The Hung Like a Donkey General Election December 2019 Thread

[snowychap]

8 minutes ago, markavfc40 said:

True. I'd say there are three possible outcomes as I can't for a second see a Labour majority. The best I think the country can hope for is a Labour led coalition with SNP and Lib Dems which should keep in check some of Labours more far left policies.

I think I'd largely agree. I'd also say: by far the worst outcome would be any sort of Tory majority, especially a workable one.

Fwiw, I think any Lab/SNP/LD coalition wouldn't survive much past a second (EU) referendum - perhaps it would make it to a second Scots Independence referendum.

Edited November 11, 2019 by snowychap

[bickster]

12 minutes ago, snowychap said:

Though we could get minority or majority versions of each and the difference between those versions is huge, I'd say.

 

I really can't see a majority for any one party.

I don't think Labour will do as badly as the polls suggest, I can actually see a few seats they might actually gain back

I think the LibDems and SNP will take Tory seats. Scotland obviously for the SNP, London and the South West for the LibDems. I really don't see many places where the Tories take Labour seats, not in the numbers to balance the losses the Tories will take

My current thinking is Tories with the most seats but nowhere near enough to form a Government even if the DUP supported them again.

I also think as the election comes closer, regardless of the media and whatever the NF Corp do, the gap between Labour and Tory will shorten. I also think the current Lab / Tory aspects of the polling is a little off reality anyway

[Chindie]

The best you're hoping for really is a hung parliament.

Labour won't get a majority, though I expect they'll do better than the polls currently suggest. The Lib Dems aren't going to work with Labour. They're far more comfortable with Tories. And Labour has a weird relationship with the SNP, where any chance of a coalition is going to rely on a fast independence referendum and a fractious relationship in the meantime.

I'm still expecting the New Year to have a Tory government. Whether that's a small majority or through coalition, who knows, but this country is thick and Tories gonna Tory.

This, of course, will be Labour's fault.

[snowychap]

23 minutes ago, bickster said:

I really can't see a majority for any one party.

...

I don't take issue with any of your thoughts there. I was just covering all of the potential bases whereby we could see Tory or Labour led administrations.

Much like Mark, I can really only see the three possibilities - I'm still trying to avoid any predictions on my behalf, though!

18 minutes ago, Chindie said:

The Lib Dems aren't going to work with Labour. They're far more comfortable with Tories.

They certainly wouldn't be more comfortable with the Tories this time around.

HoC arithmetic might change the Lib Dem tune come Dec 13th if siding with Labour gets a second referendum and not siding with them means a rerun after 31st Jan.

[Chindie]

6 minutes ago, snowychap said:

I don't take issue with any of your thoughts there. I was just covering all of the potential bases whereby we could see Tory or Labour led administrations.

Much like Mark, I can really only see the three possibilities - I'm still trying to avoid any predictions on my behalf, though!

They certainly wouldn't be more comfortable with the Tories this time around.

HoC arithmetic might change the Lib Dem tune come Dec 13th if siding with Labour gets a second referendum and not siding with them means a rerun after 31st Jan.

True... But let's say Lib Dems are kingmakers and the opportunity to work with either of the big parties to form a government. I've no doubt the Lib Dems will make a second referendum a prerequisite of working with either. The Tories won't be that happy with that but might take a Deal v No Deal option to get the keys to No.10 again and the Lib Dems I could see climbing down on Remain outright at the sniff of power again, because Lib Dems. With Labour they'll demand Corbyn goes, because he's worse than Brexit, but if his leadership puts Labour in the conversation then having him go would seem shitty.

I just really don't see a Lib Dem/Labour coalition happening without Labour fundamentally going back to the right, and the dislike of Corbyn is the only thing I really think Lib Dems have as a concrete policy. Everything else is somewhat negotiable to say the least.

[bickster]

17 minutes ago, snowychap said:

 

HoC arithmetic might change the Lib Dem tune come Dec 13th if siding with Labour gets a second referendum and not siding with them means a rerun after 31st Jan.

Agreed, I really don't see how the LibDems form a govt with the Tories this time around, it’s just too big a stretch given the policy gap

[HanoiVillan]

I can see them doing it. The Lib Dems have said they absolutely will not do anything that puts Corbyn in number 10, so all that has to happen is Labour refuse to change leader just because Jo Swinson says so, and then the Tories offer a second referendum on Johnson's WA, and then that would do it.

[Vive_La_Villa]

If the Tories and Labour are both going to get us a deal to leave. Wouldn't you expect the working class that still want to leave to vote for Labour rather than the Tories?
 

I think Labour are going to do a lot better than people expect.

Edited November 11, 2019 by Vive_La_Villa

[snowychap]

@Chindie, @bickster, @HanoiVillan

I have to say I'm with Bicks on this one.

 

[HanoiVillan]

Interesting chart and thought (not predictive in any way, just interesting):

 

[chrisp65]

She said categorically she would not do any deals with any nationalist parties.

Then did the deal.

A deputy title in a Tory government is like catnip to them. She’d be stood grinning at that podium in the rose garden before you could say twenty seven thousand seven hundred and fifty pounds at five point four per cent interest.

[tonyh29]

1 hour ago, markavfc40 said:

True. I'd say there are three possible outcomes as I can't for a second see a Labour majority. The best I think the country can hope for is a Labour led coalition with SNP and Lib Dems which should keep in check some of Labours more far left policies.

the SNP demand will almost certainly be an independent referendum before they will back them  ... I’m just curious , if they were propping up Labour with their 52 votes ( assumption figure ) and then win their “freedom” , could that then result in the Tories having a majority in the house ? 

[blandy]

3 hours ago, Sid4ever said:

Taken me a while, but I am now thinking BW is your MP as he is mine (one across crossword clue from weeks ago).  Same quandary for me, should the Lib Dem candidate not stand down

No. Keep guessing Sid.

[Chindie]

20 minutes ago, snowychap said:

@Chindie, @bickster, @HanoiVillan

I have to say I'm with Bicks on this one.

 

Admittedly I'm not an optimist by any means and view Lib Dems similarly to hungry dogs - their master is whoever will feed them.

With the difference being they wouldn't eat from Corbyn's bowl.

[snowychap]

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

 

7 hours ago, tonyh29 said:

and then win their “freedom” , could that then result in the Tories having a majority in the house ? 

I think it does,  it will be a Tory government for a generation if that happens.  However after 10 years Scotland of their tropical freedom they will have a brain drain like no other country as I suspect the grass really will be greener down south,  they will just need to think how to get over the wall

Serious question,  are they actually mad enough to do it ? Will they all still walk around with the pound in their pocket but claim to be free?

 

[Genie]

Could a Labour / SNP majority happen? Seems like a reasonably logical alliance in many ways.

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

20 minutes ago, Genie said:

Could a Labour / SNP majority happen? Seems like a reasonably logical alliance in many ways.

But,  it (Sturgeon), would want a 2nd ref guarantee on Scotland and thus remove the majority you speak about ? IMO she is the most dangerous person in British politics,  I doubt anyone wants to work with her.  

[Genie]

2 minutes ago, Amsterdam_Neil_D said:

But,  it (Sturgeon), would want a 2nd ref guarantee on Scotland and thus remove the majority you speak about ? IMO she is the most dangerous person in British politics,  I doubt anyone wants to work with her.  

Would she not settle for a second EU referendum? I can understand why she'd want to lead Scotland back into the EU so maybe being part of keeping the entire UK in might be a close second. I don't know btw, just speculating.

Edited November 12, 2019 by Genie

[Chindie]

The SNP's raison d'etre is Scottish independence. With the result close last time and a clear schism between Scottish and English and Welsh politics on Europe, if they are to assist a party in government that assistance will come at the price of another referendum for Scotland.

Labour and the SNP don't have the greatest relationship either.

Edited November 12, 2019 by Chindie