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Race for Champions League - 2023/2024


Don_Simon

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Fair play to Sir Alex.

He knows the game and could see what was boiling. He was ridiculed after this analysis

Just read some of the comments

 

Edited by Pinebro
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4 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

I hate the fact we have City and Arsenal at home in the space of 4 days with also  2 games in the prior 5 days.  Would have really fancied us to beat Arsenal at home but just think there will be too many games around that period.

Prefer to play them at Villa Fortress Park. Gerrard managed a draw against Man City last season so who knows.

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7 minutes ago, Reivax_Villa said:

As great as it would be, i don't think our squad is ready for Champions League & Premier League football ..

We are just about getting results at Europa Conference level.

It’s the money that comes with it. Look at Newcastle about to sign a 30m a year deal with Adidas.

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24 minutes ago, Reivax_Villa said:

As great as it would be, i don't think our squad is ready for Champions League & Premier League football ..

We are just about getting results at Europa Conference level.

The £50-80million extra revenue from being in the Champions League should help with squad depth.

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image.thumb.png.dd5ea710215e183313f2409be29465df.png

Despite injury problems we still manage to stay around the 2 points per game mark. If we complete the season with 2 points per game, I expect us to be at least 4th, and get into Champions League.

We are 10 points better off than at the same time last season. We now play three bottom half teams, two of them at home, should be able to build a solid lead over last season.

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Next 3 games will be really interesting. Do our job and get 9 points and I can see us being second behind Liverpool - definitely opportunities for the others to drop a couple of points. (maybe!)

City - Utd a, Bournemouth h, Chelsea a

Arsenal - Sheffield h, Geordies a, Burnley h

Liverpool - Forest h, Luton a, Brentford h

Spurs - Fulham h, Palace a, Chelsea h, Wolves a

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It would be fascinating to know how this league season would have gone without us being in Europe. It might have no negative impact on our league form, but we just seem so primed for the premier league. It would be a shame if we tail off due to schedule or injuries from Europe. 

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13 hours ago, It's Your Round said:

SkyBet still have Manure as more likely than us to finish top 4. History would say that’s right, but the future may well be different. We can’t get ahead of ourselves but the consistency shown in the first 34 games of Emery’s reign really does bode well. 

They've been dreadful so far and have massive issues back to front in their team. If we beat Luton and they lose to Man. City which is a realistic prediction of results we'd already be 7 points clear with a far superior GD so even if it's just 10 games in that's a very strong position to be in.

I think we can finish comfortably above them like we did with Chelsea last year as they don't look like they'll be winning 4-5 games in a row anytime soon. I think I'm right in saying they've yet to beat any team higher than 10th away under Ten Hag so far in his tenure.

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2 hours ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

Because of the extra games in Europe. Eventually they will take their toll. If we had no Europe I would have fancied us to make it.

TBF if we sign another two or even three in January that should be enough squad wise. You'd like to think Ramsey and Moreno would be over their injuries by then aswell, that was basically our left side to finish last season.

Can't however just be waiting for Mings and Buendia to come back as only Buendia will probably make it this season and that will be April most likely.

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2 hours ago, Kiwivillan said:

New "quality players" are no guarantee of success as much as Emery in charge is. Look at Chelsea right now and other top clubs in PL that have made signings over several seasons that just haven't cut it

I agree nothing guarantees success but if you want long term success quality players plus a quality manager would be a damn good start, you won’t get regular CL football without either!

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1 hour ago, Pongo Waring said:

Luton, Forest & Fulham next our 3 PL games.  2 at home. Would take 7 points if offered now.

Forest 1 loss in 17 home games. Tougher than you would expect. We could be playing them at the right time tho.

I think Forest will be similar game to Wolves. Local game and they do have pacy players out wide so could catch us on the break but look at how they defended late on v Luton, you'd expect our front two to be looking forward to having Worrall mark them.

Fully expect to win the two home games. Fulham can be tricky as they have a decent midfield but they have very few goals in them compared to last season with not replacing Mitrovic so they'll just play for a 0-0.

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20 minutes ago, VillaChris said:

Fully expect to win the two home games. Fulham can be tricky as they have a decent midfield but they have very few goals in them compared to last season with not replacing Mitrovic so they'll just play for a 0-0.

Unai doesn't do goalless draws.

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13 hours ago, ender4 said:

I’d also agree with that. Man Utd have deeper strength in depth, they can go spend another £100m in January if needed, they will sack their manager and get a better one if Ten Hah isn’t in the top 4-6 soon, they usually seem to start slow and get better as the season progresses.

We have a smaller squad, aren’t used to a European campaign, don’t have a top 4 level transfer kitty for Jan, and aren’t used to the end of season push that might be needed when things get critical and pressured.

I seem to remember we had a great end of the season push last time to get Europa Conference.

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1 hour ago, Reivax_Villa said:

As great as it would be, i don't think our squad is ready for Champions League & Premier League football ..

We are just about getting results at Europa Conference level.

Building a Champions League squad before qualifying for CL is very difficult because of Financial Fair Play rules.

If we qualify for CL this season, we need to strengthen in the summer, but we would have more money from sponsorship deals + CL money and there are players that only want to sign for CL teams, and that means bigger transfer budget, and the pool of players we can sign is larger. That means that if we qualify for CL we would have a better squad starting next season, than if we don’t qualify. 

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2 hours ago, Reivax_Villa said:

As great as it would be, i don't think our squad is ready for Champions League & Premier League football ..

We are just about getting results at Europa Conference level.

 

You can move pretty quickly with squad development once you qualify for the Champions League, a whole other world opens up in terms of revenue you can generate, players you can attract and so on.   If you put us into the Champions League now I'd fancy us to get through a group stage, but only if it was played as a tournament in isolation like a World Cup, combining it with demands the Premier League puts on a squad is a step too far, as is evidenced by our performances when we make a lot of changes.  I'm sure everybody at the club will be aiming for 70 points which will be there or thereabouts.  We've got 68 points from 36 Premier League games under Emery so far.  

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54 minutes ago, turvontour said:

It would be fascinating to know how this league season would have gone without us being in Europe. It might have no negative impact on our league form, but we just seem so primed for the premier league. It would be a shame if we tail off due to schedule or injuries from Europe. 

My gut feeling is that it’s currently a benefit to us - providing no major injuries occur while playing in Europe, of course.

Emery has said before about wanting more games because he learns more about the players when he sees them play.

And maybe this partly what he’s getting at, broadly speaking I feel like we’re kinda finding out any kinks we have in Europe and they’re being worked upon and ironed out for the league games and the benefits are being felt there. 

In addition to that there is a sense of not being able to get too complacent because the next game is often just four days away. And at the same time, if the last result wasn’t great, you want to rectify it as soon as possible (which we more or less have so far). I’ve heard Chelsea supporters complain about not being in Europe this season purely because of the wait in between games, having to sit with a bad result for longer than you want to. I imagine that’s a very similar feeling for the players and management team.

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