Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[bickster]

4 minutes ago, Genie said:

It’s great timing with the G20 being together. They can make a plan but also speak directly with Xi and get him to commit to what he will or won’t do.

They fired the missiles beCause it was the G20. Great planing by Putin

[Genie]

Just now, bickster said:

They fired the missiles beCause it was the G20. Great planing by Putin

I realise he likes to put on a show when they are together, but I doubt he planned to land one or 2 in Poland.

I could be wrong, but I expect he’s shitting himself now. 

[ender4]

Just now, Genie said:

I realise he likes to put on a show when they are together, but I doubt he planned to land one or 2 in Poland.

I could be wrong, but I expect he’s shitting himself now. 

He probably doesn’t even know. His generals will have told him that it’s NATO making things up so they can invade Russia.

[Mandy Lifeboats]

Calm.   Breathe.  

A missile accidentally falling on Poland isn't likely to cause intervention by NATO land forces, let alone WW3 or nuclear war.  

Let's assess the sides for this World War.  Russia, Belarus and Iran v NATO isn't a world war.  Its a walkover.  

China isn't stupid.  Why would they ally with the remnants of Russia's Army?  They would effectively be fighting NATO alone. 

China has been very clear that they will not tolerate the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine.  Russia isn't going to destroy itself to keep hold of land they stole less than 10 year ago.  

Nuclear war does not just happen. They are prepared and those preparations are monitored.   An all out first strike  has huge disadvantages.  

This accident will lead to consequences for Russia.  There are a few hundred more steps between here and WW3.  

 

 

[LondonLax]

We’re not going to start WW3 over stray missiles. Especially if it turns out it was Ukrainian missile defence that hit Poland.

We might get some improved Ukrainian air defence out of it at least.

[BleedClaretAndBlue]

 

[Delphinho123]

3 minutes ago, BleedClaretAndBlue said:

 

The full fledged response might just be an absolute gluttony of weapons delivered to the Ukrainians. It might be even more sanctions and that comment might be in retaliation for a deliberate attack.

There is just no way the Russians have just decided to target a farm in Poland. It’s a stray missile or something shot down by Ukrainians and the last thing anyone needs is huge retaliation. 

[BleedClaretAndBlue]

Give them some F16s i say

[fruitvilla]

OK here was my take when the news broke:

• Likely accidental or unintentional, though did two missiles land in the same place?
• No justification for an (official) attack on Russia.
• This is a "justified" opportunity to take control of the skies over Ukraine. Some may have argued the justification was there already
• Increased political and economic pressure on the Kremlin, it is almost as though Putin is not in charge anymore.

[bickster]

2 minutes ago, BleedClaretAndBlue said:

Give them some F16s i say

You can't, it takes a considerable amount of time to learn to fly them and that program hasn't started yet

[bickster]

2 minutes ago, fruitvilla said:

OK here was my take when the news broke:

• Likely accidental or unintentional, though did two missiles land in the same place?
• No justification for an (official) attack on Russia.
• This is a "justified" opportunity to take control of the skies over Ukraine. Some may have argued the justification was there already
• Increased political and economic pressure on the Kremlin, it is almost as though Putin is not in charge anymore.

If it wasn't a missile shot down by Ukraine, then the bit in bold is incorrect.

The Black Sea Fleet would have been at the bottom of the sea pretty sharpish. It would have been justified as removing the means of delivery

[bickster]

8 minutes ago, Delphinho123 said:

It’s a stray missile or something shot down by Ukrainians and the last thing anyone needs is huge retaliation.

These are two entirely different scenarios

Stray missile is 100% Russias fault

There is no sorry guv our missiles are a bit shit defence

[fruitvilla]

1 minute ago, bickster said:

If it wasn't a missile shot down by Ukraine, then the bit in bold is incorrect.

I get what you are saying, but if it were a misguided missile, I would still err on the side of a cautious response.

If Russia is intentionally taking out Polish granary equipment, I would be scratching my head for a response.

[fruitvilla]

4 minutes ago, bickster said:

Stray missile is 100% Russias fault

In jest (partly) ... no it is the West's fault for forcing Russia to use inferior electronics. 

[Genie]

Just now, fruitvilla said:

I get what you are saying, but if it were a misguided missile, I would still err on the side of a cautious response.

If Russia is intentionally taking out Polish granary equipment, I would be scratching my head for a response.

The thing is this war is screwing up the world economy and the G20 have spent a lot of time thinking about how to sort it out. 
This presents an opportunity, with risk of course, but an opportunity nonetheless to get some kind of stability in the medium term.

I just don’t see the Nukes coming out from either side. NATO will come into play, and threaten immediate action if Russia do not retreat. Russia have pulled the tigers tail one too many times.

[Delphinho123]

6 minutes ago, bickster said:

These are two entirely different scenarios

Stray missile is 100% Russias fault

There is no sorry guv our missiles are a bit shit defence

Ok, I understand it’s not a defence, but at the same time, there is a proportionate response here and I’m sure that isn’t quite WW3! 

[fruitvilla]

2 minutes ago, Genie said:

The thing is this war is screwing up the world economy and the G20 have spent a lot of time thinking about how to sort it out. 
This presents an opportunity, with risk of course, but an opportunity nonetheless to get some kind of stability in the medium term.

I just don’t see the Nukes coming out from either side. NATO will come into play, and threaten immediate action if Russia do not retreat. Russia have pulled the tigers tail one too many times.

I agree completely ... there is an opportunity, but as Delph says ... it has to be a proportionate response.

[villakram]

Galicia must return to the motherland!

[Genie]

2 minutes ago, fruitvilla said:

I agree completely ... there is an opportunity, but as Delph says ... it has to be a proportionate response.

I think a middle ground (literally) would be NATO attacking Russian troops in Ukraine, and not Russia itself.

[Mandy Lifeboats]

Read this if you are worried about nukes.  

During the late 80s and early 90s I was part of the Civil Defence.  At the first hint of war I had a place at the now demolished shelter in Harborne.  It was in Rose Avenue??  Rose Road?? My role was to monitor reports coming in from various places and try to work out what had hit the UK and what it meant in  terms of damage, casualties and forthcoming dangers.  During my time I took part in many exercises simulating a nuclear attack on the UK.  

Contrary to what you see from Hollywood, a nuclear war would nor wipe out humanity.  The UK is a tiny island with a large population.  We would be devastated.  But we'd still have a million or two survivors.  Other countries would fare much better than us.  If Russia launched an attack they would not be able to destroy the military capabilities of all the countries that would now be attacking them.  Especially when they would have been devastated.  

The side that strikes first has a massive disadvantage.  China has always said that they would retaliate regardless of where that nuke was fired.  Then there is the possibility that your attack will fail.  A % of your weapons will fail to launch.  A % of you weapons will fail to detonate.  A % of your weapons will be intercepted.  A % of your weapons will stray wildly off target.  Striking first ensures guarantees that WW3 is you versus a very angry rest of the world team.  

A nuclear strike requires preparation.  You need to prepare the attack and your defences.  All of those preparations are noticeable to you enemy.  Warheads require maintenance.  Missiles need refueling.  Weapons are moved from storage to operational readiness.  This period is very dangerous for you.  The enemy might decide to strike with conventional weapons and destroy your weapons on the ground.  

The UK has a very good intelligence network.  If we thought a nuclear war was likely you would see preparations.  Assets and resources would be spread across the country.  Underground spaces would be kitted out.   Key people would disappear from public view.  Firefighting equipment would come out of storage.  Prisons would be emptied. The public would be asked to limit travel.   And much, much more.  

NOTHING I see happening today suggests we are in danger or that danger is on the horizon.  Absolutely nothing.