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The Arab Spring and "the War on Terror"


legov

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Saudi/Qatar are allies of the US/UK/France and could be easily interpreted as direct proxies, and ISIS is being funded by these guys. Not that war is likely to result, but I would expect this is how it will be interpreted on the Russian side.

Now the question is... did ISIS do this on their own or were they given some help by one of the various government agencies playing the game over there... CIA/Mossad jump to the front of the queue given their previous.

Previous of blowing passenger jets out the sky? I don't think so personally.

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Saudi/Qatar are allies of the US/UK/France and could be easily interpreted as direct proxies, and ISIS is being funded by these guys. Not that war is likely to result, but I would expect this is how it will be interpreted on the Russian side.

Now the question is... did ISIS do this on their own or were they given some help by one of the various government agencies playing the game over there... CIA/Mossad jump to the front of the queue given their previous.

First paragraph, you could be right. Second paragraph, no.  Don't forget Saudi Arabia stepped in to back the Sisi regime in Egypt once they overthrew the Morsi Brotherhood government which had been supported by the Qataris and Turks.  Therefore if Saudi wanted to strike a Russian airliner I'm sure they (or their chosen proxy) could have gotten a free pass from Cairo.  Would either the US or Israel directly attack Russian civilians? Not a chance. 

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No, not directly... but the CIA have been involved in all sorts of atrocities in latin america in the 80s... and they have zero morals. I just think this is more a case of starting something of which you then lose control and in that sense they are responsible.

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I'll wait for confirmation it was a bomb before going too heavy on this, but that was always the only likely malicious third party involvement.

If it is a bomb, there's no conspiracy. I know some people desperately want there to be, but it'll be as simple as a bunch of backwards Islamists attacking a nation they see as an aggressor in a cowardly fashion. No more. Forget wild thoughts of false flag operations or shady activity. Nobody benefits.

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I agree... but I have a real hard time parsing what's happening over there given the geo-political games being played.

But... somebody always benefits, e.g., Egyptian military will likely get lots of terrorism dollars and military assistance from the US now, which will probably help repair some of the damage done to the US/Egypt alliance by the recent military coup. This should help the USA regain an ally in the region and also benefits the long term Israel/Egypt relationship.

Oh, and the Russians will be pressured into further embroiling themselves in this mess. 

Of course, this may all be just lucky consequences of the actions of those ISIS guys... but they ain't stupid either.

 

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If the US wants to involve itself with Egypt, they'll involve themselves again with Egypt. They don't need to manufacture a disaster to do it, via proxies or whatever. They don't need to develop a narrative to do so - they already have it. The Russians have all the reasons they need to involve themselves in this situation already.

And so on and so forth.

There's no conspiracy.

Edited by Chindie
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But what of the Egyptions? etc etc., this is fun and I can play all day.

Look... also, stop with the conspiracy disparagement... that's  a known and quite pathetic NSA trolling tactic. Listing some possibilities is not the same as saying this happened or that happened and that darth maul is the puppeteer.

One should simply be wary of the official narrative.

  

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Sadly I can't play all day.

I don't work for the NSA, sadly, either. I also don't tend to troll.

I do take a deep interest in this subject, to the extent most of my education beyond GCSE is dedicated to it.

You aren't just listing possibilities, you're laying out what you think happened which is predicated on a Hollywood take of international relations.

I say this a skeptic, so I tend not to follow the official line. You'll note my earlier post which leant away from accepting this was a bomb, yet.

The Egyptians can get support without resorting to some grand event like this. They're a developing country in a position of interest to a number of players. They come to the table in any negotiation with a power, global or regional, with cards to play with.

Edited by Chindie
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Chindie, mate, you gullible government puppet. Next you'll no doubt be telling us that 9/11 wasn't an inside job, the moon landing really happened and Lee Harvey Oswald really shot JFK. 

F*** the man, man. 

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I haven't actually advocated a position. Merely outlined possibilities, that I believe to be worth baring in mind. Some, for no other reason than to play out possible scenarios.

@Chindie: You are analyzing this situation quite logically and clearly. Now, what relation such a viewpoint has to those who are in some control of the general (or even some) happenings vis-a-vis Syria and to a larger extent ISIS right now is debatable. This is the viewpoint I am trying to appreciate, hence my this and thats above. 

Oh, and thanks for biting on the NSA bit ... :ph34r:. I had written "NSA endorsed" (kudos to Snowden), but my inner devil told me to remove the endorsed. Tit for tat or just being an ass or some such. I appreciate your input/opinion and I am not actually trying or deliberately intending to troll here. 

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So AWOL, what if anything has been the impact on the ground in Syria of the Russian involvement?

I keep reading headlines about the large number of bombing missions and targets destroyed but it is impossible to take Russian news at face value. (Not that you can trust the BBC these days)

Are ISIS feeling the effects more than they did from the efforts of the other nations involved?

It certainly appears that way given the news about the Aleppo air base this morning.

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Saudi/Qatar are allies of the US/UK/France and could be easily interpreted as direct proxies, and ISIS is being funded by these guys. Not that war is likely to result, but I would expect this is how it will be interpreted on the Russian side.

Now the question is... did ISIS do this on their own or were they given some help by one of the various government agencies playing the game over there... CIA/Mossad jump to the front of the queue given their previous.

Previous of blowing passenger jets out the sky? I don't think so personally.

Iran Air 655, 1988.

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Saudi/Qatar are allies of the US/UK/France and could be easily interpreted as direct proxies, and ISIS is being funded by these guys. Not that war is likely to result, but I would expect this is how it will be interpreted on the Russian side.

Now the question is... did ISIS do this on their own or were they given some help by one of the various government agencies playing the game over there... CIA/Mossad jump to the front of the queue given their previous.

Previous of blowing passenger jets out the sky? I don't think so personally.

Iran Air 655, 1988.

Yes I'm aware of that, it is a tragic event much like that over Ukraine. It isn't though an example of what was being discussed which was the intentional bombing of a passenger aircraft.

As far as I'm aware the incident with the Iranian plane was an accident, although deliberately shot down, it was done in error after it was wrongly identified. 

I don't really see that as being the same sort of incident.

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Perhaps it was an accident, perhaps not. They didn't exactly admit any responsibility, which you'd have thought they might have done if it was a clear accident. They paid compo on a "we don't accept any liability" basis. Grudging in the extreme.

But I just thought it was an example of the US "blowing a passenger jet out of the Sky" so said so, as an act of pedantry, really.

Carry on with the much better level of discussion than I've been able to contribute. :)

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Well as questionable as the U.S foreign policy has been at times particularly in relation to Iran, I personally find it unthinkable that they would have intentionally shot down a passenger aircraft killing almost 300 people. What possible motive could they have for such an action or possibly hope to achieve?

As for the lack of culpability from them that surely just owes to legal caution and the desire to avoid being sued and/or prosecuted.

I think it's a bit of a leap to see it as being evidence of possible intent.

Anyway... AWOL where are you?

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