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Race for Champions League - 2023/2024


Don_Simon

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6 hours ago, switters said:

Can't see 'em getting much away at Liverpool and West Ham, so it could be a v unhappy Old Trafford by the time we go on Boxing Day.

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Brighton dropping points as well and Spurs-Newcastle got each other tomorrow so at least one of them will drop points too. Even if we lose to Arsenal, we're not giong to be losing much ground this weekend.

Brighton dropping points at home to Burnley was a big result for us imo. They've gone off the radar but ultimately they've juggled europa, endless injuries and are still in a decent position to finish for 6th again and by extension 5th. Sort of team that will at some stage of the season go on a 4-5 winning run I think and they'll certainly finish above Man. United.

West Ham quietly have snuck back into contention. Beat Fulham tomorrow and they'll be top 6.

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1 minute ago, Adam2003 said:

Points per game over the last year has us bang on course for CL but not the title. Up to any individual whether they think we will keep improving or tail off…

This is actually a huge period for us now. We simply have to be ruthless and get dominant lead over some of our rivals.

I've been confident since middle of September we'd finish above Man. United in league standings since first time since the 80s. The current gap is 8 points and better GD. Either side of the boxing day match we have Burnley and Sheffield United at home, they have West Ham and Forest away and Liverpool away next week. Even a draw at Old Trafford and we should be 12 points clear of them by time NYD hits I reckon.

At least one of Newcastle/Spurs will drop points tomorrow.

We are now 16 points clear of Chelsea so again they're nothing to worry about but they can help us as they still have to host all of Man. United, Spurs, West Ham and Newcastle in second half of the season.

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2 hours ago, Tomaszk said:

How far clear was it ever under MON? Feels like about it was in that area.

Heads down. Win the next game.

Until we're out of the race, we're in it.

5 was the most. I remember the 2-2 with Arsenal Boxing Day and we battered them for 75 minutes (they had a 15 minute spell either side of half time). 

Had we beaten them after all the chances we missed I think we’d have made CL comfortably. 

Then we bought Heskey instead of Falcao and Cavani. These two wins were vital from a psychological standpoint.

The belief is in the club now. There’s going to be a fear from other sides. 

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1 minute ago, Sulberto21 said:

5 was the most. I remember the 2-2 with Arsenal Boxing Day and we battered them for 75 minutes (they had a 15 minute spell either side of half time). 

Had we beaten them after all the chances we missed I think we’d have made CL comfortably. 

Then we bought Heskey instead of Falcao and Cavani. These two wins were vital from a psychological standpoint.

The belief is in the club now. There’s going to be a fear from other sides. 

When Zat Knight scored the equaliser, that was one of my top five Holte End moments. We were on the cusp of something special.

Then MoN completely **** it.

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1 minute ago, Don_Simon said:

When Zat Knight scored the equaliser, that was one of my top five Holte End moments. We were on the cusp of something special.

Then MoN completely **** it.

I had to walk home to Walsall that night. Forgot the buses stopped running after 7:30pm.😂

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On 08/12/2023 at 10:57, ender4 said:

Watkins to Duran

Martinez to Olsen

Kamara to Dendoncker

Luiz to ?

Those 4 players are irreplaceable for us at the moment.

The rest of the team has good options and cover.

This is no different to the other teams though.

Onana to... 

Allison to...

Ederson to...

Salah to...

Haaland to...

Jesus to... (I know, this could get messy).

All teams have squad issues. 

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1 hour ago, picicata said:

I've not done it myself but I'm guessing that's a pleasant yomp through some beautiful countryside no? 

and other parts like the Warriors trying to get back to Coney 

Edited by Follyfoot
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11 hours ago, Adam2003 said:

Points per game over the last year has us bang on course for CL but not the title. Up to any individual whether they think we will keep improving or tail off…

The 2010s are unusual in that Man City and Liverpool were so far ahead of everybody that you night need north of 88 points to win the league. In the old days 78/79 could win it (1998, and 99). Man Utd won it with 75 points I'm 1996-97! Leicester won it with 81 pts.

It is more open this year so it could be one of those years where it takes less points to win it as there aren't two stand out teams.

Edited by Captain_Townsend
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I know we've got the title thread, and this is a champions league thread, but it's becoming increasingly unlikely that we will finish outside of a European spot, assuming that is 7th. It would be very unlikkely and disappointing to see West Ham, Chelsea or even Brighton finish above us from this point. I didn't expect to be able to say that in December.

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5 hours ago, MaVilla said:

so, what are the chances of a 5th place finish NOT being good enough for CL this year?

Does it look like the English clubs will do well enough overall, for the 5th place slot?

At the moment England is 4th, with Germany, Spain and Italy ahead of us. England need to overtake two of those ahead of us to get the fifth CL spot. There isn’t much that separate the four top nations at the moment, so who knows.

To be honest if Villa get into top 4, I wouldn’t mind if England miss out on the fifth CL spot, since it would mean that ManU, Spurs or Newcastle would miss out. If Villa ended up in fifth place, and England didn’t get the fifth CL spot, I would be really hate ManU, Newcastle and any other underperforming team in Europe that caused us to miss out on CL football.

For the time being I will be cheering on Villa to get into top 4 and ignore how English teams do in Europe.

 

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4 hours ago, Captain_Townsend said:

The 2010s are unusual in that Man City and Liverpool were so far ahead of everybody that you night need north of 88 points to win the league. In the old days 78/79 could win it (1998, and 99). Man Utd won it with 75 points I'm 1996-97! Leicester won it with 81 pts.

It is more open this year so it could be one of those years where it takes less points to win it as there aren't two stand out teams.

The way I see it, was back in the days the top teams wasn’t that good, so less points required to win. Then we had a period with only two top teams, that was way better than the rest, resulting in large points total to win. Now we have more top teams without any team way ahead of the rest, making it hard to get a large points total. Liverpool are on 2.3 points per game at the moment that would give them 88 points at the end of the season. If we continue our ppg for the season we will end up with 83 points.

Since the top is more even it could also mean that the points required for 4th spots get higher, at the moment all the top 4 teams have over 2 ppg meaning above 76 points are required for top 4.

 

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