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Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine


maqroll

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1 minute ago, bickster said:

Last I read, quite a few days ago was that it was mainly defended by die hard LPR troops who were far better motivated than their Russian counterparts.

It may well be but they're currently being flanked both sides around Lyman so it's possibly only a matter of time before they're cut off.  

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I can understand that the average joe in Moscow or St. Petersburg - or Vladivostok, come to that - might broadly approve of a big-talking 'strong leader' like Putin. It's always been the Russian mindset. But I've a hunch that their loyalty might be rather tested when it comes to their relatives being forcibly rounded up to go and get blown to bits over a patch of land in Ukraine. This is hardly the Great Patriotic War of 1941. 

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5 minutes ago, mjmooney said:

I can understand that the average joe in Moscow or St. Petersburg - or Vladivostok, come to that - might broadly approve of a big-talking 'strong leader' like Putin. It's always been the Russian mindset. But I've a hunch that their loyalty might be rather tested when it comes to their relatives being forcibly rounded up to go and get blown to bits over a patch of land in Ukraine. This is hardly the Great Patriotic War of 1941. 

People in Russia often talk about Muscovites the same way people in the UK talk about London voters, or more specifically 'Urban Elites', 'The Islington Set', 'Inner City Lefties', 'Champaign Socialist' etc.

Putin's strong man appeal seems to be largest in the countryside with Russia's answer to the Midwest Trump voter or regional Brexit voter type.  

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12 minutes ago, LondonLax said:

People in Russia often talk about Muscovites the same way people in the UK talk about London voters, or more specifically 'Urban Elites', 'The Islington Set', 'Inner City Lefties', 'Champaign Socialist' etc.

Putin's strong man appeal seems to be largest in the countryside with Russia's answer to the Midwest Trump voter or regional Brexit voter type.  

Same applies to St Petersburg and I'm not sure the mobilisation is being persued in the same manner in the two big powerbase cities

There is a very strong element of racism in this mobilisation. In Crimea for example they are said to be actively hunting for all the male Crimean Tartars (20% of Crimea's population and broadly anti-Russian)

The large cities in the west of Russia generally has never given two shits for what happens to the ethnically very different (Non-slavic) populations East of the Urals and that is where all conscription drives are always concentrated

It's a deliberate policy and has been for a very long time

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18 minutes ago, bickster said:

And as if by magic a Pro-Ukrainian annexation and mobilisation rally in Moscow yesterday

zbrh2zbrusp91.jpg?width=960&crop=smart&a

There will be no popular uprising any time soon

I can just imagine how they got people to go to this, just invite them from the street!

'Do you want to be mobilised? No? Then go to this pro-mobilisation rally or the letter's in the post'

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8 minutes ago, djdabush said:

I can just imagine how they got people to go to this, just invite them from the street!

'Do you want to be mobilised? No? Then go to this pro-mobilisation rally or the letter's in the post'

I’m sceptical too. It looks like a proper arranged event with stage etc. All they need to do is offer free beer/vodka/food and have the cameras ready. 

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4 minutes ago, Genie said:

I’m sceptical too. It looks like a proper arranged event with stage etc. All they need to do is offer free beer/vodka/food and have the cameras ready. 

None of that really matters, it's still a propaganda victory and will help supress any potential revolt. How it was achieved isn't really that relevant

It was never claimed to be spontaneous

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38 minutes ago, bickster said:

And as if by magic a Pro-Ukrainian annexation and mobilisation rally in Moscow yesterday

zbrh2zbrusp91.jpg?width=960&crop=smart&a

There will be no popular uprising any time soon

There is still a big machine behind Putin and his cronies. If called upon they and all their dependents will turn up to play their part like performing seals. 

Government is a big beast, wouldn't take much to cobble together a few thousand connected people. 

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7 minutes ago, sidcow said:

There is still a big machine behind Putin and his cronies. If called upon they and all their dependents will turn up to play their part like performing seals. 

Government is a big beast, wouldn't take much to cobble together a few thousand connected people. 

Yeah plus I imagine there is still a huge number of people that support the SMO. It’s not too much of a stretch to think he’s still got a lot of support in the country. Especially given the Russian mentality, the propaganda and the fear of what becomes of opposers. 

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13 minutes ago, bickster said:

None of that really matters, it's still a propaganda victory and will help supress any potential revolt. How it was achieved isn't really that relevant

It was never claimed to be spontaneous

I don’t think it proves that an uprising is unlikely.

It is interesting that the protests are against mobilisation, and not the war. Are they being a big clever here as it not being a crime to protest against mobilisation, but for the war it would be?

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This pro rally was all over the news yesterday. Most people were bused in and would not talk to any media about the event. It was most definitely staged, but as Bickster says, it doesn't matter. All Putin want's is for these bs rallies to look good for the propaganda machine and all those disconnected from anything outside Russia. 

 

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1 minute ago, Genie said:

I don’t think it proves that an uprising is unlikely.

It is interesting that the protests are against mobilisation, and not the war. Are they being a big clever here as it not being a crime to protest against mobilisation, but for the war it would be?

A population of over a 150m isn't going to be swayed by minor demonstrations though. You'll know when it starts to get serious when the people fighting with the Police are blokes and not women. At the moment there are more onlookers, looking at the protesters like a circus show or street performance. These are nowhere near big enough to have any real impact on Putin, which is sad but true. 

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This is significant

Quote

Russia’s allies China and India call for negotiations to end Ukraine war

Moscow isolated at United Nations assembly, with no major country siding with it

China and India have called for a negotiated end to the Ukraine war, stopping short of robust support for traditional ally Russia.

After a week of pressure at the United Nations general assembly, Russia’s foreign minister took the general assembly rostrum to deliver a fiery rebuke to western nations for what he termed a “grotesque” campaign against Russians.

But no major nation has rallied behind Russia, including China, which just days before the February invasion of Ukraine had vowed an “unbreakable” bond with President Vladimir Putin.

China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, called on Russia and Ukraine to “keep the crisis from spilling over” and from affecting developing countries.

Guardian

It's the wrong response but it's far from supporting Russia or saying nothing, which is where they've been before and as Putin flew to see Xi only a short while back, you have to imagine the meeting didn't go well

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To give credit to China, their standpoint on this has been consistent from the start.  
 

They say Russia has legitimate concerns about NATO expansion but that is not justification to invade Ukraine.   
 

China is against NATO.  They are definitely not allies of Russia.  
 

 

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17 minutes ago, sidcow said:

Automatic gun fire and literally no one reacts or scatters? 

I think Dagestan locals are a little more used to gunfire than those further North. And far less likely to take Moscows bullshit before kicking off.

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21 minutes ago, sidcow said:

Automatic gun fire and literally no one reacts or scatters? 

All part of the training process for where they are heading.

That isn't the bit that is interesting to me though, there are other videos of this out there. The more intersting thing is how few actual Rosgvardiya are there, they are totally outnumbered and that is significant. Putin has already thrown a lot of Rosgvardiya into the meat grinder, which considering they are Russia's internal military / police is significant. This would definititely be a Rosgvardiya role. You can see how few of them are circled by the group of women in the other video posted above too

They might still have the numbers of Rosgvardiya in the major western cities but they are spread very thin in the eastern republics

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