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted January 21, 2021 Moderator Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 minute ago, LondonLax said: You seem to have it the wrong way round. Higher humidity suppresses the transmission of aerosols making it a bit more difficult to transmit the disease by air. In winter the air gets colder, losing humidity. In the Southern Hemisphere countries like Australia and Chile had their biggest outbreaks during the southern winter months. In the northern hemisphere the virus calmed down for a bit over summer and has come back with a vengeance with the colder months. Take a look at Sweden as a case study. Famously no lockdown measures, no change in government policy during the entire pandemic but the deaths from the virus have gone through a classic double hump over the colder months this year and last. Relative Humidity is higher in winter in the UK, same is true in Sweden. Next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo985 Posted January 21, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted January 21, 2021 7 minutes ago, bickster said: So you appear to be saying that the virus addapts to the country its in and changes its behaviour to the relative temperature changes in that country? That is just silly He's not saying that. He's saying cases go up as temperature drops. Cases are higher in Dubai now than they were in the summer. I have no idea whether it's true or not, but what he's saying is not what you're claiming 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 minute ago, bickster said: I'm saying these experts predicted this based on previous experience with other viruses. In other words they were little more than guessing. The evidence just isn't there and likely won't be for some good time, well after the fact. Most of them kept referencing "The Spanish Flu" The experts had used surrogate data on the behaviour of comparable other viruses to make the prediction in the late summer that it would be much worse during the northern hemisphere winter months. Actual result, it is much worse in the northern hemisphere winter months. I’m not sure what more evidence you want? Several experts make data driven prediction that is proven to be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted January 21, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just watching news reports on telly, reporter going round all sorts of open areas in China. A lot of senior Chinese now saying it came from overseas and people in the street saying it came from America. I'm just staying in and waiting for my jab. Night folks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted January 21, 2021 Moderator Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, Stevo985 said: He's not saying that. He's saying cases go up as temperature drops. Cases are higher in Dubai now than they were in the summer. I have no idea whether it's true or not, but what he's saying is not what you're claiming No thats exactly what he's saying because the temperature in Dubai is still higher than it ever gets in the UK You can't say our summer temperatures suppress the virus then on the other hand say Dubai's winter temeratures which are still higher than the UK summer one's don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted January 21, 2021 Moderator Share Posted January 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, Genie said: I’m not sure what more evidence you want? Several experts make data driven prediction that is proven to be correct. I want evidence as to why this is seasonal? Not a correct prediction There are so many other factors besides the climates of the countries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, bickster said: No thats exactly what he's saying because the temperature in Dubai is still higher than it ever gets in the UK You can't say our summer temperatures suppress the virus then on the other hand say Dubai's winter temeratures which are still higher than the UK summer one's don't. I echoed what the experts predicted and we’ve seen play out, the virus is more transmissible in the winter. *Dubai’s cases up significantly on what they were in the summer. I think Dubai is a bit of an anomaly anyway as it was the only real place to go on holiday for a lot of people so it was probably inundated with carriers over the last couple of months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts