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Villa’s Race for Europe 22/23


messi11

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5 minutes ago, duke313 said:

Our best chance to get into Europe this season is to win a cup.  I think it will be extremely unlikely we finish top 7 unless we go on an amazing run of form.

But the like of West Ham, Leicester and Wolves seems to have stagnated or regressed, Newcastle and Brighton have slipped in there, so you never know.

We absolutely have the depth to fight for league, FA and league cup (if we get past Man Utd) too I believe 

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1 minute ago, MSvillain said:

We absolutely have the depth to fight for league, FA and league cup (if we get past Man Utd) too I believe 

Calm down.  😉  One swallow a summer does not make.

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4 minutes ago, allani said:

Calm down.  😉  One swallow a summer does not make.

If we can get to the League Cup final with the squad that finished 17th, we can get to it with this squad. Except now we have a cup specialist manager in charge.  

Hopefully we can dump the Mancs out on Thursday.

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On 07/11/2022 at 01:48, VillaChris said:

Our home form is actually really good. Terrible performances but solid wins v Everton and Southampton, a draw v Man. City which is pretty much a win given their superiority to all the league (and we were losing that), today was historic in its own way and we smashed Brentford. When you think of all those chances we missed v Chelsea really the only poor one was West Ham and even that was a tight margin game when we could've been leading if the corner had stayed in.

4 wins from first 7 at home so we've actually got a realistic chance of hitting double figure home wins in prem for first time since 07/08 season. Just 6 goals conceded is very good going aswell, that is actually top 6/7 stats.

Just a shame we don't really look like grinding out an away win anytime soon although I'm hopeful a manager of Emery's calibre will change that and we'll get some clean sheets as a building block.

Would be fine with a 0-0 at Brighton next week.

On the plus side - the way we set up against Utd was closer to the formation that Emery used at Villareal away from home and in the Champions League rather than their home league matches.  So maybe there is reason for optimism.

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3 hours ago, duke313 said:

Our best chance to get into Europe this season is to win a cup.  I think it will be extremely unlikely we finish top 7 unless we go on an amazing run of form.

But the like of West Ham, Leicester and Wolves seems to have stagnated or regressed, Newcastle and Brighton have slipped in there, so you never know.

Top 10 is certainly a very realistic target now given Leicester, Wolves and West Ham have occupied the 6-9th places over last three years so there's a void even with Leicester picking up.

If we can get a win on Sunday then 50 points will also became realistic, that would put us at 9th I reckon this season.

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@messi11

Isnt the League "race for Europe" only top 5? (unless one of them also win the FA and/or Carabao Cup).

  • PL Top 4 Champ League.
  • PL 5th Europa League.
  • FA Cup Winners - Europa League (can go to league if one of the top 5 win it)
  • Carabao Cup Winners - Europa Conference League (does this go to the league if one of the top 5 win it?)
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5 minutes ago, MaVilla said:

@messi11

Isnt the League "race for Europe" only top 5? (unless one of them also win the FA and/or Carabao Cup).

  • PL Top 4 Champ League.
  • PL 5th Europa League.
  • FA Cup Winners - Europa League (can go to league if one of the top 5 win it)
  • Carabao Cup Winners - Europa Conference League (does this go to the league if one of the top 5 win it?)

Yes technically, but it’s pretty much always goes down to 7th, because one of the top 5  usually win both cups (or wins a Euro cup which also adds an extra league slot).

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3 minutes ago, ender4 said:

Yes technically, but it’s pretty much always goes down to 7th, because one of the top 5  usually win both cups (or wins a Euro cup which also adds an extra league slot).

lets hop this happens....

If an English team wins the Champ League, the Europa League and the Europa Conference.....is that 3 additional spaces?!

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27 minutes ago, MaVilla said:

@messi11

Isnt the League "race for Europe" only top 5? (unless one of them also win the FA and/or Carabao Cup).

  • PL Top 4 Champ League.
  • PL 5th Europa League.
  • FA Cup Winners - Europa League (can go to league if one of the top 5 win it)
  • Carabao Cup Winners - Europa Conference League (does this go to the league if one of the top 5 win it?)

There's been 8 seasons since the rules changed so that the cup places get passed to best place league side rather than the cup runners up. In that time only 1 of 16 cup qualification places has gone to a side outside the top 7 (Arsenal finished 8th and won FA Cup in 19/20 season)

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18 minutes ago, tomsky_11 said:

There's been 8 seasons since the rules changed so that the cup places get passed to best place league side rather than the cup runners up. In that time only 1 of 16 cup qualification places has gone to a side outside the top 7 (Arsenal finished 8th and won FA Cup in 19/20 season)

Yes and wasn't it typical Villa it happened the year we got to the Cup Final. I am sure Hull the year before qualified for it.

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13 minutes ago, MaVilla said:

lets hop this happens....

If an English team wins the Champ League, the Europa League and the Europa Conference.....is that 3 additional spaces?!

Only if they aren’t qualified.

If Liverpool end up as 5th and wins the Champions League they go into the Champions League for next season as the 5th English team, the Europe League spot goes to the 6th PL place.

However, if ManU is 6th and wins Europa League, they also goes into CL, but since max 5 team can qualify for CL, the Europe League spot goes to 4th PL place.

If West Ham wins the Conference League and are placed in the poison that would have qualified for Conference League, they will be in Europa League, and the Conference League spot will go to the team below them. There could 

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2 minutes ago, The Fun Factory said:

Yes and wasn't it typical Villa it happened the year we got to the Cup Final. I am sure Hull the year before qualified for it.

Yep correct. To rub it in a bit more, 12th place West Ham also qualified for Europa league that season through fair play ranking.

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5 minutes ago, tomsky_11 said:

Yep correct. To rub it in a bit more, 12th place West Ham also qualified for Europa league that season through fair play ranking.

We also  came 2nd in 92/93 when 1st only got CL, and 4th in 95/96 when 1-2 got CL. In 03/04 we came 6th and didn't get a UEFA cup spot and again in 07/08 we had to qualify via the Intertoto Cup (remember that?). 

The old rules made random clubs more likely to play in Europe like Milwall in 2004. Then maybe perhaps it's for the best.

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43 minutes ago, Demitri_C said:

One step at a time. Lets get top half and then see. I think we shouldnt ahve a expectation of Europe just aim to improve on next year then anything extra is a welcome bonus

No.

Emery and players should take one game at a time.

Fans are allowed to get carried away.

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I think European football would be a bit of a stretch this season. Would be delighted with a top ten finish.

Having said that, every season since 2018/19, the difference between 7th* and 10th has been between 3 and 5 points. This suggests to me that if we find ourselves 10th at the end of the season, qualifying for Europe wouldn’t have been that far out of the question.

Although it’s worth noting that the six seasons prior to 2018/19, the point difference between 7th and 10th ranged from 10 to 16 points.

 

*As mentioned previously, there were some seasons among those when 7th wasn’t guaranteed European qualification.

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