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Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine


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My totally uneducated guess for the next pushes are as follows:

a) Ukraine pushes down towards Melitopol, essentially rendering Russia's control over Zaporizjzja negligible. This will also further cut supply lines going back and forth from Russia\Crimea and probably cause a rout back to Crimea.

b) Hard push up North in Luhansk towards the Russian border, threatening the rail line going from Belgorod through Valuyki to Luhansk which supplies the pushes towards Bakhmut. It'll make a referendum in Luhansk impossible.

c) Collapse the Kherson front line after intense shelling of the few remaining strong points of Russia, following the Inhulets river down to the Dnepr and creating multiple pockets like in Kharkiv oblast.

It's going to be an interesting couple of weeks. The new APC's and IFV's received from France, Germany, Spain, UK, Sweden and Turkey will be instrumental in the kind of fast paced attack we saw in Kharkiv, with our very own Mastiff, Wolfhound and Husky leading the charge.

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14 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

My totally uneducated guess for the next pushes are as follows:

a) Ukraine pushes down towards Melitopol, essentially rendering Russia's control over Zaporizjzja negligible. This will also further cut supply lines going back and forth from Russia\Crimea and probably cause a rout back to Crimea.

b) Hard push up North in Luhansk towards the Russian border, threatening the rail line going from Belgorod through Valuyki to Luhansk which supplies the pushes towards Bakhmut. It'll make a referendum in Luhansk impossible.

c) Collapse the Kherson front line after intense shelling of the few remaining strong points of Russia, following the Inhulets river down to the Dnepr and creating multiple pockets like in Kharkiv oblast.

It's going to be an interesting couple of weeks. The new APC's and IFV's received from France, Germany, Spain, UK, Sweden and Turkey will be instrumental in the kind of fast paced attack we saw in Kharkiv, with our very own Mastiff, Wolfhound and Husky leading the charge.

from what I can guess, there aren't going to be weeks, once the result of the referendums come in; Ukraine won't be allowed to touch those areas with anything borrowed from Nato. There will probably be some horrible stalemate until Russia has gathered enough information and experience of Natos cutting edge murder-death-kill-mame gizmos.

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9 minutes ago, BleedClaretAndBlue said:

Stay clear of windows Ryabkov

The fear is real it seems.

Once Ukraine push on into what Putin thinks are Russian areas then he will be gone.  They won't risk it.

The line about the US is quite interesting,  Russia only imports % billion a year from the US but its what they import,  this is all the good tech they need. (Approx. exported to US per year is 16 Billion) They can't survive at their current technological level without it Medical / Chips / Oil / Gas(Does it get cold in the north of Russia?)  are all finished medium term without a supply of groovy new tech, downgrade it all, yes.  Keep it current up to date,  no chance.

A stupid example but,  you can still buy a Lada,  brand new in Russia.  The tech for the Safety modules (Eg ABS) does not exist in Russia,  nowhere near.  So new Lada,  no ABS(How dangerous,  the car that needs it most,  shame) .  If this is magnified across all sectors they are in trouble. 

Also,  It seems they don' t have the right bearings either so train rolling stock is decreasing every day,  these all effect the population eventually.

I am not sure how their Russian flights are going (Aeroflot), hopefully it starts reducing.  

 

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8 minutes ago, bielesibub said:

from what I can guess, there aren't going to be weeks, once the result of the referendums come in; Ukraine won't be allowed to touch those areas with anything borrowed from Nato. There will probably be some horrible stalemate until Russia has gathered enough information and experience of Natos cutting edge murder-death-kill-mame gizmos.

The referendums will be totally ignored as they aren't valid. They will have absolutely no bearing on anything apart from Russian Propaganda

Its quite clearly defined by Internationally accepted convention what does and does not constitute Ukraine and Russia. Crimea is Ukraine despite what any referendum says

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5 minutes ago, Amsterdam_Neil_D said:

The fear is real it seems.

Once Ukraine push on into what Putin thinks are Russian areas then he will be gone.  They won't risk it.

The line about the US is quite interesting,  Russia only imports % billion a year from the US but its what they import,  this is all the good tech they need. (Approx. exported to US per year is 16 Billion) They can't survive at their current technological level without it Medical / Chips / Oil / Gas(Does it get cold in the north of Russia?)  are all finished medium term without a supply of groovy new tech, downgrade it all, yes.  Keep it current up to date,  no chance.

A stupid example but,  you can still buy a Lada,  brand new in Russia.  The tech for the Safety modules (Eg ABS) does not exist in Russia,  nowhere near.  So new Lada,  no ABS(How dangerous,  the car that needs it most,  shame) .  If this is magnified across all sectors they are in trouble. 

Also,  It seems they don' t have the right bearings either so train rolling stock is decreasing every day,  these all effect the population eventually.

I am not sure how their Russian flights are going (Aeroflot), hopefully it starts reducing.  

 

As an aside, Lada's orer books were doing fantastically well before mobilisation. All the dead soldiers families were buying them with the compo money.

Yuri, go to Ukraine, we need a car!

But Moma

DOn't you Moma me, Ukraine and see if you can lose a leg or something

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1 minute ago, bickster said:

The referendums will be totally ignored as they aren't valid. They will have absolutely no bearing on anything apart from Russian Propaganda

yeah ignored by the West, championed as an excuse by Putin to pull more Russians on his side and an excuse for him to roll out the big toys.

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1 minute ago, bickster said:

The referendums will be totally ignored as they aren't valid. They will have absolutely no bearing on anything apart from Russian Propaganda

Would be funny if they lost in referendums due to an unfortunate comical mis-communication between senior Russian soldiers, that is very much in the style of "Once foot in the grave"  

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Just now, bielesibub said:

yeah ignored by the West, championed as an excuse by Putin to pull more Russians on his side and an excuse for him to roll out the big toys.

Stop it. He hasn't got any big toys and this will not go nuclear.

There are no new wonder weapons

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