Demitri_C

18/19 Race for Promotion

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2 hours ago, One For The Road said:

No I said we would not go up, no chance of automatic but we could scrape the play offs. I was right, although we actually made the play offs comfortably we still didn't go up. I got dogs abuse for suggesting there was no way for automatic and yet, I was bang on.

We fell short but there was a chance. I think bang on is giving yourself way too much credit.

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15 minutes ago, Demitri_C said:

We needed to be close to the top before December and we won’t be if Brice stays. This is second year where he has started pathetically. In fact I would say this has been worse 

Given the easy start to the fixtures this season it is definitely worse.  We picked up 18 points last season against the bottom 3.  After a third of the matches against teams in the relegation zone this season we have managed just 2 points.  If you compare like-for-like results (based on league position of the clubs we have played) we are 9 points worse off this season compared to last.

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Change the manager now and we should still make the top 6. We still have a quality attack for this level after all. Abraham with his 20 odd goals for Bristol, Bolaise good at this level for Palace a few years back, Kodjia and Grealish etc. Plenty for the next guy to work with.

Let things drift however and that will become distant. We've hardly played a good game all season, Brentford imo was our best performance and we were 10 seconds away from losing that at home.

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57 minutes ago, praisedmambo said:

We fell short but there was a chance. I think bang on is giving yourself way too much credit.

I said we had no chance of top 2. I was right. How many days did we spend in the top 2 again?

Now I am saying we won't make the top 6. I will be right again.

Edited by One For The Road

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8 hours ago, villan-scott said:

More importantly, we haven’t made any ground. 

Actually we've gained a point on 2nd

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On 16/09/2018 at 03:58, One For The Road said:

I disagree with all of this. You seem to think we are something we aren't.

"This squad will challenge for the playoffs regardless" Really? Based on what?? I think it will be miracle if we finish in the top 6. It just isn't going to happen. And you really are in dreamland when you start talking about finishing top 2.

I'd bet everything I own on us not being in within 15 points and 5 or 6 places of the top 2.

We have no defence and League 2 standard goalkeeper. Plus a manager that doesn't know how to get the best out of the squad, which isn't a great squad to start with.

Play offs? No chance.

We have the best attacking players in the league by a mile. Name another team with a £30m winger or a a CM worth that? Our players should be top 6 easily and with a good manager we’d piss this league. 

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2 hours ago, dn1982 said:

We have the best attacking players in the league by a mile. Name another team with a £30m winger or a a CM worth that? Our players should be top 6 easily and with a good manager we’d piss this league. 

There are two sides to a football pitch. Our attack isn't up for debate. Its probably the best in the league on paper. 

Our defence is dreadful. That's the issue. Not the attack.

You don't piss this league with Nyland in goal and only one centre back.

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6 hours ago, One For The Road said:

There are two sides to a football pitch. Our attack isn't up for debate. Its probably the best in the league on paper. 

Our defence is dreadful. That's the issue. Not the attack.

You don't piss this league with Nyland in goal and only one centre back.

Nyland is a good keeper for this level. Our defence isnt great but neither are most in this league. We have the players to dominate every game so our defence shouldn’t be under loads of pressure but we have a manager that lets us get dominated by how he sets up. 

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On 16/09/2018 at 11:58, allani said:

Given the easy start to the fixtures this season it is definitely worse.  We picked up 18 points last season against the bottom 3.  After a third of the matches against teams in the relegation zone this season we have managed just 2 points.  If you compare like-for-like results (based on league position of the clubs we have played) we are 9 points worse off this season compared to last.

But teams do change so like for like comparison doesn’t really work.

We are no worse off then last season, we are statistically exactly the same.

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Do wonder if part of the problem amongst your fans is there is a sense of entitlement.

"We should piss the league". . . "Best side in the league" etc etc.

But you have a lot of unknowns.

Yannick Bolasie- nasty injury, hasnt done much last few years, he may not be the player he was before.

Albert Adomah- excellent last season, season before he only got 3 league goals, may have been a one off.

El Ghazi- Shone in Holland, bit hit and miss in France, big reputation but an unknown in the league.

Tammy Abraham- great for Bristol city, but may not repeat it, wouldn't be the 1st player to do that. 

Kodjia- injury prone, difficult season last season, injuries may have taken there toll. 

Grealish- yet to show he can dominate games.

McGinn- bright start but played his whole career in Scotland, many have shone there and flopped here.

Then the experienced but ageing players like Elmo, Whealan, Jedinak, Hutton etc, past there primes in the latter 2 imo.

Then a new goalie, young on loan defender etc.

Potentially yes a great squad but "piss the league", "should beat every team on paper".

No, reputations dont win the league, and nobody knows just yet if the players on paper are as good in reality.

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On 16/09/2018 at 12:45, One For The Road said:

I said we had no chance of top 2. I was right. How many days did we spend in the top 2 again?

Now I am saying we won't make the top 6. I will be right again.

You were not right, we clearly had a chance for top 2 given that we were challenging for it up until the last few games. We didn't make it, but our chances, especially at the start of the season, were considerably more than zero

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14 minutes ago, Cjay said:

Do wonder if part of the problem amongst your fans is there is a sense of entitlement........

 

14 minutes ago, Cjay said:

No, reputations dont win the league, and nobody knows just yet if the players on paper are as good in reality.

I don't think a sense of entitlement is right. We shouldn't hide from the fact or play down that we are the biggest club in this division though. Our history, fan base, turnover, the players we can attract etc combined proves that so there is no point in us downplaying it. That doesn't mean we have a sense of entitlement that just means that logically we are able to attract better players than most clubs at this level and therefore should be competing up the top end.

I do agree that games aren't won on paper as if that was the case we'd have finished top 2 last season and Cardiff would have been mid table.

I think players and managers have struggled with the expectation levels you face when playing for/managing Aston Villa and the pressure that brings. I dare say that has also been the case with Leeds. Conversely though if you can get players who can feed off that expectation, revel in playing in front of 30-40 odd thousand fans every other week then that should again give you an advantage over most clubs at this level.

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54 minutes ago, weedman said:

You were not right, we clearly had a chance for top 2 given that we were challenging for it up until the last few games. We didn't make it, but our chances, especially at the start of the season, were considerably more than zero

I thought we did far better than I expected. And still didn't go up. I said we wouldn't go up and we didn't. Although I do concede that we did better than I thought.

As for "challenging for it until a few games before", we were always playing catch up. We never looked like finishing 2nd. As I expected.

 

Edited by One For The Road

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1 hour ago, One For The Road said:

I thought we did far better than I expected. And still didn't go up. I said we wouldn't go up and we didn't. Although I do concede that we did better than I thought.

As for "challenging for it until a few games before", we were always playing catch up. We never looked like finishing 2nd. As I expected.

 

Had you said "I don't think we'll go up" you'd have been right 100%, but you didn't say that, you said we had "no chance", which was wrong 

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7 hours ago, Tommo_b said:

But teams do change so like for like comparison doesn’t really work.

We are no worse off then last season, we are statistically exactly the same.

That is why I compared the results against the results against the teams that finished in the same position last season (so Ipswich are bottom - so compare the result against Sunderland from last season - as that feels more like a direct comparison than comparing last year's result against Ipswich because they finished 12th).  Obviously it is still not foolproof as it doesn't reflect that we might have played the team that finished in x position when they were on a good or bad streak. 

Anyway, the point remains that this season we have played more teams who are in the bottom half of the table than was the case this time last season and that needs to be taken into consideration when comparing the two.

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