Genie Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 1 minute ago, bickster said: I want evidence as to why this is seasonal? Not a correct prediction There are so many other factors besides the climates of the countries So why do you think so many northern hemisphere countries have all followed the predicted trend of getting worse in winter, if not for the weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 5 minutes ago, bickster said: Relative Humidity is higher in winter in the UK, same is true in Sweden. Next It’s not relative humidity that they were looking at but absolute humidity. It is the explanation for why aerosols spread more widely in cold air than warm humid air. That part we knew from before COVID. We also now know that COVID is spread by aerosols as well, so this factor of cold air being better at spreading aerosols will likely apply to COVID. This is born out by so many countries on the 50 degree latitude seeing their worst conditions during their coldest months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted January 21, 2021 Moderator Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, Genie said: the virus is more transmissible in the winter Do I have to go back to India? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Xela Posted January 21, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted January 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, bickster said: Do I have to go back to India? I thought you were originally from Wales? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted January 21, 2021 Moderator Share Posted January 21, 2021 3 minutes ago, Genie said: So why do you think so many northern hemisphere countries have all followed the predicted trend of getting worse in winter, if not for the weather? Well so far we locked down, it eased, We opened up, it started again, We locked down (a little) it suppressed abit, We opened up, It started again. The spikes almost perfectly match that and the longest tightest lockdown produced the highest suppression time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted January 21, 2021 Moderator Share Posted January 21, 2021 6 minutes ago, LondonLax said: It’s not relative humidity that they were looking at but absolute humidity. It is the explanation for why aerosols spread more widely in cold air than warm humid air. That part we knew from before COVID. We also now know that COVID is spread by aerosols as well, so this factor of cold air being better at spreading aerosols will likely apply to COVID. This is born out by so many countries on the 50 degree latitude seeing their worst conditions during their coldest months. Now THAT makes more sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, bickster said: Well so far we locked down, it eased, We opened up, it started again, We locked down (a little) it suppressed abit, We opened up, It started again. The spikes almost perfectly match that and the longest tightest lockdown produced the highest suppression time What about when we were open all summer and cases were really low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted January 21, 2021 Moderator Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just now, Genie said: What about when we were open all summer and cases were really low? 4 minutes ago, Genie said: and the longest tightest lockdown produced the highest suppression time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 You win, all the experts are wrong. The predictions based on data of behaviour of similar viruses that came true were lucky guesses. It’s nothing to do with the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 Useful to go back and remind ourselves what was and wasn't seen as 'common sense' back in late 2019 re pandemics: Really think people forget how quickly the consensus shifted on this stuff, and it warps a lot of the commentary. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 25 minutes ago, bickster said: Do I have to go back to India? India has a high humidity so it’s like it’s summer all year round there But as we were saying before, there is not going to be 1 answer for why different countries experienced different levels of outbreaks, there are a whole host of reasons. It does seem to follow a trend of the toughest times being the winter months though for whatever reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo985 Posted January 21, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted January 21, 2021 44 minutes ago, bickster said: No thats exactly what he's saying because the temperature in Dubai is still higher than it ever gets in the UK You can't say our summer temperatures suppress the virus then on the other hand say Dubai's winter temeratures which are still higher than the UK summer one's don't. He's not saying that though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted January 21, 2021 Moderator Share Posted January 21, 2021 9 minutes ago, Genie said: You win, all the experts are wrong. The predictions based on data of behaviour of similar viruses that came true were lucky guesses. It’s nothing to do with the weather. It's not a case of winning, everything you've said is incorrect. LAX had the answer and my confusion was between relative and absolute humidity. This has nothing to do with the weather but everything to do with climate. (there is a fundamental difference) Let me try and explain, relative humidity is the amount of moisture a parcel of air can contain relative to the temperature of the air. Absolute humidity is simply the amount of moisture in the air. In the UK (and any temperate climate) the relative humidity is higher in winter but the absolute humidity is higher in summer. It is the amount of water in those air parcels that suppresses the aerosol spreading of the virus, the greater the concentration of humidity already in the air the less the aerosols can spread as there's less room in the air to accommodate the extra moisture of the virus. The warmer the air, the more moisture it can hold without precipitation occurring, so in winter it rains more because the cooler air can't hold the moisture as well as the warmer summer air. The summer air containing more moisture prevents it containing as much aerosol droplets. And that's why this isn't to do with absolute temperature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted January 21, 2021 Share Posted January 21, 2021 (edited) 10 minutes ago, bickster said: It's not a case of winning, everything you've said is incorrect. LAX had the answer and my confusion was between relative and absolute humidity. This has nothing to do with the weather but everything to do with climate. (there is a fundamental difference) Let me try and explain, relative humidity is the amount of moisture a parcel of air can contain relative to the temperature of the air. Absolute humidity is simply the amount of moisture in the air. In the UK (and any temperate climate) the relative humidity is higher in winter but the absolute humidity is higher in summer. It is the amount of water in those air parcels that suppresses the aerosol spreading of the virus, the greater the concentration of humidity already in the air the less the aerosols can spread as there's less room in the air to accommodate the extra moisture of the virus. The warmer the air, the more moisture it can hold without precipitation occurring, so in winter it rains more because the cooler air can't hold the moisture as well as the warmer summer air. The summer air containing more moisture prevents it containing as much aerosol droplets. And that's why this isn't to do with absolute temperature That's a good explanation, but I would edit the last sentence to say '. . . directly to do with absolute temperature' - of course cold and wet weather (as well as long dark nights) force people to spend more time indoors in higher-transmission environments as well. EDIT: Perhaps would add to this, I think this is the key to the seasonal difference. Another climatic effect that may well be driving some of the seasonal variation is that people living in countries of a roughly similar latitude to our own struggle to get enough vitamin D during the winter months, which leads to weakened immune systems. Edited January 21, 2021 by HanoiVillan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 7 hours ago, bickster said: It's not a case of winning, everything you've said is incorrect. 7 hours ago, bickster said: And that's why this isn't to do with absolute temperature Of course there is a direct relationship between air temperature and humidity. Your argument was that it wasn’t seasonal, which is what the experts said it was, and has proved to be. If you’ve now accepted that it is then everything I said can’t be incorrect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted January 22, 2021 Moderator Share Posted January 22, 2021 9 minutes ago, Genie said: Of course there is a direct relationship between air temperature and humidity. Your argument was that it wasn’t seasonal, which is what the experts said it was, and has proved to be. If you’ve now accepted that it is then everything I said can’t be incorrect. Because there isn't a direct relationship with temperature, that's the whole point, temperature is relevant but only on how much moisture the air is capable of holding at any time. It is perfectly possible to have cold temperature "dry" air and high temperature "dry" air both of which according to this theory would enable more transmission by aerosols than with "wet" air. It also means it isn't seasonal in the way you mean, it is seasonal in temperate climates, it for example will follow a completely different pattern in monsoon type climates 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted January 22, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted January 22, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fightoffyour Posted January 22, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted January 22, 2021 Care home(s) on BBC News live now saying they’ve had residents get one dose of the vaccine and then contract Covid after the time to reach peak immunity (from that one dose that is), some get seriously and even die still. They’re calling for the second doses to be given after the suggested 2-3 weeks so that everyone can reach absolute peak immunity. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted January 22, 2021 Share Posted January 22, 2021 i can see some flaws in this plan Quote Anyone who tests positive for Covid-19 in England could be paid £500 to self-isolate under proposals to be discussed by ministers. It is among the suggestions listed in a leaked document from the Department of Health to encourage people to isolate. There are fears the current financial support is not working because low paid workers cannot afford to self-isolate. A cabinet sub-committee would weigh up the arguments for and against the policy, the environment secretary said. I reckon there’s plenty of people that would actively get the virus if they got paid £500 guaranteed. Link 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted January 22, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted January 22, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, fightoffyour said: Care home(s) on BBC News live now saying they’ve had residents get one dose of the vaccine and then contract Covid after the time to reach peak immunity (from that one dose that is), some get seriously and even die still. They’re calling for the second doses to be given after the suggested 2-3 weeks so that everyone can reach absolute peak immunity. I'm gobsmacked that's not all over BBC website and other news sources. You would think that's a top story! Edited January 22, 2021 by sidcow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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