The now-enacted will of (some of) the people

[cyrusr]

45 minutes ago, bickster said:

That actually leaves little else to talk about but the typeface 

What typeface is it now?

Personally think it should be wingdings, will make about as much sense. 

[HanoiVillan]

2 hours ago, snowychap said:

Having been critical of May a few days ago because of her apparent reluctance to reach out to the Labour front bench, I have to question what on earth Corbnyn is playing at with the 'rule out no deal or we won't even talk to you' stance.

Well, I know what he's playing at - he's trying to give himself a reason to say that it's her fault that he wasn't able to even consider sitting down with her but it does rather confirm that getting out of this mess is of much less importance to him than trying to find a way to another election and it also suggests that he wouldn't be the best person to head up any sort of negotiation on behalf of the UK.

They're both rubbish. At this moment, I'm not sure who is more so.

I don't think your second paragraph is right. The election option is off the table; there remains some small chance that May will decide a snap election is in *her* best interests, but Corbyn has no way to force one. 

The logic is more like this:

In the end, this is the only way 'out of this mess'; there is no internal Tory way to resolve the situation, or at least they have given no indication of one, and Labour shouldn't assume one. To change the default No Deal outcome, some Tories (either in the government or on the backbenches) have to do something very different to that which they are currently doing. To the extent that this remains an internal debate within the Conservative party, voting down the only available deal but maintaining confidence in the government and providing no alternative path, there is no way out. Corbyn is demanding (and he has now been followed by at least Sturgeon) that May makes some real commitment to negotiating with the opposition, rather than her own backbenches. Of course, she has been unwilling to do that, but that's the impasse, not Corbyn's refusal to talk. I would say that your subsequently-quoted tweet proved him right, in that the government offered opposition parties absolutely no ground on any issue whatsoever:

So the only reason to be annoyed at Corbyn here is about the optics or the strategy; actually going to the meeting would have changed nothing at all. 

[desensitized43]

So to summarise the government position "we're willing to compromise, just not on the stuff that's important to us"...great

[snowychap]

13 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

I don't think your second paragraph is right. The election option is off the table; there remains some small chance that May will decide a snap election is in *her* best interests, but Corbyn has no way to force one. 

The logic is more like this:

In the end, this is the only way 'out of this mess'; there is no internal Tory way to resolve the situation, or at least they have given no indication of one, and Labour shouldn't assume one. To change the default No Deal outcome, some Tories (either in the government or on the backbenches) have to do something very different to that which they are currently doing. To the extent that this remains an internal debate within the Conservative party, voting down the only available deal but maintaining confidence in the government and providing no alternative path, there is no way out. Corbyn is demanding (and he has now been followed by at least Sturgeon) that May makes some real commitment to negotiating with the opposition, rather than her own backbenches. Of course, she has been unwilling to do that, but that's the impasse, not Corbyn's refusal to talk. I would say that your subsequently-quoted tweet proved him right, in that the government offered opposition parties absolutely no ground on any issue whatsoever:

So the only reason to be annoyed at Corbyn here is about the optics or the strategy; actually going to the meeting would have changed nothing at all. 

I didn't mean that there was a(n easy) way to an election but that that's really all he cares about and I think his position makes that clear to me. You may look more generously upon him but we'll have to disagree. He may at some point move his party firmly behind a second referendum and then a position of remaining but he won't convince me that he gives a monkeys about either. I think we can be annoyed at Corbyn for the optics, for the strategy and for it showing his position (again you may disagree but then again you're not the one annoyed with him).

Whilst I take the points you made last night about what May could have done, I think other points about it not being at all surprising that she hasn't or won't take no deal off the table (at least immediately) are just as relevant. I believe Corbyn is of this opinion, too. I think that, when he stood up and said what he did, he did so knowing full well that the most likely outcome of that was not that no deal was going to be off the table but that he wouldn't have to go and sit in a room with May - whether anything would come of it or not.

I do think the 'optics' look bad. I think it would have been a much better idea if he'd said something along the lines of they were happy to engage in any meaningful way with anyone in order to get us out of the mess we are in but that the first thing that any sensible opposition party would be demanding of the government would be to take no deal off the table and that these would be the first words that he would utter upon entering the room. If he subsequently came out of the meeting and told the waiting media that the talks proved utterly fruitless because the PM refused to rule out no deal then I think it would have put much more pressure on May and, by that, might have been a more likely way to get her to shift her position.

This 'strategy' (if it really is one) might work out but I think that the positioning of Corbyn and May confirm that not only is there no internal Tory way to resolve the situation, there is no cross-party leadership way to resolve the situation. If it is to be resolved, it will require both Corbyn and May to be sidelined by others in each party. The front benches won't talk to each other and I'm critical of the position that any front bench might put other party's members in if they bypass the opponent's front benches; it therefore seems to me more and more that the only way to go is for front benches on both sides to be ignored by backbenchers across the house. Not a bad thing if it works and Parliament regains control from the inadequates at the top.

[WhatAboutTheFinish]

23 minutes ago, desensitized43 said:

So to summarise the government position "we're willing to compromise, just not on the stuff that's important to us"...great

Well at least they’ve learned something from the EU! 

[StefanAVFC]

1 minute ago, WhatAboutTheFinish said:

Well at least they’ve learned something from the EU! 

I must have missed when we adopted the Euro and Schengen

[bickster]

 

[snowychap]

17 hours ago, OutByEaster? said:

So, there are (probably) four outcomes here:

• Revoking A50 and staying in Europe
• Extending A50 and looking at renegotiating
• The seven-week-miracle-negotiation that suits both the EU and the entirety of Parliament
• No deal

Where would you put each of those in terms of likelihood?

 

• Revoking A50 and staying in Europe                                                                                                      10%
• Extending A50 and looking at renegotiating                                                                                          25%
• The seven-week-miracle-negotiation that suits both the EU and the entirety of Parliament              0.001%
• No deal                                                                                                                                               64.999%

 

Edit: Option 2 could quite possible become option 1. An extension of A50 automatically reduces the % for No deal, I'd say.

 

Edited January 17, 2019 by snowychap

[ml1dch]

11 minutes ago, snowychap said:

• Revoking A50 and staying in Europe                                                                                                      10%
• Extending A50 and looking at renegotiating                                                                                          25%
• The seven-week-miracle-negotiation that suits both the EU and the entirety of Parliament              0.001%
• No deal                                                                                                                                               64.999%

 

Edit: Option 2 could quite possible become option 1. An extension of A50 automatically reduces the % for No deal, I'd say.

I think option two isn't quite what option two would actually be. 

If we take as wrote that the thing that stops it getting through the Commons is the backstop (as most MPs claim is their main objection), that will still be there under a renegotiation. So there's not much point renegotiating.

Let's say May caves, and agrees to all of Labour's fantasy demands which are then agreed by the EU27 - the backstop still won't be leaving the withdrawal agreement.

[Chindie]

• Revoking A50 and staying in Europe                                              1%            
• Request extending A50 and looking at renegotiating                  30%         
• Renegotiated deal and passed by Parliament by deadline         0%
• No deal                                                                                                60%
• May's zombie deal agreed at the death                                         9%

Revocation won't happen while half of Parliament is running scared of the referendum result.

A50 extension request is fairly likely as it becomes increasingly clear the impasse isn't going to resolve itself. Won't change much mind on current showing.

There's absolutely no chance of renegotiation before the deadline in March. May's redlines won't change, without that the EU won't move either, and it's unlikely May'll be gone by then either, unless she falls down the stairs or something. Ain't happening.

No deal is the default result and can only be prevented by action being taken, either agreeing a deal, requesting and being granted an extension, or revoking A50. Each have their own hurdles to cross and each day passing gives them less time to be passed over.

May's deal could be resurrected and the desperation of time running out enough rebellious MPs come to agree it. This is clearly May's plan and had been obviously so since the earliest indication the deal was going to be hammered by Parliament. Her current 'strategy' clearly this path as well. There's a chance it'll work.

Of course if the second referendum happens that changes things.

[bickster]

Latest YouGov poll puts Remain 12 points ahead (the largest margin ever) apparently 56-44. Sorry not seen a link or the data yet

[NurembergVillan]

3 hours ago, cyrusr said:

What typeface is it now?

Personally think it should be wingdings, will make about as much sense. 

Comic Sans

[bickster]

 

[Enda]

Lads you really should revoke at this stage, call a General Election, have a proper national discussion (maybe even a new referendum) about your relationship with the EU and, if necessary, invoke A50 again in a year or two. "This has been a shambles, and we are not as ready as we want to be" is an embarrassing admission, but collectively deciding what you as a nation want long-term is far more important than rushing out immediately.

[LondonLax]

41 minutes ago, Enda said:

Lads you really should revoke at this stage, call a General Election, have a proper national discussion (maybe even a new referendum) about your relationship with the EU and, if necessary, invoke A50 again in a year or two. "This has been a shambles, and we are not as ready as we want to be" is an embarrassing admission, but collectively deciding what you as a nation want long-term is far more important than rushing out immediately.

That is the only option that is in the best interests of the country but I can’t see it happening. 

[brommy]

3 hours ago, snowychap said:

• Revoking A50 and staying in Europe                                                                                                      10%
• Extending A50 and looking at renegotiating                                                                                          25%
• The seven-week-miracle-negotiation that suits both the EU and the entirety of Parliament              0.001%
• No deal                                                                                                                                               64.999%

 

Edit: Option 2 could quite possible become option 1. An extension of A50 automatically reduces the % for No deal, I'd say.

 

I thought the EU had ruled out agreeing a delay to Article 50 unless it was for exceptional circumstances, such as a general election or another referendum, and they would definitely not extend just for further negotiations. Are the EU likely to renege on this?

Edited January 17, 2019 by brommy

[brommy]

1 hour ago, bickster said:

 

Yet it has also been reported that 22 weeks is the minimum but perfectly feasible timetable for organising another referendum.

[snowychap]

1 minute ago, brommy said:

I thought the EU had ruled out agreeing a delay to Article 50 unless it was for exceptional circumstances, such as a general election or another referendum, and not they would definitely not extend just for further negotiations. Are the EU likely to renege on this?

To be fair, the option was the one OBE put forward. I think that an extension of A50 has the potential to lead to a wide range of things regardless of whatever provisos may supposedly come with that extension.

If it were me coming up with the options then I'd have gone with:

A50 extension and A50 revocation and remain             20%

A50 extension and new deal after a referendum/GE    10%

A50 and still No Deal                                                     5%

Miracle on Downing Street                                             0.001%

No deal on 29th March                                                  64.999%

[snowychap]

On the subject of A50 extension:

 

[snowychap]

Don't think much of the Reservoir Dogs remake.