fightoffyour Posted December 13, 2023 VT Supporter Share Posted December 13, 2023 1 hour ago, GlobalVillan said: Yes that Jonny Evans chap will be as fresh as a daisy from now on. We had better watch out! What a discovery that was last night - he still plays for Man Utd, and in a crucial CL tie of all matches! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Your Round Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 6 hours ago, DakotaVilla said: He’s going to get the sack at some point. The only question is when. Wednesday 27th December, 9am. Following an embarrassing 0-7 defeat to Aston Villa the previous evening 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVByrne Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 United going out of Europe hasn't helped the cause for extra CL place. Need City and Arsenal to smash it in CL and Liverpool and us to win the EL abd ECL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPAngel Posted December 13, 2023 VT Supporter Share Posted December 13, 2023 I'm not sure if this is any good to anyone but I'm far too excited about the prospect of getting into the Champions League and I needed an outlet. I checked back over the last 10 or so years to get total point averages for finishing 4th and 5th (with 5th seeming likely to obtain CL football next year) to see where our current trajectory stacks up. On the chart below, the X axis is games played and the Y axis is points accrued. As you can see, our current points total has us above where we need to be to reach the CL by around 5 points. Sometimes it's good to see things in the cold light of a spreadsheet! For fun, I took a stab at predictions for the rest of the season. I know it's a fools errand but I wanted to see where we'd end up with some very conservative predictions and it puts us right in the middle of the average points for 4th and 5th. For context, I've not been wild with my estimates and have called the remaining games as: W:9, D:7, L:6. Crazy to think that winning just 9 of the remaining 22 matches (along with 7 draws) would see us amass a total of 69 points which would almost certainly be enough for 5th. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rubberman Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 22 minutes ago, JPAngel said: I'm not sure if this is any good to anyone but I'm far too excited about the prospect of getting into the Champions League and I needed an outlet. I checked back over the last 10 or so years to get total point averages for finishing 4th and 5th (with 5th seeming likely to obtain CL football next year) to see where our current trajectory stacks up. On the chart below, the X axis is games played and the Y axis is points accrued. As you can see, our current points total has us above where we need to be to reach the CL by around 5 points. Sometimes it's good to see things in the cold light of a spreadsheet! For fun, I took a stab at predictions for the rest of the season. I know it's a fools errand but I wanted to see where we'd end up with some very conservative predictions and it puts us right in the middle of the average points for 4th and 5th. For context, I've not been wild with my estimates and have called the remaining games as: W:9, D:7, L:6. Crazy to think that winning just 9 of the remaining 22 matches (along with 7 draws) would see us amass a total of 69 points which would almost certainly be enough for 5th. Crazy to say it, but that looks very pessimistic! Whichever way you look at it I can't see us getting 7 draws - it's not how we are set up. If you extrapolate season to date to the remaining 22, you get W15, D3 and L4, so 83 points. If you look at his entire time with us you still get W14, D3 and L5 for 80 points. And just for completeness, using just last season (which is kind of like-for-like timeframe), W13, D4 , L5 - 78 points. I'm sure someone has a spreadsheet to compare the remaining fixture points vs what we got last season, but I'd be surprised if it gave much of a different picture. Maybe injuries, europe/tiredness will come to bite us in the latter stages of the season, but while Newcastle/Spurs are already looking leggy, we're looking brilliantly managed so far. And maybe expectations are getting too high, but to finish mid-60's would be a pretty big drop-off from here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colhint Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 Can anyone help me here. I know that there is a possibility of an extra CL place, does that mean there is one extra European spot. Or do we still only get 7 places for Europe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulMcGrath_5 Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 9 minutes ago, colhint said: Can anyone help me here. I know that there is a possibility of an extra CL place, does that mean there is one extra European spot. Or do we still only get 7 places for Europe. What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPAngel Posted December 13, 2023 VT Supporter Share Posted December 13, 2023 12 minutes ago, rubberman said: Crazy to say it, but that looks very pessimistic! Whichever way you look at it I can't see us getting 7 draws - it's not how we are set up. If you extrapolate season to date to the remaining 22, you get W15, D3 and L4, so 83 points. If you look at his entire time with us you still get W14, D3 and L5 for 80 points. And just for completeness, using just last season (which is kind of like-for-like timeframe), W13, D4 , L5 - 78 points. I'm sure someone has a spreadsheet to compare the remaining fixture points vs what we got last season, but I'd be surprised if it gave much of a different picture. Maybe injuries, europe/tiredness will come to bite us in the latter stages of the season, but while Newcastle/Spurs are already looking leggy, we're looking brilliantly managed so far. And maybe expectations are getting too high, but to finish mid-60's would be a pretty big drop-off from here. Yep! I had the same thought process as you but, as 83 points and 78 points both feel like a crazy number to achieve, I tempered my expectations so I didn't get carried away. For context, over the same period (2009/2010 - 2022/2023), the total point averages are: 2nd - 82 3rd - 73 4th - 71 5th - 67 3rd place total points averages are pretty consistent but there's a pretty huge swing when it comes to 2nd place. Examples being 92 points required in 2022 and 97 required in 2019 but only 71 points required in 2016 and 2011. Whichever way you look at it, we're 100% on course to finish in the top 5 even with a pessimistic prediction of our remaining fixtures. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colhint Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 (edited) Well at the moment we get 7 European spots 4 CL 2 EL and 1 ECL. If the premier league gets an extra CL spot do we get one extra place in Europe, meaning 8th place will qualify for Europe. Or do we lose a spot from either EL or ECL. Edited December 13, 2023 by colhint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ender4 Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 1 minute ago, colhint said: Well at the moment we get 7 European spots 4 CL 2 EL and 1 ECL. If the premier league gets an extra CL spot do we get one extra place in Europe, meaning 8th place will qualify for Europe. No, one of the Europa League spots gets upgraded to a CL spot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
duke313 Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 10 minutes ago, ender4 said: No, one of the Europa League spots gets upgraded to a CL spot. No, we get 5 CL spots, 2 Europa and 1 ECL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post fightoffyour Posted December 13, 2023 VT Supporter Popular Post Share Posted December 13, 2023 That's cleared that up then. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjw63 Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, fightoffyour said: That's cleared that up then. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ender4 Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 (edited) Glad we could assist Duke is right though and i was wrong. It is an extra European place overall for the league. I used that new fangled Googly thing on that webby internet place. Edited December 13, 2023 by ender4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrBlack Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 5 minutes ago, ender4 said: Glad we could assist Duke is right though and i was wrong. It is an extra European place overall for the league. I used that new fangled Googly thing on that webby internet place. As you probably found out, it was a measure brought in to protect the established elite. Giving those clubs that threatened the breakaway a couple of extra opportunities to get into the champions league even if they have an off year by their own standards. The extra places were factored in by the expansion of the competition, with some of the other spaces created dished out to different lesser leagues. It's immensely ironic that United could well end up finishing 5th, but not get the champions league spot that was created for the exact reason they're demonstrating this season, due to their own failure in the tournament. I'd love it if that happened. I'd love it more if they finished 9th or lower, which is weirdly possibly more likely at this point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPAngel Posted December 13, 2023 VT Supporter Share Posted December 13, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, rubberman said: Crazy to say it, but that looks very pessimistic! Whichever way you look at it I can't see us getting 7 draws - it's not how we are set up. If you extrapolate season to date to the remaining 22, you get W15, D3 and L4, so 83 points. If you look at his entire time with us you still get W14, D3 and L5 for 80 points. And just for completeness, using just last season (which is kind of like-for-like timeframe), W13, D4 , L5 - 78 points. I'm sure someone has a spreadsheet to compare the remaining fixture points vs what we got last season, but I'd be surprised if it gave much of a different picture. Maybe injuries, europe/tiredness will come to bite us in the latter stages of the season, but while Newcastle/Spurs are already looking leggy, we're looking brilliantly managed so far. And maybe expectations are getting too high, but to finish mid-60's would be a pretty big drop-off from here. I just wanted to pick up on the bit in bold, here. When swapping out Leicester, Leeds and Southampton for Burnley, Sheffield United and Luton (in that order) our results from last season for all of our remaining fixtures this season equals 34 points (W10, D4, L8) and would leave us on 69 points. Weirdly, that's exactly in line with my pessimistic prediction for the rest of the season (W9, D7, L6) and would see us claim 5th but I'm quietly confident we can do better than that! Edited December 13, 2023 by JPAngel 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
duke313 Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 10 minutes ago, MrBlack said: As you probably found out, it was a measure brought in to protect the established elite. Giving those clubs that threatened the breakaway a couple of extra opportunities to get into the champions league even if they have an off year by their own standards. The extra places were factored in by the expansion of the competition, with some of the other spaces created dished out to different lesser leagues. It's immensely ironic that United could well end up finishing 5th, but not get the champions league spot that was created for the exact reason they're demonstrating this season, due to their own failure in the tournament. I'd love it if that happened. I'd love it more if they finished 9th or lower, which is weirdly possibly more likely at this point. The current extra spots are not as bad as the original plan which was to give them to teams who failed to qualify for CL based on their co-efficient over last 5 seasons, which would all but guarantee teams like Chelsea and Spurs would have a permanent route into each season's CL even if they failed to qualify through the normal top 4. This iteration at least gives the spots to the league rather than the legacy CL clubs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheMelvillan Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 25 minutes ago, ender4 said: Glad we could assist Duke is right though and i was wrong. It is an extra European place overall for the league. I used that new fangled Googly thing on that webby internet place. total fad. will never catch on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrBlack Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 17 minutes ago, duke313 said: The current extra spots are not as bad as the original plan which was to give them to teams who failed to qualify for CL based on their co-efficient over last 5 seasons, which would all but guarantee teams like Chelsea and Spurs would have a permanent route into each season's CL even if they failed to qualify through the normal top 4. This iteration at least gives the spots to the league rather than the legacy CL clubs. Yes, it was a slightly better option, and I guess that's a big reason why the superleague talk won't go away. Those clubs can't afford not to be in the champions league, so they'll just try again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rubberman Posted December 13, 2023 Share Posted December 13, 2023 1 hour ago, JPAngel said: I just wanted to pick up on the bit in bold, here. When swapping out Leicester, Leeds and Southampton for Burnley, Sheffield United and Luton (in that order) our results from last season for all of our remaining fixtures this season equals 34 points (W10, D4, L8) and would leave us on 69 points. Weirdly, that's exactly in line with my pessimistic prediction for the rest of the season (W9, D7, L6) and would see us claim 5th but I'm quietly confident we can do better than that! Interesting. I assume a fair few of those must have been during the Gerrard days, so there is almost certain to be improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts