Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[Mandy Lifeboats]

33 minutes ago, Enda said:

 

This is much closer to WWIII than I think a few of you are ready to acknowledge.

 

I really don't think so.   Putin is trying to create fear in the Western population.   Don't fall for it.        

China and India aren't stupid.  Over the past few weeks they have distanced themselves from Putin's aims.   Both very publicly called for the end of hostilities.  

Putin threatened  Finland with serious repercussions if they joined NATO.   They did. 

Then Putin said that Finland is no threat to Russia.   But there will be serious repercussions if the allow NATO to permanently base troops there.   

That's also changed to serious repercussions if the allow NATO to base nukes there.   

Putin is a man repeatedly drawing lines in the sand.   

[PieFacE]

37 minutes ago, Talldarkandransome said:

Hasn't he threatened to use Nukes again, or was it just the news bringing it back to the top story after that death we had. 

I'm think his own might take him out soon

As far as I can tell it's largely just a giant bluff to try and prevent the West from providing Ukraine with weapons, intelligence and general support. And it also won't work. If anything it will have the opposite effect.

Putin has just played this whole thing badly, NATO is probably the most unified and the strongest it's been for a long long time. It feels to me (as someone who knows very little about the whole thing) that everything Putin wanted to achieve has completely backfired and the opposite outcomes have generally happened. It seems he and Russia grossly miscalculated the situation. 

But then, as stated, I know very little about the whole thing compared to others so could be very wrong. 

[KentVillan]

33 minutes ago, tonyh29 said:

We've had threads on WWIII about to start as long as there has been a VT   ... I won't say it isn't going to happen , but I'd put it at a 1% chance  , and that's a lower risk of death than going bareback in the Eden Club, Bangkok 

That's fair, but this is almost certainly the highest the risk of WWIII has been since the fall of the Berlin Wall. Whether you put that at 1% or 10%, it's still an uncomfortably realistic possibility.

[Genie]

12 minutes ago, PieFacE said:

Saw this. Thought it was some interesting reading. Can't verify how true it is tho. Life comes at you fast tho.



 

Sums up what I wrote above. Russian people were either turning a blind eye or supporting the atrocities in Ukraine until now. As soon as they are at personal risk they find their voices and morals.

[PussEKatt]

11 minutes ago, KentVillan said:

That's fair, but this is almost certainly the highest the risk of WWIII has been since the fall of the Berlin Wall. Whether you put that at 1% or 10%, it's still an uncomfortably realistic possibility.

IMHO,the highest risk of WWIII was the "Cuban missle situation",but I really do think that most Russians in powerful situations would realise that if the nukes start its virtually all over, especially as they will be firing them at their neighbour

[Mandy Lifeboats]

This made me laugh.  

Iran provided Russia with suicide drones.  

Israel has now sent its "Anti-Drone" system to Poland for evaluation.    

Poland has given it to Ukraine.   

Ukraine will now "evaluate" it for Poland against the Iranian drones. 

Israel really don't miss a trick.   

 

[KentVillan]

3 minutes ago, PussEKatt said:

IMHO,the highest risk of WWIII was the "Cuban missle situation",but I really do think that most Russians in powerful situations would realise that if the nukes start its virtually all over, especially as they will be firing them at their neighbour

I said since the fall of the Berlin Wall...

[PussEKatt]

Just now, KentVillan said:

I said since the fall of the Berlin Wall...

Sorry,getting my dates mixed up again

[Mandy Lifeboats]

1 minute ago, PussEKatt said:

IMHO,the highest risk of WWIII was the "Cuban missle situation",but I really do think that most Russians in powerful situations would realise that if the nukes start its virtually all over, especially as they will be firing them at their neighbour

Interestingly the closest we ever got to nuclear Armageddon was 26 September 1983 and its well documented.  

The USSR detected 5 missiles launched by the US.  The commander responsible had orders to retaliate with a similar response.  But he decided to wait until the missiles hit and were reported by other sources.  They never were.   

He was never credited with saving the world because that would have meant the USSR  admitting that their brand new early warning system was rubbish. 

 

[ml1dch]

2 minutes ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

Interestingly the closest we ever got to nuclear Armageddon was 26 September 1983 and its well documented.  

The second best Stan Petrov. 

[Mandy Lifeboats]

9 minutes ago, ml1dch said:

The second best Stan Petrov. 

That's the guy. 

[LondonLax]

There is a bit of speculation around that the talk of 300,000 conscripts was a PR number and the actual number is much higher. It might simply be that they are expecting to need to tap many more than 300,000 to get 300,000 who actually turn up or maybe they are looking to mobilise a bigger number than they have let on. 

 

 

 

[Genie]

5 minutes ago, LondonLax said:

There is a bit of speculation around that the talk of 300,000 conscripts was a PR number and the actual number is much higher. It might simply be that they are expecting to need to tap many more than 300,000 to get 300,000 who actually turn up or maybe they are looking to mobilise a bigger number than they have let on. 

 

 

 

I’m not sure a sample size of one village getting 20 draft notices out of a population of 450 is enough to extrapolate across the entire country.

Because of the nature of this war, and a very large population now all of a sudden not agreeing with it they are going to get a huge amount of people using every lever they can to get out of it.

They’ll probably need several times 300k to get 300k on the battlefield.

[LondonLax]

5 minutes ago, Genie said:

I’m not sure a sample size of one village getting 20 draft notices out of a population of 450 is enough to extrapolate across the entire country.

Because of the nature of this war, and a very large population now all of a sudden not agreeing with it they are going to get a huge amount of people using every lever they can to get out of it.

They’ll probably need several times 300k to get 300k on the battlefield.

No, that one comment in isolation would not be enough to go on. Collections of isolated villages would also be tapped hardest whilst Muscovites would be the last (unless they are caught protesting ) but I've seen a few comments on the idea of a much larger rollcall than 300k, like this one as well:

 

Could just be disinformation to try and sow panic in Russia or could be something.

 

Edited September 22, 2022 by LondonLax

[Genie]

1 minute ago, LondonLax said:

No, that one comment in isolation would not be enough to go on. Collections of isolated villages would also be tapped hardest whilst Muscovites would be the last (unless they are caught protesting ) but I've seen a few comments on the idea of a much larger rollcall than 300k, like this one as well:

 

Could just be disinformation to try and sow panic in Russia or could be something.

 

I agree, but there must be a fairly big failure rate (like everything to do with the Russian army).

Illness, injury, fitness, occupation, mental health, single parents, and of course vanished will mean many of those tapped on the shoulder won’t arrive on the battlefield.

I could imagine they’d need more than 1m draft notices to go out to get close to 300,000 worthwhile soldiers.

[BleedClaretAndBlue]

Jordan Peterson’s account is one worth listening to

 

[avfc1982am]

If anyone knows I would be interested to find out how many troops Ukraine currently have deployed and potentially how many more could they call up? I'm struggling to find any info on the current status or these figures. I think the figures deployed prior to the last counter offensive were around 125k in the field but cannot see anything credible or up to date. Thanks in advance. 

[tonyh29]

28 minutes ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

Interestingly the closest we ever got to nuclear Armageddon was 26 September 1983 and its well documented.  

The USSR detected 5 missiles launched by the US.  The commander responsible had orders to retaliate with a similar response.  But he decided to wait until the missiles hit and were reported by other sources.  They never were.   

He was never credited with saving the world because that would have meant the USSR  admitting that their brand new early warning system was rubbish. 

 

there was another close call in November 83 as well , soviets had planes with nukes on the runway ready to go  

last one was possibly  1995 that resulted in Yeltsin activating the old Cheget.. turned out to be a rocket being launched , nations had been given warning but the memo never made it down the chain in Russia 

[avfc1982am]

Just now, BleedClaretAndBlue said:

Jordan Peterson’s account is one worth listening to

 

I watched this earlier. I like Peterson but don't entirely agree with him on this. A victory for Ukraine isn't what the rest of the world may necessarily see as a win or Russia concede as a loss. However, the thing to take from this is Russia are already losing.... losing fathers, sons and credibility as a nation. Sending them back decades as far as commerce/economy etc is most definitely a loss. 

[NoelVilla]

That guy really grinds my gears. "Expert" on every subject.