Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[avfc1982am]

1 hour ago, limpid said:

It's as likely to be disgruntled Russians as Ukrainians though. For example, the relatives of all the people having "window accidents".

I think this is actually the most likely method of attack that will have any bearing on this conflict within the Russian Government. Organised assassination attempts on Russian diplomats by disgruntled Oligarchs.

 

 

[Demitri_C]

1 hour ago, avfc1982am said:

What your talking about isn't thought of as terrorism. Even most individual attacks classed as terrorism are for a cause and part of a bigger picture, or further attacks. Like I said, politically or religious. An individual going off their head because of a personal grievance isn't classed as terrorism. That person wont be remember as a martyr.

Take mass shootings.... such a barbaric crime. Some of these are carried out by extremists, whatever you want to call them. Others are carried out by those with no cause, no reason and no objective other than to kill because of some internal pain. That's not a terrorist but a nutcase.  

 

But what your describing id perception. Any form of attack of this nature woikd be deemed as terrorism.  You can be sure russia would call it a terrorist attack. Wouldnt  you call a terrorist a nutcase? Thats the same thing in my opinion

2 hours ago, avfc1982am said:

I think your a little confused. "Terrorists" are a group or individuals that plan attacks, there is thought put into attacks regardless of how barbaric, or in many cases ill planned. Terrorist's in general have political or religious aims, not personal.

There is a difference between those that have lost their minds due to personal circumstances and those that are organised or part of a faction. Terrorists think very logically and it's the reason they are far more dangerous. 

At some point suicide bombs and such may become common place in Russia, dependent on how far this conflict goes, however, if they do it will most likely be because of organisation and group planning. 

 

To this part no terrorist thinks logically because they are actually killing themselves in the process.  Only the people who are not stupid enough to put their own lives by blowing themselves up think logically as they want to cause destruction without themselves getting their hands dirty. 

[tonyh29]

5 hours ago, limpid said:

It's as likely to be disgruntled Russians as Ukrainians though. For example, the relatives of all the people having "window accidents".

I had a Russian advent calendar this year ,  every-time I opened one of the windows a Russian Oligarch fell out 

[avfc1982am]

53 minutes ago, Demitri_C said:

But what your describing id perception. Any form of attack of this nature woikd be deemed as terrorism.  You can be sure russia would call it a terrorist attack. Wouldnt  you call a terrorist a nutcase? Thats the same thing in my opinion

To this part no terrorist thinks logically because they are actually killing themselves in the process.  Only the people who are not stupid enough to put their own lives by blowing themselves up think logically as they want to cause destruction without themselves getting their hands dirty. 

What I am describing is very much perception, but based on whether or not the act they carry out is premeditated, organised and the individual or group intend to carry out an act based on political, religious or ideological reasons . However to just label anyone with a death wish a terrorist is arguably lazy.  

Would I call a terrorist a nutcase? Tricky.... That would again be dependant on the situation and who they are trying to terrorise and what the end goal is. As you mentioned above after saying terrorist don't think logically. Terrorists can think logically, because not every terrorist blows themselves up. 

Like you mentioned, Joe Bloggs loses everything and has nothing to live for and decides to lose his shit and kills someone. Is he really a terrorist or some dude that lost his shit?! 

And of course Russia as with any government would throw the label of terrorist at anyone committing a violent act on their soil. Just the same as everywhere else. 

We could go round in circles arguing the point regarding an act of terror being the thing that labels the individual, but it never paints the whole picture. .

 

 

[avfc1982am]

3 in a week. This time rocket man whilst under house arrest.

 

Vladimir Putin's 'rocket man' Vladimir Nesterov dies: Fourth official in days to 'die mysteriously' (msn.com)

The man who made Vladimir Putin's dreams of space exploration possible has died aged 74.

Vladimir Nesterov, is the latest casualty this year among Russia's elite and the fourth official reported dead in a matter of days. 

He pioneered the new 'world's best' Angara rocket and was the former general director of the Khrunichev Centre, which Putin hoped would facilitate Russia's first manned mission to the moon.

Since 2014, Nesterov has been dogged by persistent allegations of fraud and embezzlement. 

Authorities accused him of pocketing upwards of £57million, and he had been under house arrest pending further investigation.

Nesterov's cause of death has not been revealed. 

Alexander Buzakov, 65, director general of Admiralty Shipyards, in charge of building new submarines armed with deadly Kalibr missiles, also unexpectedly died earlier this week.

And General Alexei Maslov, 69, former commander of Russian ground forces with close ties to Ukraine, died 'suddenly' on Christmas day, after Putin abruptly cancelled a trip to the tank enterprise where he worked as an international sales ambassador.

[avfc1982am]

If your Russian, involved in or have in classified info, or just filthy rich. It's time to get out of dodge me thinks. 

[KentVillan]

3 hours ago, tonyh29 said:

I had a Russian advent calendar this year ,  every-time I opened one of the windows a Russian Oligarch fell out 

*Salute*

[avfc1982am]

Great breakdown by Bill Bowder

 

[blandy]

On 30/12/2022 at 01:19, bickster said:

the next question is... what was their IFF system doing? (Identification Friend or Foe)

This is a pure guess, but anyway. If people are not particularly well trained and are also jumpy, they can do really dumb things. For example, a few years ago an airliner was shot down by Iranian defences as it approached an airport in Iran, or was it Iraq?  Lots of folks with a particular world view decided it must have been the Americans wot dun it. It wasn't. It was the local defence force and after a few days they 'fessed up. Airliners have transponders too, not with military codes, but they transpond their civil status and ID etc. But it still got shot down.

So either the Russian jet had a U/S (unserviceable) transponder, in which case it shouldn't have taken off, or more likely jumpy, badly trained ground missile defences just panicked and ignored the transponder returns and shot it down anyway.

 

[Mandy Lifeboats]

Russia has quietly announced that it will now accept foreign currency payments for its gas supplies.  That’s a very clear indication that the ruble is now becoming worthless outside Russia.  

Russian oil is now being sold 33% cheaper than the world standard.  

Their economy is in recession at the same time as they need huge amounts of money for armaments.  

An estimated 100,000 skilled IT workers have left the country. 

Great news. 
 

 

 

[Mandy Lifeboats]

Russian social media is in meltdown at the moment.  Thousands of these leaflets have appeared in Moscow.  They the map co-ordinates of prominent military and government buildings.

 

[sidcow]

22 hours ago, avfc1982am said:

If your Russian, involved in or have in classified info, or just filthy rich. It's time to get out of dodge me thinks. 

And probably not to India either. 

A fair few Russian buddies have been day tripping there lately to view the Taj Mahal that so many of their friends have recommended they visit. 

[BleedClaretAndBlue]

 

[bickster]

Those posters may or may not be connected to this video shared by Ukrainian Defence Secretary. Nice Swan Lake reference at the end, that should put the shits up them

 

[tinker]

On 30/12/2022 at 18:44, avfc1982am said:

What I am describing is very much perception, but based on whether or not the act they carry out is premeditated, organised and the individual or group intend to carry out an act based on political, religious or ideological reasons . However to just label anyone with a death wish a terrorist is arguably lazy.  

Would I call a terrorist a nutcase? Tricky.... That would again be dependant on the situation and who they are trying to terrorise and what the end goal is. As you mentioned above after saying terrorist don't think logically. Terrorists can think logically, because not every terrorist blows themselves up. 

Like you mentioned, Joe Bloggs loses everything and has nothing to live for and decides to lose his shit and kills someone. Is he really a terrorist or some dude that lost his shit?! 

And of course Russia as with any government would throw the label of terrorist at anyone committing a violent act on their soil. Just the same as everywhere else. 

We could go round in circles arguing the point regarding an act of terror being the thing that labels the individual, but it never paints the whole picture. .

 

 

Mandela was a terrorist.....

[Delphinho123]

Some great commentary in here as always, thanks.

But, I have a dumb question to ask.

Could Russia still ‘take’ Ukraine? The plan was obviously originally to waltz into Kiev, set up a puppet regime and essentially rule the country. Could that still happen? If they mobilised more and more men? Or is it now just a case of the best case scenario being holding on to as much land as possible in the South East?

I just wonder what 2023 has in stall is all. Ta.

[bickster]

6 minutes ago, Delphinho123 said:

Some great commentary in here as always, thanks.

But, I have a dumb question to ask.

Could Russia still ‘take’ Ukraine? The plan was obviously originally to waltz into Kiev, set up a puppet regime and essentially rule the country. Could that still happen? If they mobilised more and more men? Or is it now just a case of the best case scenario being holding on to as much land as possible in the South East?

I just wonder what 2023 has in stall is all. Ta.

There is no chance of that happening now. Russia is militarily fubarred. They have missiles for a little bit longer, they've already deployed the T-62 tanks from the 1960s, issued guns that are rusting away. losy a huge ton of their serviceable mechanised armour and they have never had air superiority and are hardly ever flying over Ukraine held territory any more. There are even videos circulating of Wagner PMCs arguing with really high ranking Russian govt officials about the lack of artillery shells

Absolutely no way they can take the whole country now

[bickster]

Ukraine retaliated with some new year fireworks of their own

 

[delboy54]

Read an interesting article recently about how extreme left wingers I.e. communists, and extreme right wingers I.e. fascists, normally at other ends of the spectrum are both "supporting" Putin in his war against Ukraine.

Strange old world isn't it?

I suppose both left and right extremists occupy the same place in reality...

[Mandy Lifeboats]

6 hours ago, Delphinho123 said:

Some great commentary in here as always, thanks.

But, I have a dumb question to ask.

Could Russia still ‘take’ Ukraine? The plan was obviously originally to waltz into Kiev, set up a puppet regime and essentially rule the country. Could that still happen? If they mobilised more and more men? Or is it now just a case of the best case scenario being holding on to as much land as possible in the South East?

I just wonder what 2023 has in stall is all. Ta.

Russia would need to fully mobilise its male population and leave huge amounts of Russia completely undefended. They would literally need to use everything they have got AND hope NATO stay out of the conflict. 

That will not happen.  The loses would be horrendous and it would ruin Russia’s economy and military for decades to come.  NATO could probably prevent it happening using air power alone. 

Russia’s future is bleak.  They are fighting an actual war in Ukraine and an economic war against countries that are much richer.   But the cherry on the cake is that China isn’t really supporting Russia.  In fact some would say China are exploiting Russia for cheap gas and oil.  

Russia’s still maintaining its public bravado but it’s slowly softening its standpoints.  At the start of the war Putin threaten “immediate and unprecedented action against any country that interferes”.  NATO called his bluff.  Putin said there would be no mobilisation.  There was.  Putin said they would only accept payments in rubles.  That policy has quietly gone.  Putin threatened Sweden and Finland not to join NATO.  They immediately did. Putin then said he wasn’t bothered whether they joined or not as long as they didn’t have nukes based there. 

But the most telling factor is that Russia started the war to denazify and demilitarise Ukraine. That aim has changed numerous times.  It’s now a war to defend itself against NATO.  They are also demanding “security guarantees” from NATO.  That’s a desperate attempt to portray this as a victory to the Russian people. 

In summary - Russia is absolutely f****d.