PompeyVillan Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 I'm politically engaged and even I've had enough of this shite. What a load of toss this whole situation is, it's brought out the worst in the whole country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Guess spending some political capital was beyond her after all Going to the nephew's christening soon. Can't wait to tell him about all of Theresa May's oratory that he missed when he's grown up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Chindie Posted January 16, 2019 VT Supporter Popular Post Share Posted January 16, 2019 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xann Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, Chindie said: Downing Street collapsing into the Earth's core overnight would be worth celebrating. If Chris Grayling was made PM over breakfast? The UK would be underwater by lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutByEaster? Posted January 16, 2019 Moderator Share Posted January 16, 2019 Second only to putting self interest aside was "Now MP's have made clear what they don't want " which would, you'd expect naturally be followed by confirmation that No Deal was completely off the table in line with the message from just about everybody in the house and which she instead followed with something about all working together to vote for my deal or some such. I don't know how she does it with a straight face.* *I can only assume it's because she's incapable of actual expressions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutByEaster? Posted January 16, 2019 Moderator Share Posted January 16, 2019 28 minutes ago, bickster said: This is known as the Corbyn Unicorn I think Corbyn's unicorn is the magic renegotiation. For me delaying A50 would be the most sensible option out there - if we're going to leave, delay article 50 by a sensible time - say up to 2025 - and give the UK time to drop out of individual deals and projects as they expire, agree deals on things like farming subsidises incrementally and give everyone a chance to slowly adjust, both at home and in Europe to us leaving - the divorce bill could be spread, the EU could be supported in key areas through the process and other areas could be tied up quickly so that the negotiations at the end were simpler. Of course, that won't happen because anything that takes longer than a Parliament is beyond the capacity of party politics - we'd be asking May and Corbyn to act on behalf of their successors, from whichever side of the house - an unthinkable betrayal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted January 16, 2019 VT Supporter Share Posted January 16, 2019 It isn't possible to take No Deal off the table and still pursue a Brexit policy. The only way is to revoke A50 and stop the whole thing. Until then, No Deal is just a legal fact unless we secure a deal. No Deal isn't in our control, beyond calling the whole thing off. The 'best' that could be said is the government will not pursue a No Deal outcome, but that carries less weight than a feather and that would be with a trustworthy government in place. This lot? Their word is meaningless. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 13 minutes ago, Chindie said: It isn't possible to take No Deal off the table and still pursue a Brexit policy. The only way is to revoke A50 and stop the whole thing. Until then, No Deal is just a legal fact unless we secure a deal. No Deal isn't in our control, beyond calling the whole thing off. The 'best' that could be said is the government will not pursue a No Deal outcome, but that carries less weight than a feather and that would be with a trustworthy government in place. This lot? Their word is meaningless. This is true, to a large extent, but of course it would be possible for the government to come out and say something like, 'well, if we haven't got a deal passed by March 28th, we'll revoke article 50 immediately'. Obviously I don't expect May to do that, at least not imminently, but that would go quite a long way to taking No Deal off the table. The fact that she hasn't said that - again, despite the political capital of 'can't be challenged in a leadership election for eleven months' and 'currently looks impregnable from a VONC' - suggests she either won't do it at all or is going to keep everybody waiting for a maximally annoying period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutByEaster? Posted January 16, 2019 Moderator Share Posted January 16, 2019 She hasn't given any indication at all that she's open to negotiation on any single element of her deal. I fully expect her to bring it back intact at some point soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted January 16, 2019 VT Supporter Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said: This is true, to a large extent, but of course it would be possible for the government to come out and say something like, 'well, if we haven't got a deal passed by March 28th, we'll revoke article 50 immediately'. Obviously I don't expect May to do that, at least not imminently, but that would go quite a long way to taking No Deal off the table. The fact that she hasn't said that - again, despite the political capital of 'can't be challenged in a leadership election for eleven months' and 'currently looks impregnable from a VONC' - suggests she either won't do it at all or is going to keep everybody waiting for a maximally annoying period of time. At which point the EU would just say 'Cool. So do you want to revoke it now just to save time or is it better we play out the whole charade?'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
legov Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 hours ago, cyrusr said: Apparently we made up our mind 2 1/2 years ago about something that nobody really knew what it meant and we are not allowed to change it... I know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutByEaster? Posted January 16, 2019 Moderator Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, Chindie said: At which point the EU would just say 'Cool. So do you want to revoke it now just to save time or is it better we play out the whole charade?'. What we should be doing now is approaching the EU and agreeing that the option to extend A50 is in place should we be unable to sort out our crap by 29th March. They don't want No Deal and I think they'd be open to that. I think once that catastrophe is averted, we might be able to sit down and figure out a plan to get around May and work this out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, Chindie said: At which point the EU would just say 'Cool. So do you want to revoke it now just to save time or is it better we play out the whole charade?'. The EU have no say about revocation, though. I mean they might say something but it's completely within the UK's power to decide if/when to revoke. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, Chindie said: At which point the EU would just say 'Cool. So do you want to revoke it now just to save time or is it better we play out the whole charade?'. 1 minute ago, snowychap said: The EU have no say about revocation, though. I mean they might say something but it's completely within the UK's power to decide if/when to revoke. Yes, this is my understanding of the legal case. It might burn a lot of remaining goodwill - on the other hand, it might not, if it averts a situation that inconveniences the EU too - but I believe we are in sole control of revocation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted January 16, 2019 VT Supporter Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, snowychap said: The EU have no say about revocation, though. I mean they might say something but it's completely within the UK's power to decide if/when to revoke. Indeed. But it's clear whatever deal May will present can't get through Parliament, and the EU won't change the deal without the red lines changing, which isn't going to happen, which leads to the default being no deal and if we have a commitment that should we get to the end of March with No Deal we'll revoke A50, the EU then has even less reason to renegotiate and given all roads lead to no deal at that point we may as well just revoke it there and then and save the effort. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, Chindie said: Indeed. But it's clear whatever deal May will present can't get through Parliament, and the EU won't change the deal without the red lines changing, which isn't going to happen, which leads to the default being no deal and if we have a commitment that should we get to the end of March with No Deal we'll revoke A50, the EU then has even less reason to renegotiate and given all roads lead to no deal at that point we may as well just revoke it there and then and save the effort. Sure. I get what you meant now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted January 16, 2019 Moderator Share Posted January 16, 2019 39 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said: I think Corbyn's unicorn is the magic renegotiation. For me delaying A50 would be the most sensible option out there - if we're going to leave, delay article 50 by a sensible time - say up to 2025 - and give the UK time to drop out of individual deals and projects as they expire, agree deals on things like farming subsidises incrementally and give everyone a chance to slowly adjust, both at home and in Europe to us leaving - the divorce bill could be spread, the EU could be supported in key areas through the process and other areas could be tied up quickly so that the negotiations at the end were simpler. Of course, that won't happen because anything that takes longer than a Parliament is beyond the capacity of party politics - we'd be asking May and Corbyn to act on behalf of their successors, from whichever side of the house - an unthinkable betrayal. We cannot unilaterally delay A50. For any delay to happen all 27 countries have to unanimously agree and they’ve already said numerous times, that this will only happen if there is a chance that A50 will be revoked (read: referendum). Extending the A50 period will not happen to renegotiate Hence its a unicorn shitting rainbows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyh29 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 (edited) 47 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said: or me delaying A50 would be the most sensible option out there - if we're going to leave, delay article 50 by a sensible time - say up to 2025 - and give the UK time to drop out of individual deals and projects as they expire, agree deals on things like farming subsidises incrementally and give everyone a chance to slowly adjust, both at home and in Europe to us leaving - the divorce bill could be spread, the EU could be supported in key areas through the process and other areas could be tied up quickly so that the negotiations at the end were simpler. As I referred to the other day in some areas temporary arrangements have already been put in place ( agreed ?) in the event of No deal ... so for example , the fabled no planes in the sky won’t happen because an extension deal kicks in until the end of 2020 ... Similar “plans” apply to other areas , finance , transportation and some rights of residence ( I’m sure there are loads of others ) it would , on paper at least , do as you say allow deals to be rolled over subject to final agreement, settlement etc whilst saying this one is easy , let’s agree on planes and that Eurostar drivers don’t need to have a EU operating license and a U.K. liencense .. job done and one less thing to worry about the current fear for some Brexiters over an article 50 extension would be it means we never leave , this way we would leave but with mutual agreements in place and an end point ..... i guess you’ll end up with the Irish border , customs area , FOM and fishing ... so same outcome as you suggest but from a different direction Will never happen of course and I’m sure there are a million reasons and flaws as to why it couldn’t ... it’s not what anybody particularly wants but it might be a way out from the current situation where everybody can feel like they’ve won ... Edited January 16, 2019 by tonyh29 Changed to “plans” rather than “deals” as I’m not sure exact terminology without double checking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted January 16, 2019 VT Supporter Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, bickster said: We cannot unilaterally delay A50. For any delay to happen all 27 countries have to unanimously agree and they’ve already said numerous times, that this will only happen if there is a chance that A50 will be revoked (read: referendum). Extending the A50 period will not happen to renegotiate Hence its a unicorn shitting rainbows This is true. Although Barnier did today say that if the red lines change they are happy to talk. They'd probably have to renegotiate if Corbyn was PM. An extension would be agreed for a referendum, a new government, or possibly of the was a clear and palpable change of direction from Westminster. They are less likely to extend it just to let Theresa spend a bit longer trying to put lipstick on her pig. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 (edited) I think this is the thing that makes me think she's so rubbish as a politician. The conventional wisdom is something like 'she's a dead woman walking', 'she's in a desperately weak position' and so on, and sure it's far from ideal. But I really think if she were a bit adventurous she would have used *tonight* to do something decisive, and I did wonder if she would take the step I outlined above to announce the revocation of article 50 in the absence of a deal. It would have put pressure on her backbenchers to back her deal, if she simply intends to keep presenting it again and again to the Commons, and what were the ERG going to do, march back into the chamber and demand a new VONC? The party has had two solid opportunities to ditch her, and has lined up behind her grumbling each time. She may well have to/decide to pull the same lever anyway in a few weeks, and it would have surely been least damaging *immediately* after the vote. EDIT: Sorry @Chindie, I see now you were saying something similar before and I misread your post. Edited January 16, 2019 by HanoiVillan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts