ismail-villa Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Europa league spot?! Don't you need to finish 5th as the other two spots are given to the Capital One and FA cup winners? So yeah.... Impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost_of_Pongo_Waring Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Europa league spot?! Don't you need to finish 5th as the other two spots are given to the Capital One and FA cup winners? So yeah.... Impossible. Not necessarily. If the cups are won by teams who finish in the Champions League places then you can qualify in 7th. Us finishing 7th might be very unlikely but it's not impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndyM3000 Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 We will be closer to 20th than 7th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ismail-villa Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Europa league spot?! Don't you need to finish 5th as the other two spots are given to the Capital One and FA cup winners? So yeah.... Impossible. Not necessarily. If the cups are won by teams who finish in the Champions League places then you can qualify in 7th. Us finishing 7th might be very unlikely but it's not impossible. I would say it's near on impossible imo, the top 7 picks itself tbf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suttonpaul Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 Europa league spot?! Don't you need to finish 5th as the other two spots are given to the Capital One and FA cup winners? So yeah.... Impossible. Not necessarily. If the cups are won by teams who finish in the Champions League places then you can qualify in 7th. Us finishing 7th might be very unlikely but it's not impossible.I would say it's near on impossible imo, the top 7 picks itself tbf. I agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost_of_Pongo_Waring Posted September 6, 2014 Share Posted September 6, 2014 We will be closer to 20th than 7th. As long as we don't have horrendous luck with injuries again this season I think we'll finish higher than 14th this season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
7392craig Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 If we keep the pace and have good luck with injuries then 11th/12th, if we start falling away or have more players out with torn ligaments and broken legs then I think we could end up like last season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted September 17, 2014 Author VT Supporter Share Posted September 17, 2014 1st: 0.5%2nd: 1.4%3rd: 2.7%4th: 3.9%5th: 5.3%6th: 6.3%7th: 7.6%^^^ upper quartile8th: 8.4%9th: 8.3%10th: 9.7% == median, maximum likelihood11th: 8.4%12th: 8.2%vvv lower quartile13th: 7.3%14th: 6.4%15th: 5.2%16th: 4.0%17th: 3.0%18th: 1.9%19th: 1.1%20th: 0.4%3rd: 0.2%4th: 0.6%5th: 1.1%6th: 2.1%7th: 3.1%8th: 4.3%9th: 5.5%10th: 6.8%^^^ upper quartile11th: 7.8%12th: 8.4%13th: 9.1% == median14th: 9.4% == maximum likelihood15th: 9.1%16th: 8.7%vvv lower quartile17th: 7.8%18th: 6.9%19th: 5.4%20th: 3.7% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bose Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Those numbers don't tell us anything. Because we've won at Liverpool we're now more likely to finish in the top ten than before the game? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lapal_fan Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 I like the fact we're more likely to win the league then come last. Lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted September 17, 2014 Author VT Supporter Share Posted September 17, 2014 (edited) Those numbers don't tell us anything. Because we've won at Liverpool we're now more likely to finish in the top ten than before the game?Yes.Ceteris paribus, unless it was a game we had no chance of ever losing, no win can decrease the chance of finishing above a certain place in the table. Edited September 17, 2014 by leviramsey 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whatever happened to ..... Posted September 17, 2014 Share Posted September 17, 2014 Top ten this year no problem betting on 8th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted September 17, 2014 Author VT Supporter Share Posted September 17, 2014 Of interest, our expected form for the rest of the season is about 14th best. For the moment, the Monte Carlo simulator doesn't actually think we're that good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lexicon Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 (edited) Just out of interest - what final league position would you guys take if offered? I think 8th for me, as it stands. Edited September 18, 2014 by lexicon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
parisvilla Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 Opta just tweeted that no team has ever taken more than 7 points from their first 4 games and been relegated from the Premier League. Might as well aim for the title then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginko Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 You realise that we are THE team that always breaks ducks though, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
omariqy Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 I think we will come crashing down against Arsenal as we always lose when fans expect a win. However, we have a good squad and somewhere between 10th and 12th would do me right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Richard Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 I think we should finish above first place 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PieFacE Posted September 18, 2014 VT Supporter Share Posted September 18, 2014 I'm still thinking 15th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rodders Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 I think we've shown now that there's no reason we can't at least compete for the best of the rest spot - which is 8th. Top 7 take care of themselves as they're all stronger. But us, Stoke, Southampton, Swansea maybe, should be battling it out for 8-10th. Still very early days, but I am reasonably confident we will finish much more strongly than last year. 12th and below and I think I'd be disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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