Generic Virus Thread

[foreveryoung]

20 minutes ago, sidcow said:

Yeah, which trustworthy source which isn't a random Web site. 

Some people still don't believe in the "re-education" camps. I sure a scientist or 2 can be silenced if need be.

[choffer]

57 minutes ago, Jareth said:

Informative bloke on Twitter predicts half of the last wave's hospital admissions and about 30% of its deaths. Not too bad an outcome all-in-all...

 

Trouble is there’s so many variables that his thread don’t account for. The number one for me would be that first wave hospitalisations/deaths happened during a near total lockdown. We don’t show any signs of doing that this time around and we cannot even hazard a guess as to what positive impact the lockdown(s) had on the spread and consequently the numbers. 
I don’t want to be a Debbie Downer but it just feels like it’s almost impossible to compare what happened before to what happens now. The suggestion is that omicron is less harmful but a lot more transmissible. By how much (of either) we don’t yet know. 

[El Zen]

Further reports, out of Hong Kong this time, suggesting omicron is significantly milder than delta on the lungs. It seems to survive and reproduce better in the higher respiratory system and is more likely to leave your lungs alone. Which could be very good news, hinting at a soon-to-be dominant variant that behaves more like the common cold than its predecessors. Hopefully these findings continue to be reinforced as more and more data becomes available. I’m going to choose to be optimistic about it anyway. 

Edited December 16, 2021 by El Zen

[sidcow]

9 hours ago, El Zen said:

Further reports, out of Hong Kong this time, suggesting omicron is significantly milder than delta on the lungs. It seems to survive and reproduce better in the higher respiratory system and is more likely to leave your lungs alone. Which could be very good news, hinting at a soon-to-be dominant variant that behaves more like the common cold than its predecessors. Hopefully these findings continue to be reinforced as more and more data becomes available. I’m going to choose to be optimistic about it anyway. 

Finger and toes crossed that's the way of it. 

The key then becomes what happens to Delta and other variants. Can they re-infect an Omicron victim or doe they effectively die out because of it taking over. 

Edited December 16, 2021 by sidcow

[bobzy]

Woke up in the middle of the night shivering, this morning feel like everything aches, moving is tough…

…you’re damn right I tested positive. 

[Craigyh74]

14 hours ago, Rugeley Villa said:

Yeah I thought it was because Tenerife play in the Spanish league . Nah, you’re better off here. Too many foreigners over there spreading this virus 

I was over there last xmas and I felt safer there then I did back here . Everyone was following the rules unlike some of the people in the UK, plus the police don't mess about over there  

[Genie]

33 minutes ago, Craigyh74 said:

I was over there last xmas and I felt safer there then I did back here . Everyone was following the rules unlike some of the people in the UK, plus the police don't mess about over there  

I went to Majorca on October, I also felt much safer there than here.

[ml1dch]

France restricting travel from the UK from Saturday for non-French residents.

[Genie]

3 minutes ago, ml1dch said:

France restricting travel from the UK from Saturday for non-French residents.

I’m not surprised they are doing it,  but I am surprised as we know by now it makes no difference. Apart from the political point scoring it’ll make no difference to the spread of omicron.

[HanoiVillan]

52 minutes ago, bobzy said:

Woke up in the middle of the night shivering, this morning feel like everything aches, moving is tough…

…you’re damn right I tested positive. 

Take it easy mate, and get well soon.

[Mic09]

2 minutes ago, Genie said:

I’m not surprised they are doing it,  but I am surprised as we know by now it makes no difference. Apart from the political point scoring it’ll make no difference to the spread of omicron.

Same with Covid passes - France has introduced those a long time ago and it seems to have had little effect on the spread.

I think that, at this stage, there is a lot of political point scoring going on. 

[trekka]

Just got back from getting my booster.  Not bad at all - hardly any queue and I was in and out in no time.  They gave me Moderna. 

Now waiting for the inevitable side effects.  

[JoshVilla]

Tbh, I think part of the problem with the rise in cases has been people (incl the government) treating the vaccine as a sort of golden ticket to complete immunity. 2 points:

Covid App:

Person 1 (unvaccinated) - gets pinged on the app to say that they been in contact with someone positive. Has to isolate for 10 days and do a test every single day. 9 negative tests in a row? 99.9% sure that you're fine? Doesnt matter, you have to stay inside.

Person 2 (vaccinated) - gets pinged on the app, has to do one test only on the day that they get pinged. If its negative, you go on your merry way. Never mind the fact that they could test positive for asymptomatic covid a few days later, the rules have allowed them to potentially go and spread it (yes, at few reduced rate, but they're still going to be able to spread it).

Stadiums:

To me, a negative test is a much better banker on reducing the spread. Triple jabbed? Fine, but you can still have it and spread it, and you don't need to do a test to get into a stadium. If unvaccinated people have done tests to get in, which are negative (yes, the accuracy is somewhat sketchy), then who do we blame if there's a steep rise in cases following sports events?

 

It's an interesting point, I think. I just don't really know what the end game is. Like many have said, we can't just lock down forever. I just think it's interesting that many will automatically point the finger at the unvaccinated population as the problem, when in some cases the spread could potentially come more from vaccinated people that aren't testing and aren't taking proper care because the government has told us that taking the vaccine essentially means you can do what you want.

Edited December 16, 2021 by JoshVilla
Typo

[Morley_crosses_to_Withe]

13 hours ago, sidcow said:

I'm kind of worried about my parents. 

They were in the very first days of the booster so had theirs nearly 2 months ago now.  They're both elderly and my dad has plenty of underlying health issues.   How potent is their booster now after 2 months? 

I saw a report that Jethro was double jabbed AND boosted so even the full house can't stop you dying. 

My brother will be down for Christmas and I guarantee he'll be in pubs and socialising every day he's down here going back to theirs every night. 

I’m pretty sure Chris Witty said yesterday that the most vulnerable will need four jabs. 

[Genie]

10 minutes ago, Morley_crosses_to_Withe said:

I’m pretty sure Chris Witty said yesterday that the most vulnerable will need four jabs. 

Yes he did, for them 3 doses is “standard” and a 4th is the booster

[Genie]

Had my booster last night, apart from a stiff shoulder I feel fine.

[The Fun Factory]

18 minutes ago, Morley_crosses_to_Withe said:

I’m pretty sure Chris Witty said yesterday that the most vulnerable will need four jabs. 

John Prescott x 2?

[CVByrne]

13 hours ago, Jareth said:

Informative bloke on Twitter predicts half of the last wave's hospital admissions and about 30% of its deaths. Not too bad an outcome all-in-all...

 

 

People need to remember last July there was the prediction that 200k cases per day by mid August. With 100k cases per day said to be inevitable. It peaked at 60k cases then rapidly fell to 20k cases per day. The hospital admissions were less than the lowest end of the projections in the modelling. 

All the data from South Africa seems to point to the cases peaking (or at least a rapid reduction in the R number) in Guateng and this is despite testing being double normal levels in the last week. So the base assumption here in the UK from all the scientists is "plan for the worst, hope for the best". 

Anecdotally, I live in London and 6 people I know have caught covid in the last week / 10 days and 5 of them had Covid before. All of them are reporting a mild cold or no symptoms. Plus the booster campaign is showing huge numbers 600k per day and will be higher now since they ended the 15 mins observation time. 

We've yet to see hospital admission spike in line with case rates even to the level of the July reopening. It seems case to hospitalisation rate is 1/3rd of what it was with the June/July Delta surge based on London data.

So case for being optimistic here is.

1) The projections of the number of daily cases will prove wrong again by a significant margin. (they were massively wrong in Summer and we've the data from South Africa showing Omicron peaking in Guateng). 

2) The cases to hospitalisation admissions link is lower now than it was in the last wave in Summer. Also hospital stay is lower too so number of people in hospital with Covid has been relatively steady for the last 5 months. 

3) The booster campaign (which is the main reason the Government are all doomsayers atm) is showing huge numbers and will further increase protection and reduce the link between infection and hospitalisations

and Finally. When this wave passes and we see no significant pressure on NHS and no restrictions beyond the current Plan B ones. We know for future waves we can just get on with life and stop worrying around infection numbers and lockdowns etc..

 

With the exception of vaccinations. Omicron is the best thing that has happened in the pandemic to date. We'll be saying that in 6 weeks time I'm confident of it based on all the data available. 

Edited December 16, 2021 by CVByrne

[HanoiVillan]

3 minutes ago, CVByrne said:

 

People need to remember last July there was the prediction that 200k cases per day by mid August. With 100k cases per day said to be inevitable. It peaked at 60k cases then rapidly fell to 20k cases per day. The hospital admissions we less than the lowest end of the projections in the modelling. 

All the data from South Africa seems to point to the cases peaking (or at least a rapid reduction in the R number) and this is despite testing being double normal levels in the last week. So the base assumption here in the UK from all the scientists is "plan for the worst, hope for the best".

Certainly the numbers seem to be suggesting that in Gauteng, yes. Also worth noting that South Africa has changed absolutely nothing about restrictions, in policy terms; restrictions have remained at their lowest level throughout this wave.

Edited December 16, 2021 by HanoiVillan

[CVByrne]

3 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

Certainly the numbers seem to be suggesting that in Gauteng, yes. Also worth noting that South Africa has changed absolutely nothing about restrictions, in policy terms; restrictions have remained at their lowest level throughout this wave.

Exactly, the Government here are using this opportunity to get a big drive for the booster campaign knowing it'll help everything in the long run. So they're making sure not to to say anything optimistic right now and telling people to ignore the data available from South Africa just in case it slows the vaccination uptake. 

There is no way they'll bring in more restrictions based on the data available. I think when the London wave peaks they can't hide the evidence anymore and news agencies will report it etc.. and then the booster numbers will drop off as the fearmongering subsides.