The Arab Spring and "the War on Terror"

[OutByEaster?]

 

Meanwhile rumours abound that they, Qatar and the Turks are in the process of supplying MANPADS to the AQ affiliates in Syria to target Russian aviation. Aside from the obvious idiocy of supplying surface to air missiles to AQ in a country bordering Europe, they might actually shoot down some Russian aircraft.  I don't think the Saudis sense of self regard is going to save them from Vlad's wrath if it happens.

 

Vlad's latest shoulder launched SAM is very effective indeed. Both superpowers could do with not proliferating this tech!

The purpose of perpetual war might well be the proliferation of expensive tech.

 

[CarewsEyebrowDesigner]

Erdogan going full shitebag.

[Awol]

There has also been intense criticism of the Kingdom’s response to the Syrian refugee crisis. Yet this is unfair, as it fails to acknowledge that Saudi Arabia has taken in over 2.5 million displaced Syrians.

Is that true?

 

I've read that if oil prices stay low Saudi Arabia will be bankrupt in five years.

They let Syrians who were already resident workers to bring their families to join them. They've taken in zero refugees.

EDIT: Reference Saudi bankruptcy they will only run out of cash if they don't cut spending. Their problem is they only maintain consent to govern by spraying incredible amounts of cash to the elites, so it's problematic for sure. 

Edited October 28, 2015 by Awol

[Awol]

Saudi Arabia won't be lectured by anyone.

 

Unfortunately.

Those same purveyors of evil will be beating down the doors at Heathrow when IS overruns their shitty country. Still as long as they bring their cash with them I'm sure they'll be made very welcome down the Chelsea Rd.  

Meanwhile rumours abound that they, Qatar and the Turks are in the process of supplying MANPADS to the AQ affiliates in Syria to target Russian aviation. Aside from the obvious idiocy of supplying surface to air missiles to AQ in a country bordering Europe, they might actually shoot down some Russian aircraft.  I don't think the Saudis sense of self regard is going to save them from Vlad's wrath if it happens. 

The Turks have also weighed in over the weekend launching their first attacks against the US allied Kurds in Syria who are fighting against Islamic State (incidentally many dozens of former UK military are fighting with them as unpaid volunteers against IS).  Pretty clear now where Erdogan stands in all this and with fresh Turkish elections on Nov 1st things there could get really interesting. 

With the Turks, I can't see what's in it for them - it sounds like they're on the verge of upsetting the US and the Russians for not much gain (other than keeping the Saudi's happy) and Erdogan is on a difficult course - Ataturk's founding principles are of a secular Turkish state, and going directly against those principles is likely to get him a civil war. What are they hoping to gain?

 

Erdogan doesn't believe in the secular Turkish State, he is a Brotherhood favouring Islamist and has numerous reasons to mix it up with the Syrian Kurds.

The PYD (Syrian Kurd political entity established 2003 and child of the PKK in Turkey) are aiming to unite the Kurdish cantons currently spread along the Syrian - Turkish border into "Rojava", or western Kurdistan, which has two primary implications for Turkey; first, cutting off IS, Al Qaeda and the other anti-Assad groups from the borders of Turkey. This is a problem for Erdogan because Turkey is a major player in supplying the various Salafist Jihadist movements in Syria because he wants to take down Assad.  

Secondly he and his AKP party are very concerned that should the Kurds consolidate the entire length of the Turkish border with Iraq and Syria that will incite Turkey's 15 million ethnic Kurds to try and break away to join their brothers in Iraq and Syria to form a Kurdish nation.    He made it clear that if the Syrian Kurds moved west of the Euphrates river in Syria to link up the cantons then Turkey would attack them. They did that at the weekend so he stuck to his word, but as you point out those same people are the primary US allies against IS in Syria so its all a little complicated. 

The other problem for Turkey is Russia which it considers its primary strategic threat. Now they have moved into Syria to back Assad it's made the Turks very nervous indeed, but paradoxically attacking the Syrian Kurds could drive them into the arms of the Russians who will back them to make mischief with the Turks, and to cement the Kurds mutual non-aggression stance with the Assad regime.  

With the election coming on the 1st of November it could even more complicated, particularly if the US decides to ramp up support for the Kurds to counter increasing Russian influence. 

[OutByEaster?]

I seem to remember from the last Turkish election that Erdogan isn't as secure as his policies make him appear - the election could be very important I guess in deciding how the region works - and as ever with democratic elections in places the US has a strong interest in, there's likely to be some 'influence' in the result that the US wants. I didn't realise there was an election on 1st November - perhaps we might see the back of him.

 

[Awol]

No chance of Erdogan going, it's a question of where he can get a majority big enough to change the constitution, move to a Presidential system that centres power on him personally and will allow him to destroy the secular state.  He was blocked earlier this year by the Kurdish vote and didn't take it well...

[Xann]

Saudi prince Abdel Mohsen bin Walid bin Abdulaziz was caught in an airport in Lebanon on Monday with over two tons of drugs.

Lebanese security found 40 suitcases full of more than 4,000 pounds of amphetamine pills and cocaine on the prince’s private plane, which was on its way to Saudi capital city Riyadh.

Party Cancelled!

[omariqy]

Someone please destroy the monarchy in Saudi. Someone please.

[Wainy316]

Saudi prince Abdel Mohsen bin Walid bin Abdulaziz was caught in an airport in Lebanon on Monday with over two tons of drugs.

Lebanese security found 40 suitcases full of more than 4,000 pounds of amphetamine pills and cocaine on the prince’s private plane, which was on its way to Saudi capital city Riyadh.

Party Cancelled!

Death penalty then surely? Have to be consistent.

[Rugeley Villa]

according to russian intelligence isis are planning on invading central asia and have moved a lot of their soldiers to the afghan border so they can attack central asia. how true this is i dont know. how are isis viewed in pakistan? and even in the north of india where they are meant to have a presence, also indonesia which has the largest population of muslims. if isis could get something going in indonesia how much of a threat could they be.

[Ikantcpell]

Why cant someone just nuke saud arabia.

[PompeyVillan]

BBC are claiming that all the Russians have done is blow up a lot of innocent people and create more refugees in Syria. Their targeting systems are 'dumb' and inaccurate. Assad has made no significant territorial gains since they started bombing. Which is amazing since they've been running so many successful and accurate sorties.

There must be some opposition to Putin in Russia, any intelligently person with an Internet connection could see what he's doing.

[omariqy]

Why cant someone just nuke saud arabia.

Because 99% of people killed would be innocent.  If someone in Saudi said what you said about the UK say because of say Tony Blair being a war criminal then no doubt that would be front page news and he would be labelled a terrorist. You shouldn't say such disgusting things.

Edited October 29, 2015 by omariqy

[Ikantcpell]

Why cant someone just nuke saud arabia.

Because 99% of people killed would be innocent.  If someone in Saudi said what you said about the UK say because of say Tony Blair being a war criminal then no doubt that would be front page news and he would be labelled a terrorist. You shouldn't say such disgusting things.

Jesus Christ, relax, i was being ironic.

[omariqy]

[TrentVilla]

So did ISIS or a derivative of ISIS bring down that Russian airliner? They have claimed to have done so and the video that has emerged over night certainly adds weight to the claim.

It seems unlikely still but would be a very very serious development if they were behind it.

[YGabbana]

So did ISIS or a derivative of ISIS bring down that Russian airliner? They have claimed to have done so and the video that has emerged over night certainly adds weight to the claim.

It seems unlikely still but would be a very very serious development if they were behind it.

Didnt the pilot report a technical problem after take off?

[Rugeley Villa]

i read the pilot had a few issues with the plane earlier in the week and then after take off had a problem. not sure if isis were behind this but its very coincidental, russia start bombing the hell out of isis then a russian plane comes down over dangerous territory.

[Chindie]

If there was any third party involvement it's going to be a bomb on board which doesn't seem particularly likely, as a man mounted missile couldn't hit at that altitude and the Islamist contingent in that area isn't known to have more serious armaments.

Russian airlines have horrendous safety records, particularly the smaller ones, and they're has been a lot of talk of the copilot saying the plane was in poor knick before the flight. I'd lean towards catastrophic failure of some element before saying this ones due to Islamist activity.

[TrentVilla]

Far far more likely but the footage is curious. And I agree a bomb on board is the only plausible at they could have brought it down but you are right re Russian airlines.