Stevo985 Posted February 29 VT Supporter Share Posted February 29 On 27/02/2024 at 12:50, Vive_La_Villa said: I said a while back United were not a concern and then the words removed somehow managed to close the gap to 5 points. I think normal service is starting to resume. They are shit. I said it even when the gap closed to 5 points. I've been saying it for weeks. it just doesn't make sense when you look at the numbers. The collapse from us and the upturn in form from them that would be needed is too big. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rodders Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 On 27/02/2024 at 10:53, fightoffyour said: I know I'm being stupid, but how come those percentages at the top seem good for England but then the table below has us in third? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villan_of_oz Posted February 29 VT Supporter Share Posted February 29 7 minutes ago, Stevo985 said: I said it even when the gap closed to 5 points. I've been saying it for weeks. it just doesn't make sense when you look at the numbers. The collapse from us and the upturn in form from them that would be needed is too big. Now this I can agree with, Manure shouldn't and I believe won't get anywhere near us. I'll be stunned if we are worried about them at all in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
omariqy Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 8 minutes ago, Stevo985 said: I said it even when the gap closed to 5 points. I've been saying it for weeks. it just doesn't make sense when you look at the numbers. The collapse from us and the upturn in form from them that would be needed is too big. I’ll be a lot more confident after this weekend if we beat Luton and they lose to City. Then we just need the European results to go our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DakotaVilla Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 In all fairness the loss of Shaw and Hojlund completely derailed them v Fulham. As we know, you can’t plan for that shit. It’s us v spurs for 4th but reality is that barring some miracles from Bayern 5th will probably be good enough for champions league. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayEm Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 5 minutes ago, Rodders said: I know I'm being stupid, but how come those percentages at the top seem good for England but then the table below has us in third? England's teams are favoured to go further in the tournaments than Germany's, and therefore earn more points. It is confusing though for sure 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaJ100 Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 The thing is with Man U is the arseholes could easily win 6 or 7 games in a row while playing absolutely turd football by getting dodgy pens/lucky late goals and a truck load of decisions go their way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 Will it be an earlier round of the CL that 5th will be in compared to 4th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post tonyh29 Posted February 29 Popular Post Share Posted February 29 (edited) 2 minutes ago, nick76 said: Will it be an earlier round of the CL that 5th will be in compared to 4th? That's for Spurs to worry about Edited February 29 by tonyh29 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vive_La_Villa Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 (edited) 22 minutes ago, Rodders said: I know I'm being stupid, but how come those percentages at the top seem good for England but then the table below has us in third? You get points for winning extra games too so a team finishing second in a group could get more points than the group winner. That’s dumb and why England are third at the moment. Majority of our teams won their groups so didn’t play the last round. Edited February 29 by Vive_La_Villa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turvontour Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 46 minutes ago, VillaJ100 said: The thing is with Man U is the arseholes could easily win 6 or 7 games in a row while playing absolutely turd football by getting dodgy pens/lucky late goals and a truck load of decisions go their way. Well yes of course, and then if we're not winning many games as well then they would go above us, deservedly. It's those two scenarios that need to play out for us to finish below them. We need to be worse than we are, for the rest of the season, and they need to be better than they are, for the rest of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villarule123 Posted February 29 VT Supporter Share Posted February 29 1 hour ago, nick76 said: Will it be an earlier round of the CL that 5th will be in compared to 4th? No, all 36 teams go into a league. There's still seeds to find out who plays each other which I'm guessing we'll be bottom seeds regardless of where we finish. It will guarantee a lot of big teams to face around Europe though which will be exciting! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allani Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 50 minutes ago, jayEm said: England's teams are favoured to go further in the tournaments than Germany's, and therefore earn more points. It is confusing though for sure Indeed - plus the points you earn are the same for all UEFA competitions. So if we progress in the Conference League, England's coefficient improves by the same amount as if Man City progress in the CL. These are the relevant matches in the next rounds: Italy Germany England France Spain CL Bayern v Lazio (0-1) Bayern v Lazio (0-1) Man City v Copenhagen (3-1) Sociedad v PSG (0-2) Sociedad v PSG (0-2) Barcelona v Napoli (1-1) Real Madrid v Leipzig (1-0) Arsenal v Porto (0-1) Real Madrid v Leipzig (1-0) Atletico v Inter (0-1) Dortmund v PSV (1-1) Barcelona v Napoli (1-1) Atletico v Inter (0-1) Europa Sporting v Atalanta Qarabag v Leverkusen Roma v Brighton Marseilles v Villareal Marseilles v Villareal Roma v Brighton Freiburg v West Ham Sparta v Liverpool AC Milan v Slavia Prague Freiburg v West Ham Conf Maccabi v Fiorentina Ajax v Aston Villa Sturm Graz v Lille So there are already a few matches (particularly the CL) where a team from one of the other leagues vying for an extra CL spot is playing against a club from another. Meanwhile Brighton and West Ham's Europa matches are important because they both play teams from clubs currently higher in the UEFA coefficients. So wins for either will make it a bit more likely that England gains one of the extra spots. It also means that it is important that we progress further than Fiorentina in the Conference as again that would represent a swing in our favour. With so many of the current rounds seeing matches between teams from the 5 leagues leading the coefficients race - the coefficient table is likely to change significantly and as a result the odds will also change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
duke313 Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 17 minutes ago, villarule123 said: No, all 36 teams go into a league. There's still seeds to find out who plays each other which I'm guessing we'll be bottom seeds regardless of where we finish. It will guarantee a lot of big teams to face around Europe though which will be exciting! There will for four Seeded pots, we'll likely be bottom. Two picked from each pot, I assume teams from same domestic league can't play each other, so we'll probably have a very difficult set of fictures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
omariqy Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 Correct me if I am wrong but I believe the total points are then divided by the number of teams you originally had in the various competitions. So the more the teams exit from your country then the less the additional coefficient points matter. I.e. if we get a total of 14 points then it is divided by 8 as that is the amount of teams we had across the 3 competitions, regardless of the fact that only 6 remain at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo985 Posted February 29 VT Supporter Share Posted February 29 2 hours ago, omariqy said: I’ll be a lot more confident after this weekend if we beat Luton and they lose to City. Then we just need the European results to go our way. If we lose to Luton and they beat City I'd still put very good money on us beating them. They won't do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beastmix Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 I'm certain the changing room mentality will be 'Close the gap on Arsenal' rather than 'distance ourselves from Spurs' and I think it's a mentality even the fans of 'big' teams adopt. Easier said than done, and I know it's unusual for us, but us fans should try to adopt the same mindset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allani Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 12 minutes ago, omariqy said: Correct me if I am wrong but I believe the total points are then divided by the number of teams you originally had in the various competitions. So the more the teams exit from your country then the less the additional coefficient points matter. I.e. if we get a total of 14 points then it is divided by 8 as that is the amount of teams we had across the 3 competitions, regardless of the fact that only 6 remain at this time. I think the coefficient shown in the tables is after that calculation has taken place. But I think you are right for each team that progresses our coefficient would increase by slightly less than France (because we had 2 more teams earning points). However, the teams above us had 7 teams in Europe - compared to our 8 - and so it's not particularly relevant. I think it would be more significant for the Czech Republic (who had 4 teams qualify). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
omariqy Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 5 minutes ago, Stevo985 said: If we lose to Luton and they beat City I'd still put very good money on us beating them. They won't do it Yeah I certainly won't be giving up hope if that happens. We could easily lose to Luton and beat Spurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo985 Posted February 29 VT Supporter Share Posted February 29 (edited) 1 minute ago, omariqy said: Yeah I certainly won't be giving up hope if that happens. We could easily lose to Luton and beat Spurs. The gap would just be back to 5 points. Which it has been since we beat Arsenal in December. Even through our "slump", they made up zero ground, despite beating us twice They don't have it in them to put together the run required to overtake us. And these days we don't have it in us to slump hard enough to let them Edited February 29 by Stevo985 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts