MarkLillis Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 6 hours ago, TRO said: They came at Newcastle, like a pack of Hyena's....The urgency, and intesity, was class leading. Yes they were very impressive 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WakefieldVillan Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 13 hours ago, JPAngel said: A quick update on the average PPG thread following the Sheff Utd, Man Utd and Burnley games. Just to help manage my own expectations and let data do the talking. Our average PPG still sees us finishing with a projected total of 79.8 points which would generally see us finish 3rd. As has been mentioned previously, teams have generally needed 70-71 points to finish 4th over the last 10+ years so I feel that earning 28-29 points from the next 18 games should be our minimum objective. If we can win ten of the below, we should secure CL football comfortably. EVE (A) NEW (H) win SHU (A) WIN MNU (H) (please FFS) FUL (A) NOT (H) WIN LUT (A) WIN TOT (H) WHU (A) win WOL (H) WIN MNC (A) BRE (H) WIN ARS (A) BOU (H) WIN CHE (H) WIN BRI (A) LIV (H) CRY (A) win It's going to be a fun ride! There's my 10! Ones in bold I'm more confident of. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mantis Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 hour ago, Kiwivillan said: Listening to Goldbridge YT from yesterday he thinks Manure best hope is 6th and battle for 6th between Manure Brighton Wham Chelsea and Newcastle. So saying the top 5 already set Yeah I see United as only a minor threat at this point. If they finish above us then so too are a bunch of other teams and it means we've collapsed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villaphan04 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 yeah, I would be extremely surprised if any of the top 5 are not in the top 5 by the end of the season. 5-point gap between 5th & 6th, and an 8-point gap between 5th and 7th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tomaszk Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 3 hours ago, Kiwivillan said: Listening to Goldbridge YT from yesterday Let me stop you there. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adam2003 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 hours ago, Mantis said: Yeah I see United as only a minor threat at this point. If they finish above us then so too are a bunch of other teams and it means we've collapsed. Yeah agreed. Big gap to West Ham in 6th. We should get top 5 unless we fall apart from here*. Whether it’s in 1-4 or 5th, and what you get for 5th, all remains to be seen. *Don’t get me wrong we COULD fall apart - but that’s on us, it’s not what West Ham or Brighton or Man United do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adam2003 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 10 hours ago, villarule123 said: I've had a funny feeling all season that we will need to win the Conference final to get that spot confirmed. Haha same and I have no idea how those numbers would add up - but wouldn’t that be fun….! (Not actual fun, more like torture. But you know what I mean) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kiwivillan Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 (edited) 1 hour ago, Tomaszk said: Let me stop you there. He's funny. Honestly, hard not to be jealous of someone making a fortune talking about football on a YT channel Edited January 3 by Kiwivillan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVByrne Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 1 hour ago, Villaphan04 said: yeah, I would be extremely surprised if any of the top 5 are not in the top 5 by the end of the season. 5-point gap between 5th & 6th, and an 8-point gap between 5th and 7th. I'd be very surprised if we collapsed. Spurs are just gamblers and lucky ones. They just let games been end to end chaos and are wildly overachieving on their xG in terms of results. They may drop off a lot while Chelsea may click into gear. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weedman Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 8 hours ago, CVByrne said: I'd be very surprised if we collapsed. Spurs are just gamblers and lucky ones. They just let games been end to end chaos and are wildly overachieving on their xG in terms of results. They may drop off a lot while Chelsea may click into gear. Spurs are just Leeds under Bielsa with better players, they'll continue to pick up injuries due to playing at 100mph and their players being shattered but be involved in some really good games as the style is exciting to watch if nothing else 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TRO Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 (edited) 20 hours ago, nick76 said: Mate, I don’t get this view as we currently stand. Emery got 85 points from 42 games in 2023. Why do you think we suddenly are going to fall away? If we get 75 points or more we get Top4, that’s 33 points from 18 games. Our run rate this season is 2.1 ppg. Even if we don’t get that we still have space ppg wise because rate required is less than 2 needed. Added to that the last ten years, Top 4 averages 70-71 points…is this season going to be an outlier…hmmm. Added to that Spurs losing three players to Asia Cup and AFCON, Liverpool losing Salah and then with the injuries those teams have, and we have our players coming back from injury plus some recovery time this month, we should be positive about Top4…. Added to that we have Emery… As we currently stand or what we have done in the past, is an exact science.....We are talking about predictions. I don't really want to go in to the reasons, for my view, because it may come across as a criticism as opposed to an observation.....albeit, you could read between the lines, from my posts. I still think we are too easy to score against, and until that is addressed, I am not as convinced as some, about top 4. Naturally, I hope I am wrong.....and depending who comes in, and what position they play, might force me to revisit my view....but right now 5th or 6th for me. Edited January 3 by TRO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TRO Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 19 hours ago, Kiwivillan said: Why is it bridge too far? We have 2nd most points in 2023. Because, that is what I think. Its what we do in 2024, will determine where we finish....if we do the same, sure we will finish in the top 4 if, is a little word, with a big meaning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TRO Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 19 hours ago, villan95 said: Liverpool were very good, as shown by the 7.5 xG, but Newcastle were able to put the ball in their net 3 times (albeit only 2 counted) so they can be got at. Liverpool too could have had more....but more importantly, they looked convincing....The suffocated Newcastle, with overwhelming pressure. Lets not forget, Newcastle too have fire power, we won't forget that, will we....so its no wonder, they too had their moments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJBOB Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 11 minutes ago, TRO said: As we currently stand or what we have done in the past, is an exact science.....We are talking about predictions. I don't really want to go in to the reasons, for my view, because it may come across as a criticism as opposed to an observation.....albeit, you could read between the lines, from my posts. I still think we are too easy to score against, and until that is addressed, I am not as convinced as some, about top 4. Naturally, I hope I am wrong.....and depending who comes in, and what position they play, might force me to revisit my view....but right now 5th or 6th for me. By every metric, we're around 4th/5th in defense. We've gone around this in circles but functionally, we will play a different defense 8/10 games and only turn in a big pressing performance when needed for energy levels (Brighton at home, City at home, Newcastle at home last year). The one worry for me is our away form and we'll probably end up splitting between Arsenal and City. The good thing is that we play United/Spurs/Liverpool/Chelsea all at home while only having to go Brighton away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJBOB Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 If we split it given our drastic home/away splits Home Newcastle United Forest Tottenham Wolves Brentford Bournemouth Chelsea Liverpool Almost serendipity that these matches are at home where we need them. Imagine trying to graft a result against Bournemouth/Chelsea/Liverpool away going into April and May. Each one of great importance and for VP to be rocking. Away Everton Sheffield Fulham Luton West Ham City Arsenal Brighton Palace A tough away set to end the year but very winnable games in the front. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fun Factory Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 13 hours ago, Villaphan04 said: yeah, I would be extremely surprised if any of the top 5 are not in the top 5 by the end of the season. 5-point gap between 5th & 6th, and an 8-point gap between 5th and 7th. I still remember 08-09 when we were still 4th going into March and managed to get 6th by going on a 8 game winless run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
duke313 Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 2 minutes ago, The Fun Factory said: I still remember 08-09 when we were still 4th going into March and managed to get 6th by going on a 8 game winless run. Please, don't remind us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TRO Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 5 minutes ago, DJBOB said: By every metric, we're around 4th/5th in defense. We've gone around this in circles but functionally, we will play a different defense 8/10 games and only turn in a big pressing performance when needed for energy levels (Brighton at home, City at home, Newcastle at home last year). The one worry for me is our away form and we'll probably end up splitting between Arsenal and City. The good thing is that we play United/Spurs/Liverpool/Chelsea all at home while only having to go Brighton away. I accept many of your points, but let me say this, the away form you mention, is associated with my fear of conceding too easy...it is mainly away from home, but there have been some examples, at home, too. Let me share a stat with you, in the last 5 seasons only 1 team has finished in the top 4, with conceding in excess of 50 goals....Thats Chelsea in 2019/20 with 54 goals.....we are currently on 27, so at out current rate, we will finish on 51 just remember, these are merely, views and opinions.....not facts. I am convinced, with our goal scoring, I feel we have enough fire power, to reach top 4....I am just not convinced with our defending. I am not relying soley on Stats, albeit they do support my "eye test" and just for the record....I do not blame the high line, for the questionable defending.....I am a fan of the high line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fun Factory Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 It's funny because going back to the MON years are weak point was the home form with far too many draws. We were a top away side in those days, had difficulty breaking teams down at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 When it comes to where we finish, people are not wrong that there's a possibility we finish 6th or even lower as a result of going on a long winless run or occasional wins punctuating a long sequence of losses or whatever, but that is a tail scenario; the opposite tail scenario of course is 'we win far more games than expected and win the league'. The modal probability, if you ran a monte carlo simulation would be for us to continue doing about as well as we are, and have been doing for a calendar year, and finish somewhere in the 3rd-5th range. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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