sidcow Posted September 28, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted September 28, 2022 (edited) Pound on the slide again after The IMF criticises Government plan. Bunch of **** wits. Edited September 28, 2022 by sidcow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KentVillan Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 40 minutes ago, CVByrne said: Yeah, most people locking in 5Y fixed rates this year and paying the penalty fees to get out of their old 2Y fixed. People are going to stay put for years now. I think it might be like post Brexit vote where people were not selling lower than they thought their homes worth and properties just stayed on market unsold for years. So I can see a pull back of the crazy rises seen since post Covid boom, but not a real market collapse in prices. That only happens with mass unemployment ala 2008/9. We're at record lows in terms of unemployment and we have a worker issue due to Brexit. So property prices a mild pull back to last year and then stable with low trasactions for a few years until economy comes back and rates drop. Surely interest rate rises and inflation will result in forced sales? Unemployment not the right thing to focus on - irrelevant if you’re employed but can’t afford repayments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ingram85 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 16 minutes ago, sidcow said: Pound on the slide again after The IMF criticises Government plan. Bunch of **** wits. I used to jest about an apocalyptic Fallout style bottle cap currency. Now I’m looking at Coca-Cola multipacks in Costco in a new light. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVByrne Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 46 minutes ago, Panto_Villan said: The problem with this is the valuations. It’d be pretty much impossible (not to mention extremely tedious) to reliably calculate your net wealth every year. How much has your laptop or phone depreciated this year? Do fluctuations in the commodities market mean your wedding band has increased in value this year, or does the scratch it got this year cancel that out? Whereas PAYE is a straightforward way for the government to calculate and collect the right amount of money each month. And it also doesn’t mean that tax take falls to zero during a recession when the price of assets decreases. I'm not saying replace PAYE it VAT. Just Stamp Duty and Capital gains. Yes there is an issue calculating the value changes of property assets. Stocks is much easier. We would need to keep capital gains for something like unlisted equity and venture capital etc. until it is listed. For property we can get valuations and estimates from lots of sources. Sale prices in the area, revaluations for remortgaging. Data is there to set valuations every 2 or 3 years. This is a stable way of generating income from wealth accumulation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Panto_Villan Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 10 minutes ago, KentVillan said: Surely interest rate rises and inflation will result in forced sales? Unemployment not the right thing to focus on - irrelevant if you’re employed but can’t afford repayments. There’s sort of a web of interconnected effects. Technically a house is a good thing to hold during inflation because logically it should retain its relative value with inflation, while the outstanding amount of the mortgage is being eroded by inflation. In a vacuum you could theoretically keep remortgaging the increased value to help with the increased payments (unlikely to be viable in practice, but still interesting I think). Also if you’re employed you’d expect wage increases to somewhat keep pace with inflation, so you’d expect people to be able to keep up on their mortgages if they are employed unless they have very little disposable income and can’t cut back at all if their wages get eroded a bit. Unemployment is a killer though because then people are reliant on savings to keep up their payments, and that’s when houses get repossessed in large numbers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post ml1dch Posted September 28, 2022 Popular Post Share Posted September 28, 2022 The brightest Conservative mind of his generation has another idea of what's going wrong... 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo985 Posted September 28, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted September 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, ml1dch said: The brightest Conservative mind of his generation has another idea of what's going wrong... The gymnastics people do to blame stuff on Labour is amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVByrne Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 27 minutes ago, KentVillan said: Surely interest rate rises and inflation will result in forced sales? Unemployment not the right thing to focus on - irrelevant if you’re employed but can’t afford repayments. That doesn't really happen. People have equity in their homes and can switch to interest only mortgages or a period of deferred payments. There's lots of avenues that happen when someone is in employment and rate rises are putting strain on their ability to pay. Proper prices plummeting requires sharp rise in unemployment. That's not happening as we have a shortfall of workers and that's one of the inflationary pressures 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Straggler Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Just now, Stevo985 said: The gymnastics people do to blame stuff on Labour is amazing Crazy isn't it. I've read what the IMF have to say and funnily enough, they don't mention Starmer once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo985 Posted September 28, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted September 28, 2022 Just now, Straggler said: Crazy isn't it. I've read what the IMF have to say and funnily enough, they don't mention Starmer once. It's like when the shelves were empty in supermarkets and people were saying it was a preview of what life would be like under Labour. Without realising it was happening now. under the tories 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pas5898 Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 (edited) 14 hours ago, bickster said: It won't. All cutting Stamp Duty will do, is increase the price of houses We don't have enough builders and we don't have enough building materials or enough people to make building materials All those 2020/2021 (covid time) 2 year fixed term mortgages are about to expire. House prices will not go up between now and the next election. Edited September 28, 2022 by pas5898 rewording Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVByrne Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 They'll have to postpone the tax cut to the 45% rate until 2024. It's the only climb down they can do. That in conjunction with a BoE rate hike can save us from ruin hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KentVillan Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 27 minutes ago, CVByrne said: That doesn't really happen. People have equity in their homes and can switch to interest only mortgages or a period of deferred payments. There's lots of avenues that happen when someone is in employment and rate rises are putting strain on their ability to pay. Proper prices plummeting requires sharp rise in unemployment. That's not happening as we have a shortfall of workers and that's one of the inflationary pressures Do we trust UK unemployment rate as a meaningful reflection of "above water" employed anymore? I'm not sure I understand the difference between being unemployed and being on minimum wage vis-a-vis mortgage repayments. If interest rates & living costs rise rapidly, you'll still be in the same boat of needing to sell, and remortgaging etc won't help? And there are plenty of other scenarios around this - e.g. pensioners who can't easily increase their income (90% of low-income pensioners own their own homes) may want to downsize as cost of living pushes them beyond affordability. I get that housing crashes are *usually* precipitated by high unemployment, but we're heading into another sort of crisis here that could easily drive similar outcome? I don't think it always has to look the same as what preceded it. That's what makes these crises so unpredictable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVByrne Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, KentVillan said: Do we trust UK unemployment rate as a meaningful reflection of "above water" employed anymore? I'm not sure I understand the difference between being unemployed and being on minimum wage vis-a-vis mortgage repayments. If interest rates & living costs rise rapidly, you'll still be in the same boat of needing to sell, and remortgaging etc won't help? And there are plenty of other scenarios around this - e.g. pensioners who can't easily increase their income (90% of low-income pensioners own their own homes) may want to downsize as cost of living pushes them beyond affordability. I get that housing crashes are *usually* precipitated by high unemployment, but we're heading into another sort of crisis here that could easily drive similar outcome? I don't think it always has to look the same as what preceded it. That's what makes these crises so unpredictable? People on low wages don't own homes. So the above water mark for those is to do with rent and bills etc. People who have mortgages and jobs will be able to work out plans with the lenders. The only situation we see forced selling is if these people in large numbers lose their jobs and the supply of homes on sale spikes as a result in a market without the demand. I predict a significant fall off in transactions. So people staying put. I don't see a property crash without the unemployment of the middle class as we say in 2008/9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KentVillan Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 1 minute ago, CVByrne said: People on low wages don't own homes. So the above water mark for those is to do with rent and bills etc. People who have mortgages and jobs will be able to work out plans with the lenders. The only situation we see forced selling is if these people in large numbers lose their jobs and the supply of homes on sale spikes as a result in a market without the demand. I predict a significant fall off in transactions. So people staying put. I don't see a property crash without the unemployment of the middle class as we say in 2008/9 Not true 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bannedfromHandV Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 52 minutes ago, ml1dch said: The brightest Conservative mind of his generation has another idea of what's going wrong... What an absolute pile of shite that piece is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rodders Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 It's Daniel Hannan, arch bellend and brexit fanatic since cerca 2013/4 which is roughly when I remember him getting some prominence as a vocal bellend calling for stuff like privatising the NHS. A shitstain of a human really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, Stevo985 said: It's like when the shelves were empty in supermarkets and people were saying it was a preview of what life would be like under Labour. Without realising it was happening now. under the tories Only a few months ago Rishi was telling people it was inherited Labour formulas that were stopping money going to the affluent area he was talking in. He was going to change that if he was elected PM. Obviously didn’t get chance during the other 12 years Conservatives were in charge. They have no shame and think everybody are idiots. Edited September 28, 2022 by Genie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 20 minutes ago, CVByrne said: People on low wages don't own homes. So the above water mark for those is to do with rent and bills etc. People who have mortgages and jobs will be able to work out plans with the lenders. The only situation we see forced selling is if these people in large numbers lose their jobs and the supply of homes on sale spikes as a result in a market without the demand. I predict a significant fall off in transactions. So people staying put. I don't see a property crash without the unemployment of the middle class as we say in 2008/9 The problem will be landlords who have mortgages on their rented out houses having to pass on interest rate rises to their tenants (who may or may not be able to afford them). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 She learned from the master Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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