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Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine


maqroll

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11 hours ago, bickster said:

Its on the other side of the Dnipro estuary, so it is in effect behind enemy lines as it is connected by land to the Left (East) bank that the Russians have just retreated to and not the Kherson right bank. The Russians will be forced to respond but this isn't just HIMARS territory its standard 155mm artillery range too. So if Ukraine have done this it is audacious but because of the artillery range of the 155's on the Kherson side of the river, it is also protected in a way that will be hard for the RUssians to approach but they surely must respond

I remain sceptical tbh but if it is true its both brave and devious

This. It's also most likely a ruse to get Russia to build up on that side, while the actual counter offensive is going to come around Tokmak towards Berdyansk, or in Luhansk. Ukraine has Russia by the balls, and Russia are having to defend every inch while Ukraine can just rotate their highly mobile units around to cause maximum havoc.

The Kherson offensive had much of the rapid AFV's and artillery systems that cleared Kharkiv. These will now be free to go nuts somewhere else. At this rate I wouldn't be surprised if Sieverodonetsk/Lysyshansk or Mariupol is freed before Christmas.

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2 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

This. It's also most likely a ruse to get Russia to build up on that side, while the actual counter offensive is going to come around Tokmak towards Berdyansk, or in Luhansk. Ukraine has Russia by the balls, and Russia are having to defend every inch while Ukraine can just rotate their highly mobile units around to cause maximum havoc.

The Kherson offensive had much of the rapid AFV's and artillery systems that cleared Kharkiv. These will now be free to go nuts somewhere else. At this rate I wouldn't be surprised if Sieverodonetsk/Lysyshansk or Mariupol is freed before Christmas.

There was also a report late last night of a firefight in Hola Prystan, also on the left bank but actually by the mouth of the estuary

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29 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

This. It's also most likely a ruse to get Russia to build up on that side, while the actual counter offensive is going to come around Tokmak towards Berdyansk, or in Luhansk. Ukraine has Russia by the balls, and Russia are having to defend every inch while Ukraine can just rotate their highly mobile units around to cause maximum havoc.

The Kherson offensive had much of the rapid AFV's and artillery systems that cleared Kharkiv. These will now be free to go nuts somewhere else. At this rate I wouldn't be surprised if Sieverodonetsk/Lysyshansk or Mariupol is freed before Christmas.

I doubt Russia can properly supply 30,000 + troops dug in through winter. They couldn't do it in the summer let alone the winter within HIMAR http://range.To feed, heat and water that many troops under fire would be difficult in training let alone in a real war.
I think you are correct about Xmas,  hopefully the Russians just give up.

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5 minutes ago, trekka said:

Lavrov taken to hospital after arriving in Bali apparently. :detect:

Sky News

Oh dear,  didn't expect that.  Well hopefully it's something really quite serious in nature that only Western Medicine and ongoing treatment can solve.  He is of no value,  just tip him in a skip out the back.

  

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1 minute ago, The Fun Factory said:

Was reading in the paper this weekend about a lot of flight traffic between Iran and Russia, so assume they are supplying Russia with arms?

Drones, though last week they claimed they'd stopped supplying them, even though previously they'd denied supplying them. There is significant opposition in Iran to the supply of drones to Russia because their mantra has always been neither east not west and that opposition from hardline clerics has become very vocal in recent weeks.

It does seem like the Russians have almost run out of Iranian drones, there hasn't been much talk of them recently. Multiple reasons, Ukraine are very good at shooting them down now, Russia were having to send them in swarms of 10-15. Irans capacity to make them is only 150 per week

 

 

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The Nord Stream 1 & 2 attacks made little sense to me.  Both sides could have lost much more than they could ever hope to gain.  

 

But a work colleague has a theory that seems to make sense.  

 

US were training Ukrainian Special Forces to attack undersea pipelines.  Part of this training took place around the Nord Stream pipelines in international waters.    

The US did the training outside territorial waters so that they did not have to inform any other country of the training or implicate them.  But they did not notify the Nord Stream owners for obvious reasons.  

 Russia became aware of the training and told the US to cease.   US deny any training had taken place. 

 Russia could prove the training took place and took the opportunity to blow the pipelines where the training took place.  They also had numerous historical evidence of the USA opposing Nord Stream and threatening to take it out.

 This explains several things.   The US planes and ships were in those areas in the weeks leading up to the attacks because they were conducting the training.  Russia has evidence that shows US/UK activity related to attacking undersea pipelines.    Germany is angry that “their” pipeline was used for the training but cannot publicly denounce the US.  The “Thank You USA”  tweet wasn’t accusing the USA of undertaking the operation.  It was for giving Russia an opportunity to stage the attack and blame others.     

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7 minutes ago, LondonLax said:

I think the much simpler explanation is that the US did it 🤷‍♂️

Why?

If they did it without consulting other NATO countries, it risked the end of NATO. 

If they did it after consulting other NATO countries, why keep it a secret?   

Why blow it up in International waters instead of just breaking the land connections?

 

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1 hour ago, villa89 said:

Not sure why Russia are allowed to attend the G20 summit? They should be isolated from the rest of the worlds global powers. 

I don't understand this either.  They are at best a terrorist nation.

Seems odd to invite them.  Their leadership is sub-human,  it feels counter productive to let them think that killing civilians is a thing that gets you a golden ticket.

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