Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[blandy]

11 hours ago, Genie said:

I don’t know. The idea of war has been proven to be a monumentally stupid idea. Not just how it’s been executed, they just can’t compete against the RoW

Nobody could come in and make the invasion a success. The West are pushing Russia back without getting out of second gear.

Russia’s economy is screwed and the people are turning on the powers that be. To think the rest of the world would allow Russia to invade Ukraine was and would remain a complete no chance.

An analogy would be UK politics and Brexit. Just because they embarked on a monumentally stupid idea, doesn’t mean that the leader responsible gets replaced with someone who is against the thing. Instead they/we get someone wanting to do it, but even more so.

[LondonLax]

Some interesting analysis here:

 

[magnkarl]

The trickle of raw recruits into Ukraine has already started. Seems some of them aren't even getting a day of refresher courses.

'Take your rifle, and run at the enemy blyat, when you die, number two in line picks up the rifle.'

Makes the film Stalingrad seem realistic.

Edited September 23, 2022 by magnkarl

[Demitri_C]

5 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

The trickle of raw recruits into Ukraine has already started. Seems some of them aren't even getting a day of refresher courses.

'Take your rifle, and run at the enemy blyat.'

Makes the film Stalingrad seem realistic.

I can see alot of them either surrendering or defecting with ukraine. Its going to be lambs to the slaughter for them

[It's Your Round]

11 hours ago, sidcow said:

A lad I know joined The Army. Thought it was something he really wanted to do. Went through the proper British Army training, the full monty. 

That was damn good training too.

Edited September 23, 2022 by It's Your Round

[It's Your Round]

8 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

The trickle of raw recruits into Ukraine has already started. Seems some of them aren't even getting a day of refresher courses.

'Take your rifle, and run at the enemy blyat, when you die, number two in line picks up the rifle.'

Makes the film Stalingrad seem realistic.

Ukraine are going to need somewhere to store all of these deserters, it becomes a problem when you’ve got to behave responsibly towards them. 

[magnkarl]

8 minutes ago, It's Your Round said:

Ukraine are going to need somewhere to store all of these deserters, it becomes a problem when you’ve got to behave responsibly towards them. 

Apparently the Freedom of Russia legion will take anyone who wishes to end Putin, I'm sure there are plenty. But then there are issues with moles, agents etc inserting themselves into that legion and causing havoc. It's a delicate issue.

Ukraine might just try to avoid capturing soldiers, alternatively they'll open new facilities and give the Russians a good life so they can call their brainwashed society and ask how it's going behind the iron curtain.

The Freedom of Russia legion already has ads running round the clock on Telegram.. The Belarussian counterpart is now up to three batallions.. Either way, these guys will not be fun to deal with for Lukashenko when the war is over.

 

Edited September 23, 2022 by magnkarl

[It's Your Round]

Nice put-down from Ukraine’s foreign minister after Lavrov bailed out ar the UN Security Council meeting. 

https://www.c-span.org/video/?c5032349/ukrainian-foreign-minister-mocks-russias-sergei-lavrov-leaving-un-security-council-meeting

Quote

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba says Russian diplomats are "directly complicit in the war crimes being committed in Ukraine, saying "their lies incite these crimes." He also mocks his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov for leaving immediately after delivering his own speech to the Security Council. "I notice that Russian diplomats flee almost as quickly as Russian soldiers," Kuleba, says. 

 

Edited September 23, 2022 by It's Your Round

[magnkarl]

10 minutes ago, It's Your Round said:

Nice put-down from Ukraine’s foreign minister after Lavrov bailed out ar the UN Security Council meeting. 

https://www.c-span.org/video/?c5032349/ukrainian-foreign-minister-mocks-russias-sergei-lavrov-leaving-un-security-council-meeting

 

To think that I've been in a room with Lavrov listening to a lecture on northern cooperation, the man has stooped so low that it's beyond me. He was once an extremely intelligent, quite liberal politician. Corrupted.

[Panto_Villan]

2 hours ago, blandy said:

An analogy would be UK politics and Brexit. Just because they embarked on a monumentally stupid idea, doesn’t mean that the leader responsible gets replaced with someone who is against the thing. Instead they/we get someone wanting to do it, but even more so.

I think it’s worth pointing out that even if an ultra-nationalist takes over, they’ll know they’re not going to win the war in Ukraine. Their only chance of staying in power is to withdraw from Ukraine, blame Putin for everything and try and get a fresh start re: sanctions etc - if they keep fighting they’ll get blamed for the inevitable defeat coming their way.

Doesn’t mean they won’t start bullying say Georgia 5 years down the line, but I think if there’s a coup the war in Ukraine is effectively over.

[blandy]

1 hour ago, Panto_Villan said:

even if an ultra-nationalist takes over, they’ll know they’re not going to win the war in Ukraine

I disagree. From their perspective they believe they can win the war.

[CVByrne]

We need to keep arming Ukraine to the teeth. The sanctions will slowly cripple Russia as will the war eat up their weapons, vehicles, supplies etc..

Ukraine don't need to manufacture anything. We'll supply them with the most advanced weapons in the world. Their troops are highly motivated. 

I still think there needs to be consideration on a ceasefire and if Ukraine would consider losing Crimea in any peace deal. 

[Genie]

11 minutes ago, CVByrne said:

We need to keep arming Ukraine to the teeth. The sanctions will slowly cripple Russia as will the war eat up their weapons, vehicles, supplies etc..

Ukraine don't need to manufacture anything. We'll supply them with the most advanced weapons in the world. Their troops are highly motivated. 

I still think there needs to be consideration on a ceasefire and if Ukraine would consider losing Crimea in any peace deal. 

The problem is trust. Ceasefire would give Putin a very convenient exit but he can’t be trusted not to come back again later, better prepared.

A ceasefire would have to include Putin being locked up or pushed out a window. 

[magnkarl]

17 minutes ago, CVByrne said:

We need to keep arming Ukraine to the teeth. The sanctions will slowly cripple Russia as will the war eat up their weapons, vehicles, supplies etc..

Ukraine don't need to manufacture anything. We'll supply them with the most advanced weapons in the world. Their troops are highly motivated. 

I still think there needs to be consideration on a ceasefire and if Ukraine would consider losing Crimea in any peace deal. 

Why should Ukraine give away Crimea in a peace deal when they're winning the war?

It'd be like if Norway invaded Yorkshire due to old ownership, us beating them back and people arguing that we should give them Yorkshire as a part of negotiations. Norway would essentially gain from that. Why should Russia be awarded for breaking every rule international society is built on?

[HKP90]

I think they will hold this referendum, declare the Donbass as part of Russia and then treble down on nuclear threats as they are 'being attacked'. 

[Genie]

Any negotiation would need to be secretly done with the level beneath Putin and have to include them losing him somewhere.

For Ukraine, end the war, go back to 2014 borders.

For Russia, you get rid of Putin, no more casualties, no more humiliation, supply cheap energy (or lots of free cash) to Ukraine to enable them to rebuild. Longer term they can be considered to be reintroduced into the world.

That would be the only terms I’d consider from Ukraines point of view.

[magnkarl]

9 minutes ago, Genie said:

Any negotiation would need to be secretly done with the level beneath Putin and have to include them losing him somewhere.

For Ukraine, end the war, go back to 2014 borders.

For Russia, you get rid of Putin, no more casualties, no more humiliation, supply cheap energy (or lots of free cash) to Ukraine to enable them to rebuild. Longer term they can be considered to be reintroduced into the world.

That would be the only terms I’d consider from Ukraines point of view.

Again, why should Ukraine agree to ceding two of their most lucrative regions because Russia has invaded them? Donbas is full of gas and oil reserves, Crimea has sea borders full of the same. There's a reason why Putin wants them.

Edited September 23, 2022 by magnkarl

[Genie]

3 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

Again, why should Ukraine agree to ceding two of their most lucrative regions because Russia has invaded them? Donbas is full of gas and oil reserves, Crimea has sea borders full of the same. There's a reason why Putin wants them.

That’s why I said go back to 2014 borders  

Ukraine gets it country back.

Russia’s inevitable humiliation is reduced as they pin it all on the recently dead Putin.

Russia ‘22 supports the rebuilding of Ukraine in exchange for gradual reintroduction into the world.

[magnkarl]

19 minutes ago, Genie said:

That’s why I said go back to 2014 borders  

Ukraine gets it country back.

Russia’s inevitable humiliation is reduced as they pin it all on the recently dead Putin.

Russia ‘22 supports the rebuilding of Ukraine in exchange for gradual reintroduction into the world.

Ah, my bad!  

[pas5898]

3 hours ago, magnkarl said:

To think that I've been in a room with Lavrov listening to a lecture on northern cooperation, the man has stooped so low that it's beyond me. He was once an extremely intelligent, quite liberal politician. Corrupted.

Corrupted or in fear for his life?