Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[magnkarl]

43 minutes ago, avfc1982am said:

 

Dagestan, Chechnya, Karelia, Yakutsk and Abkhasia/Osetia were always on the top of my list when it comes to open rebellion.

Yekaterinburg is another city which is tethering on revolt as Putin jailed their democratically elected very popular Governor earlier this year for uttering the word war.

[avfc1982am]

1 minute ago, magnkarl said:

Dagestan, Chechnya, Karelia, Yakutsk and Abkhasia/Osetia were always on the top of my list when it comes to open rebellion.

Yekaterinburg is another city which is tethering on revolt as Putin jailed their democratically elected very popular Governor earlier this year for uttering the word war.

It's always the poorest areas treated the worst that have the most potential for uprising. 

I'm sure I have also read somewhere that the real figure for mobilisation is 1.2m and not 300,000 as, first announced. If that is right, then removal of that many citizens unwillingly from communities is undoubtably going to create resentment. 

[Mr_Dogg]

The way I see it now is Russia will declare victory for the pro Russia referendums, and with China and India calling for negotiation, Russia will agree but Ukraine will not want to cede any land.

Russia can then claim Ukraine are prolonging the war.

What Ukraine need now is to make some decisive military victories, making the referendums redundant. How realistic or far off that is I don't know.

 

[bickster]

1 minute ago, Mr_Dogg said:

What Ukraine need now is to make some decisive military victories, making the referendums redundant. How realistic or far off that is I don't know

This is only a personal opinion and not based on anything other than gut feeling but I suspect  that now the Oskil River has had a number of stable bridgeheads established by Ukraine and they can finish mopping up Lyman, there may be another significant advance soon on the North Eastern Front

There is also talk that in the Kherson region, Generals are of the opinion that they should withdraw as the degradation of their position is so severe that their doctrine dictates withdrawal but Putin is refusing to allow it

I think it's also significant that Ukraine managed to down at least 4 aircraft yesterday (talk of a 5th a helicopter but it hasn't been officially claimed), I think that shows the anti Aircraft troops have moved significantly forwards behind the lines which may also indicate that another push is possibly on the cards soon

[avfc1982am]

7 minutes ago, bickster said:

This is only a personal opinion and not based on anything other than gut feeling but I suspect  that now the Oskil River has had a number of stable bridgeheads established by Ukraine and they can finish mopping up Lyman, there may be another significant advance soon on the North Eastern Front

There is also talk that in the Kherson region, Generals are of the opinion that they should withdraw as the degradation of their position is so severe that their doctrine dictates withdrawal but Putin is refusing to allow it

I think it's also significant that Ukraine managed to down at least 4 aircraft yesterday (talk of a 5th a helicopter but it hasn't been officially claimed), I think that shows the anti Aircraft troops have moved significantly forwards behind the lines which may also indicate that another push is possibly on the cards soon

I think you are right. Apparently, there is currently operation silence in the South around Kherson, which probably explains the lack of real change to the maps that are out there. Looking at the info I think the Ukrainians are already creating a corridor North of Lyman which would allow them to push over a broader front towards Lysychansk and Severodonetsk. This would give them so many more options for advancement and encirclement of Russian troops. 

I also think we will see a push serious towards Melitopol via Zaporizhzhia at some point with a push to isolate Russian troops in the South. I think this will only happen when Kherson is literally under siege though. 

[bickster]

8 minutes ago, avfc1982am said:

I think you are right. Apparently, there is currently operation silence in the South around Kherson, which probably explains the lack of real change to the maps that are out there. Looking at the info I think the Ukrainians are already creating a corridor North of Lyman which would allow them to push over a broader front towards Lysychansk and Severodonetsk. This would give them so many more options for advancement and encirclement of Russian troops. 

I also think we will see a push serious towards Melitopol via Zaporizhzhia at some point with a push to isolate Russian troops in the South. I think this will only happen when Kherson is literally under siege though. 

Where they reckon Russia's next two lines of defence will be after the current frontline collapses on the Kharkiv / Luhansk front

[mjmooney]

This is like watching 1945 in reverse. 

[desensitized43]

The big takeaway from all this is that the Russians will be in no position to do anything for years once all this is done. That and NATO have nothing at all to fear from Russia on the battlefield. The Russians now know that they would need to go nuclear in the event of any future conflict. It’s their only option. We all know where we stand now.

[bickster]

7 minutes ago, desensitized43 said:

The big takeaway from all this is that the Russians will be in no position to do anything for years once all this is done. That and NATO have nothing at all to fear from Russia on the battlefield. The Russians now know that they would need to go nuclear in the event of any future conflict. It’s their only option. We all know where we stand now.

Just wait until it fractures and large chunks of the east are subsumed by the PRC. Russia west of the Urals will become the new NATO / PRC buffer zone

[avfc1982am]

7 minutes ago, desensitized43 said:

The big takeaway from all this is that the Russians will be in no position to do anything for years once all this is done. That and NATO have nothing at all to fear from Russia on the battlefield. The Russians now know that they would need to go nuclear in the event of any future conflict. It’s their only option. We all know where we stand now.

Partially true imo. The first bit definitely. I'm not in agreeance with the second bit though. NATO didn't fear Russia and never have. It's been well known for years that Russia's Military, although vast in arms and manpower is second rate at best. I think Russia have also only ever had a nuclear threat against the west, hence the nonsense aggressive nature of the propaganda arm of government. They've always talked utter bollox.. 

[blandy]

2 hours ago, mjmooney said:

This is like watching 1945 in reverse. 

5491?  Not seen that one. Any good?

[magnkarl]

3 hours ago, bickster said:

Where they reckon Russia's next two lines of defence will be after the current frontline collapses on the Kharkiv / Luhansk front

Agreed. I suspect a push towards Melitopol to ease pressure on Bakhmut, then a double whammy straight to Luhansk city and Kherson. It’ll make the referendums totally useless.

[Demitri_C]

6 hours ago, bickster said:

This is significant

Guardian

It's the wrong response but it's far from supporting Russia or saying nothing, which is where they've been before and as Putin flew to see Xi only a short while back, you have to imagine the meeting didn't go well

I think this is very significant.  If your biggest ally is not backing your publicly your going alone. Hopefully the US will appreciate this and try improve relations. As last thing we all need is further US-china tension.

Putin is practically alone in this war. Why he is still going on no one knows. Even his own people the russians are goibg ti turn on him throwing them into war as lambs to the slaughter.

Russia couldnt go to war with the US for example they would get obliterated after all the losses they have suffered

[Demitri_C]

I do wonder if putin will get on the phone to his other psychotic mate from belarus and ask for troops to help them out

[magnkarl]

4 minutes ago, Demitri_C said:

I do wonder if putin will get on the phone to his other psychotic mate from belarus and ask for troops to help them out

Ukraine has more policemen than Belarus has troops. Plus Lukashenko’s generals aren’t too keen.

[HAL]

11 minutes ago, Demitri_C said:

I do wonder if putin will get on the phone to his other psychotic mate from belarus and ask for troops to help them out

Think even he was trying to distance himself from Putin

[avfc1982am]

Belarus won't get involved now. Any incursion from them sees regime change and the fat wood chopper isn't going to gamble his own seat. The other factor to consider is the theatre has moved. Russia won't go back into the North when they are literally holding on to what they have with their finger tips. Russia need to reinforce what they have not stretch themselves further, because just as before they will get pushed back again.  

[mjmooney]

On 12/02/2022 at 19:07, Panto_Villan said:

I think the current military think-tank prediction is they’re most likely to want to quickly encircle Kiev and force regime change.

Nobody knows for sure, obviously, but it’s certainly plausible (apparently you can drive a tank from the Belarus border to Kiev in two hours).

That aged well. 

[bickster]

58 minutes ago, Demitri_C said:

I do wonder if putin will get on the phone to his other psychotic mate from belarus and ask for troops to help them out

Ukraine already has three full batallions of troops from Belarus (the third was commissioned only this week) who have already vowed to liberate their home country once this is over. It's likely they'd be joined by the two Russian batallions already fighting for Ukraine also. That's five batallions of battle hardened troops who've all seen far more action than any Belarus soldier has ever seen and Belarus' army isn't that big. It numbers around 60k with about 5k actually deployed  (the rest being mainly logistics and support staff)

There is already significant anti-government partisan activity in Belarus, which is not only attempting to overthrow the government but also assisting Ukraine.

Once this is over Belarus will not be in Russia's sphere of influence and Lukashenko will be consigned to the history books

The Belarus Army Generals are deliberately not joining the war and have no intention of ever doing so.

[Demitri_C]

Putin really is billy no mates then isnt he if he cant even rely on his mate from belarus