Awol Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 26 minutes ago, peterms said: Love that first sentence. America is a force for good in the Middle East. Trying to choke back the vomit. It was the brass neck of the last line that struck me. A “sovereign Iraq”. So sovereign we ain’t leaving, even if you ask! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KenjiOgiwara Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 3 minutes ago, Awol said: It was the brass neck of the last line that struck me. A “sovereign Iraq”. So sovereign we ain’t leaving, even if you ask! Think the best bit is "we want to be a friend.." to the people we like and put in power is my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 1 minute ago, KenjiOgiwara said: Think the best bit is "we want to be a friend.." to the people we like and put in power is my guess. Relationship status: It’s complicated. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peterms Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 22 minutes ago, Awol said: Relationship status: It’s complicated. An abusive relationship. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted January 10, 2020 Share Posted January 10, 2020 Just now, peterms said: An abusive relationship. If they are formally asked to leave & refuse to, then yes, and it will lead to even more trouble. It really all depends on what line the new PM (when they get one, not the current interim) and the Parliament takes. Plenty of Iraqis (including nationalist Shia figures like Sistani) don’t want Baghdad to be an Iranian proxy, but also reject ISIS, so tolerate the coalition presence to balance against both, while broadly disliking it on principle. 2014/15 was a close run thing and Abu Bakir Al Baghdadi’s merry men made it to the outskirts of Baghdad before being forced back by a coalition of sworn enemies - Iranians, Americans & Iraqi nationalist Shia militias. ISIS hasn’t gone away, but has been reduced enough for the tensions between those allies of convenience to flair up again. If the US leaves now it will undoubtedly lead to civil war in Iraq and then the wider region. If they stay having been ordered by Parliament and the acting PM to leave (which hasn’t happened yet) then they’ll be targeted by everyone - aside from then also being an illegal occupier, not an invited guest. Killing Soleimani hasn’t caused this problem, it’s much deeper and stems from clashing interests between those three main actors - hence Iran’s escalating aggression over many months. Where it goes from here will depend largely on how the Iraqi domestic political scene shakes out, under US and Iranian pressure. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 The Iranians have now admitted they shot the airliner down themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KHV Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 53 minutes ago, Awol said: The Iranians have now admitted they shot the airliner down themselves. Pretty hard to continue to deny when it’s all on camera Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Davkaus Posted January 11, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted January 11, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, Awol said: The Iranians have now admitted they shot the airliner down themselves. Shocking news. A technical failure seemed so plausible. I guess they meant "technically it struggled to fly after we technically shot a missile at it". Edited January 11, 2020 by Davkaus 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Well yesterday they were saying that was scientifically impossible. So are they now suggesting they shot it down with a miracle? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KenjiOgiwara Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 So would this have happened if the US had not attacked another country (again)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr_Pangloss Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, Davkaus said: Shocking news. A technical failure seemed so plausible. I guess they meant "technically it struggled to fly after we technically shot a missile at it". A couple on here were parroting that line and it never passed the smell test. Edited January 11, 2020 by Dr_Pangloss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr_Pangloss Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 (edited) 40 minutes ago, KenjiOgiwara said: So would this have happened if the US had not attacked another country (again)? Or you could say that if the air traffic control and over relevant functions in Tehran had half a brain, or if the idiots operating the SAM had half a brain this wouldn't have happened, or perhaps it was done on purpose? Edited January 11, 2020 by Dr_Pangloss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bannedfromHandV Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 1 hour ago, chrisp65 said: Well yesterday they were saying that was scientifically impossible. So are they now suggesting they shot it down with a miracle? It’s all gods work isn’t it out there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
astondalston Posted January 11, 2020 VT Supporter Share Posted January 11, 2020 Given the role of Oman as diplomatic facilitator between US/Iran/Yemen/Israel/insert quarrelling country, I'm intrigued to see what impact the passing of Sultan Qaboos and succession by new leader will have. The stability in Oman has been a solitary positive in the region until now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peterms Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 1 hour ago, KenjiOgiwara said: So would this have happened if the US had not attacked another country (again)? Pretty unlikely, I'd have thought. After Trump's threats of more war crimes, as well as the US murder of the general, they were obviously on the highest alert and expecting attacks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 19 minutes ago, astondalston said: Given the role of Oman as diplomatic facilitator between US/Iran/Yemen/Israel/insert quarrelling country, I'm intrigued to see what impact the passing of Sultan Qaboos and succession by new leader will have. The stability in Oman has been a solitary positive in the region until now. I lived there from 2010-17. The new Sultan is as continuity candidate as you could get - and a massive Anglophile. The speed with which they’ve handled the transition this morning is remarkable. No opportunity for neighbours to try and get involved in mischief making. Serious people in a dangerous region. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyh29 Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 1 hour ago, Dr_Pangloss said: A couple on here were parroting that line and it never passed the smell test. Tbf I don’t think that’s true , General consensus was planes don’t catch fire and crash ... but , I just went back and read the thread and unless I’ve missed something there was some debate over whether the US shot it down , some saying accidentally shot down due to incompetence ( winners !! ) , theories about a bomb or collision and conspiracy about Boeing and LM and a post hoping that it was just a coincidental accident ... but I didn’t see any parroting of an accident line from anyone ??? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
astondalston Posted January 11, 2020 VT Supporter Share Posted January 11, 2020 1 hour ago, Awol said: I lived there from 2010-17. The new Sultan is as continuity candidate as you could get - and a massive Anglophile. The speed with which they’ve handled the transition this morning is remarkable. No opportunity for neighbours to try and get involved in mischief making. Serious people in a dangerous region. Im travelling there on an almost monthly basis. Glad it’s been dealt with so quickly with the mythical two envelopes. Just surprised it wasn’t the foreign minister? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 42 minutes ago, astondalston said: Im travelling there on an almost monthly basis. Glad it’s been dealt with so quickly with the mythical two envelopes. Just surprised it wasn’t the foreign minister? He isn’t family. The Al Said’s have ruled Muscat (and the Al Busaidi’s, Zanzibar) since the 16th Century. Yusuf Alawi is very important in Dhofar though. Book called “Unshook Till the End of Time” by Robert Alston & Stuart Laing traces the history of the Anglo-Omani relationship from 1650-1970. Good background reading if you’re there a lot. Working in Duqm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
astondalston Posted January 11, 2020 VT Supporter Share Posted January 11, 2020 1 hour ago, Awol said: He isn’t family. The Al Said’s have ruled Muscat (and the Al Busaidi’s, Zanzibar) since the 16th Century. Yusuf Alawi is very important in Dhofar though. Book called “Unshook Till the End of Time” by Robert Alston & Stuart Laing traces the history of the Anglo-Omani relationship from 1650-1970. Good background reading if you’re there a lot. Working in Duqm? Mainly Muscat, Sohar and Salalah but Duqm will become more regular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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