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Race for Champions League - 2023/2024


Don_Simon

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Anfield, Tyne, and the Ethiad are probably our three hardest away fixtures so let’s see what our away form looks like after a few more away days

Edited by DJBOB
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30 minutes ago, Demitri_C said:

Still not great though is it?

No, it's not, but I think to some extent you need to treat the Newcastle game as a bit of a freak. The injuries clearly played a big mental role and anything can happen on opening day. The Liverpool game was worse, in that we were just very poor that day, but then again not many teams go to Anfield and avoid defeat. 

3 hours ago, VillaChris said:

Next weekend is quite important for our european aspirations. We need to be beating Wolves and other fixtures are Brighton-Liverpool and West Ham-Newcastle so depending on results we could start to pull away from a couple of them.

Yeah, I mean the Wolves game is massive. Not taking anything away from yesterday but we have Brighton's number, beating them at home is a norm these days. Wolves and West Ham are teams we've lined up against horribly in recent years so we'll know a lot from if we can beat them. 

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1 hour ago, TheAuthority said:

Carlos also had to go off with an injury in the 1st half at Anfield which prompted a complete formation change and screwed up everything we’d worked on that week. So basically 2 out of our 3 most difficult away games were completely screwed by injuries.

Good point, yes. 

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By the time we play spurs away, if we keep up with the 2 points a game average, the winner of that might well be in the top 4. Couple of reinforcements in Jan and then who knows. I've got the feeling CL is a step too far this year, but I would think we could get 5th or 6th. The incredible thing is that for all our problems on and off the pitch so far this season Emery has us averaging slightly better than 2 points per game in the league. Mental. 

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16 minutes ago, romavillan said:

By the time we play spurs away, if we keep up with the 2 points a game average, the winner of that might well be in the top 4. Couple of reinforcements in Jan and then who knows. I've got the feeling CL is a step too far this year, but I would think we could get 5th or 6th. The incredible thing is that for all our problems on and off the pitch so far this season Emery has us averaging slightly better than 2 points per game in the league. Mental. 

5th would likely get us CL, especially if we keep our end of the bargain and go deep in the UECL

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20 hours ago, turvontour said:

We're not bad away from home at all. Inferior to the home form obviously, but still top 6 away from home under Emery.

Can’t say I’m not worried our away form. So draw at Brentford (tough by then) then two losses at Utd and Wolves, draw at Anfield then two big losses this season (with Warsaw). It’s worrying mainly our way of playing. I think we need to be more conservative out there. 

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20 hours ago, Demitri_C said:

But conceding 8 in 2 games is not good

We’ve conceded 8 in 2 games at home before our streak. 11 goals and 3 losses in 3.

Hopefully with Emery we’re learning more and more from every failure. 
 

Tough and important games coming up. We need results as well as improvement in our approach (which we seem to be getting there). 

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13 hours ago, romavillan said:

By the time we play spurs away, if we keep up with the 2 points a game average, the winner of that might well be in the top 4. Couple of reinforcements in Jan and then who knows. I've got the feeling CL is a step too far this year, but I would think we could get 5th or 6th. The incredible thing is that for all our problems on and off the pitch so far this season Emery has us averaging slightly better than 2 points per game in the league. Mental. 

To be honest that’s a very good sign. Winning while having these issues, improving yet keeping our heads down. Getting lessons but in games we’re expected to lose anyway. 
If we managed to win next Thursday then progress even our loss in Poland could be a good thing to make us know our issues and make us more humble. 
 

Whenever our players or fans start thinking more they remember what happened in Newcastle and Liverpool to take it seriously. Same with Warsaw.

Competetions isn’t only one match, winnig with big result is another 3 points but how to get them consistently.

Hopefully we can be second before going to the break. It would give us a lift yet I’m sure Emery will make sure everyone is humble again. 
 

 

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1 hour ago, villarule123 said:

Imagine if we finish 5th and we have to win the Conference League final to get our league one of the two extra places in the CL. 

The Europa conference is the second played of the three final isn't it?

I assume CL win gets the most co-efficient points so basically could be Man. City fanboys which would be very amusing as none of the other three are getting close to winning it.

How does it work if Man. United or Newcastle drop out and then win the europa league but say finish 6th in the league? Can England have six entrants or is it fixed at 5 and so then we'd have to finish 4th to benefit from the extra place?

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12 hours ago, VillaChris said:

The Europa conference is the second played of the three final isn't it?

I assume CL win gets the most co-efficient points so basically could be Man. City fanboys which would be very amusing as none of the other three are getting close to winning it.

How does it work if Man. United or Newcastle drop out and then win the europa league but say finish 6th in the league? Can England have six entrants or is it fixed at 5 and so then we'd have to finish 4th to benefit from the extra place?

I think they can, because currently 5 can play. As we see as well this season 8 teams are in Europe (in another circumstances it could go to 9), but another question, would that mean only one to each Europa and Conference? Or 8th can qualify?

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14 hours ago, VillaChris said:

How does it work if Man. United or Newcastle drop out and then win the europa league but say finish 6th in the league? Can England have six entrants or is it fixed at 5 and so then we'd have to finish 4th to benefit from the extra place?

I don’t think the rules for next season are finalised yet. Currently the rule is that one association cannot have more than 5 teams in Champions League. I did read somewhere that next season, there will be no limits on teams in CL, that could mean England could potentially have 7 teams in CL next season.

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3 hours ago, viivvaa66 said:

I don’t think the rules for next season are finalised yet. Currently the rule is that one association cannot have more than 5 teams in Champions League. I did read somewhere that next season, there will be no limits on teams in CL, that could mean England could potentially have 7 teams in CL next season.

I think it is decided it's happening, just not well published. They're lining up for the change in format next season. They need two extra sides so when want to take two 'bigger' sides than actual champions like they should. (Don't be surprised to see Al Blabab suddenly become one of those champions though)

I believe it's the two countries/leagues who score the highest number of points in the coefficient rankings this season only.

So, if City and the other scammers magically fail in Europe this season, they'll be handing a UCL spot to Roma or Lecce and taking one away from Utd/Chelsea/Newcastle/Brighton/Villa. Wonder if they might want to do that.

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I just have this feeling we are going to finish 3rd.

Considering we’ve won 5 of 7 played, and already played Brighton, and away games at Newcastle, Liverpool and Chelsea, that’s pretty exceptional. 

If we at least win the games we should win, that’s a big improvement. If we can avoid losing against Arsenal, Spurs and Man Utd when we first meet them, or do better than that, I reckon we are onto something big. We are only going to improve as the season develops too.

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On 01/10/2023 at 16:08, HanoiVillan said:

No, it's not, but I think to some extent you need to treat the Newcastle game as a bit of a freak.

We always lose at St James Park and we always beat them at VP.

It's just how it goes for some reason.

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28 minutes ago, Pinebro said:

We always lose at St James Park and we always beat them at VP.

It's just how it goes for some reason.

Yep, since being promoted we’ve played them four times at home. Winning all four with an aggregate score of 9-0! Impressive stuff, and long may that record continue, a revenge thrashing akin to last season would be welcome. 

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3 minutes ago, It's Your Round said:

Yep, since being promoted we’ve played them four times at home. Winning all four with an aggregate score of 9-0! Impressive stuff, and long may that record continue, a revenge thrashing akin to last season would be welcome. 

It's strange.

Legit cannot remember last time we won at St James Park. Couldn't even do it when they had Bruce.

But their not a voodoo club since we do so well against them at VP.

It's just a weird fixture and has been for years.

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1 hour ago, thunderball said:

I just have this feeling we are going to finish 3rd.

Considering we’ve won 5 of 7 played, and already played Brighton, and away games at Newcastle, Liverpool and Chelsea, that’s pretty exceptional. 

If we at least win the games we should win, that’s a big improvement. If we can avoid losing against Arsenal, Spurs and Man Utd when we first meet them, or do better than that, I reckon we are onto something big. We are only going to improve as the season develops too.

I’m not so confident mate. Need to see how we do on those games a few days after Europe. We will likely go strong Thursday and then could be leggy for the derby on Sunday.  Luckily after that it’s week off though a lot of the team will be on international duty. 
 

We got a gruelling schedule after that which includes City and Arsenal within 4 days.

 

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Strangely enough we are actually 1 point down on last season's results (as we drew at Anfield last season and all our other results are the same if Burnley = Leicester). But we only took 7 points last season from our next 5 games (if Luton = Southampton), losing to both Wolves and West Ham and drawing with Forest. I think we'll take more than that and after Fulham will be at least a couple of points up on last season. 

 

I've gone through our games until the end of the season and think we'll end up on approx 70 points which would be our highest points in the Premier League from 38 games (our highest currently is 64 in 09/10, we got 74 points in 92/93 but played 42 games). 

 

Much of this will of course depend on our European games. Listening to Unai's press conferences, it sounds to me the Premier League is priority and Europa Conference is 2nd priority. I am not a fly on the wall but I personally think the owners want to reach the Champions League this season to really elevate the club to the next level which is music to my ears because I think that is the key to us being successful (trophies can come later). If we can get to 70 points there is a very good chance we finish top 5 which may be enough to qualify.

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