Relegation Avoidance Thread

[OutByEaster?]

48 minutes ago, Tayls said:

…..we can easily still drop, can’t we? 

Not easily, no.

I think we've a very good chance of finishing ahead of Southampton - I'm not sure how worried you are for them, but they're on the same points we are, with a worse goal difference and having played two more games than us. They've got three games left, one of those is Liverpool, which they'll lose, one is Leicester and the other is Brentford who are also below us having played a game more with a worse goal difference. 

Brentford are interesting actually - they've got Man Utd next, but then they play three of the other four teams in the relegation fight - for us to go down, I think we'd be looking for them to beat United then lose to Everton, Southampton and Leeds, because those three would all need the three points from those games if they wanted to catch us.

Burnley would have to catch us too, they're six points back with four games left , they could do that by beating us twice I guess, but I can't see that happening - not least because if they win the first one, there's every chance they wouldn't have much to play for by the time they got to the second one.They've got Spurs and Newcastle other than us.

So then you get to the two who would face the biggest challenge, firstly Leeds, six points behind us with four to play - with Arsenal and Chelsea their next two - their other two games aren't too bad and they could come out with seven points I guess - unlikely but possible - and they'd be beating Brentford.

And finally Everton - five games left, same as us, but eight points back and with a goal difference that's 18 goals worse than ours is - they'll need to win three of those games to catch us - Leicester (a), Watford (a), Brentford (h), Palace (h) and Arsenal (a ) - again it's possible that they could get three wins I guess, but unlikely.

So there are two teams in Leeds and Everton that will both have to do unlikely things to catch us, and not only are those things unlikely they'll both need to happen. On top of those two, there's a buffer of three teams, one of whom, Brentford, will have to achieve some unlikely results in order to facilitate the two unlikely things that need to happen for Everton and Leeds to catch us and one of whom would have to beat us twice.

Oh, and there's one more team to take into account - us. I based all of that on us not scoring another point this season - not one - and if we do that, it's unlikely we'll go down, perhaps very unlikely - I don't think we'll score none. I don't think we'll beat Liverpool or City, but I can see us getting between four and seven points from our other three.

If we get one win in our last five games, goal difference means that Leeds would need to go undefeated against Arsenal, Chelsea, Brighton and Brentford and win three of those games.

So, yes, we can still drop, it's possible - just - but easily?

Nah.

[WallisFrizz]

2 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said:

Not easily, no.

I think we've a very good chance of finishing ahead of Southampton - I'm not sure how worried you are for them, but they're on the same points we are, with a worse goal difference and having played two more games than us. They've got three games left, one of those is Liverpool, which they'll lose, one is Leicester and the other is Brentford who are also below us having played a game more with a worse goal difference. 

Brentford are interesting actually - they've got Man Utd next, but then they play three of the other four teams in the relegation fight - for us to go down, I think we'd be looking for them to beat United then lose to Everton, Southampton and Leeds, because those three would all need the three points from those games if they wanted to catch us.

Burnley would have to catch us too, they're six points back with four games left , they could do that by beating us twice I guess, but I can't see that happening - not least because if they win the first one, there's every chance they wouldn't have much to play for by the time they got to the second one.They've got Spurs and Newcastle other than us.

So then you get to the two who would face the biggest challenge, firstly Leeds, six points behind us with four to play - with Arsenal and Chelsea their next two - their other two games aren't too bad and they could come out with seven points I guess - unlikely but possible - and they'd be beating Brentford.

And finally Everton - five games left, same as us, but eight points back and with a goal difference that's 18 goals worse than ours is - they'll need to win three of those games to catch us - Leicester (a), Watford (a), Brentford (h), Palace (h) and Arsenal (a ) - again it's possible that they could get three wins I guess, but unlikely.

So there are two teams in Leeds and Everton that will both have to do unlikely things to catch us, and not only are those things unlikely they'll both need to happen. On top of those two, there's a buffer of three teams, one of whom, Brentford, will have to achieve some unlikely results in order to facilitate the two unlikely things that need to happen for Everton and Leeds to catch us and one of whom would have to beat us twice.

Oh, and there's one more team to take into account - us. I based all of that on us not scoring another point this season - not one - and if we do that, it's unlikely we'll go down, perhaps very unlikely - I don't think we'll score none. I don't think we'll beat Liverpool or City, but I can see us getting between four and seven points from our other three.

If we get one win in our last five games, goal difference means that Leeds would need to go undefeated against Arsenal, Chelsea, Brighton and Brentford and win three of those games.

So, yes, we can still drop, it's possible - just - but easily?

Nah.

Fair play, you put a lot of work into that post. No idea how accurate but I choose to accept every word and look forward to next season in the PL (never really too worried anyway).

[Mantis]

1 hour ago, Tayls said:

…..we can easily still drop, can’t we? 

Why are you doing this again? You don't even believe it?

[omariqy]

Burnley have had their good run now. They won’t beat us twice. 

[Tayls]

1 hour ago, Mantis said:

Why are you doing this again? You don't even believe it?

I don’t believe it, no. But, I looked at the table earlier and had a small panic. 

You just know we are going to make it really difficult for ourselves at some point over these next few weeks. It’s never easy supporting the Villa.  

[Mantis]

19 minutes ago, Tayls said:

I don’t believe it, no. But, I looked at the table earlier and had a small panic. 

You just know we are going to make it really difficult for ourselves at some point over these next few weeks. It’s never easy supporting the Villa.  

There's a reason why the bookies have us at 1000/1 to go down.

[briny_ear]

1 hour ago, OutByEaster? said:

Not easily, no.

I think we've a very good chance of finishing ahead of Southampton - I'm not sure how worried you are for them, but they're on the same points we are, with a worse goal difference and having played two more games than us. They've got three games left, one of those is Liverpool, which they'll lose, one is Leicester and the other is Brentford who are also below us having played a game more with a worse goal difference. 

Brentford are interesting actually - they've got Man Utd next, but then they play three of the other four teams in the relegation fight - for us to go down, I think we'd be looking for them to beat United then lose to Everton, Southampton and Leeds, because those three would all need the three points from those games if they wanted to catch us.

Burnley would have to catch us too, they're six points back with four games left , they could do that by beating us twice I guess, but I can't see that happening - not least because if they win the first one, there's every chance they wouldn't have much to play for by the time they got to the second one.They've got Spurs and Newcastle other than us.

So then you get to the two who would face the biggest challenge, firstly Leeds, six points behind us with four to play - with Arsenal and Chelsea their next two - their other two games aren't too bad and they could come out with seven points I guess - unlikely but possible - and they'd be beating Brentford.

And finally Everton - five games left, same as us, but eight points back and with a goal difference that's 18 goals worse than ours is - they'll need to win three of those games to catch us - Leicester (a), Watford (a), Brentford (h), Palace (h) and Arsenal (a ) - again it's possible that they could get three wins I guess, but unlikely.

So there are two teams in Leeds and Everton that will both have to do unlikely things to catch us, and not only are those things unlikely they'll both need to happen. On top of those two, there's a buffer of three teams, one of whom, Brentford, will have to achieve some unlikely results in order to facilitate the two unlikely things that need to happen for Everton and Leeds to catch us and one of whom would have to beat us twice.

Oh, and there's one more team to take into account - us. I based all of that on us not scoring another point this season - not one - and if we do that, it's unlikely we'll go down, perhaps very unlikely - I don't think we'll score none. I don't think we'll beat Liverpool or City, but I can see us getting between four and seven points from our other three.

If we get one win in our last five games, goal difference means that Leeds would need to go undefeated against Arsenal, Chelsea, Brighton and Brentford and win three of those games.

So, yes, we can still drop, it's possible - just - but easily?

Nah.

Thank you for doing this. I contemplated doing a similar post earlier in the week but the decided I just couldn’t’ t be arsed exactly because of the factors you have set out so thoroughly here. There are some posters who seem determined we are going to be relegated but they are almost certainly heading for disappointment. Or maybe they are just trolling for the sake of it.

Whatever, you have shown comprehensively how hard it would be for us to achieve their dream of relegation..

[briny_ear]

2 hours ago, Zatman said:

We should take minimum 4 points from Burnley. Anything less is shocking 

I think you may be too easily shocked. This is premier league football and they are fighting for their lives. 

This year they have taken points from Arsenal, Man U, Spurs, West Ham, Southampton and Wolves.

How come we are now so high and mighty?

[picicata]

9 hours ago, Zatman said:

We should take minimum 4 points from Burnley. Anything less is shocking 

Shocking? Not really, we only got one point from them last season over the two games and I don't think our first season back was much better. As it is I think we will lose to them this weekend, so that a few people in this thread can get all sweaty, but then beat them at home 

If I didn't know better I'd say you're setting the bar higher than you think we will reach so that you can be 'shocked'

[Steero113]

10 hours ago, OutByEaster? said:

Not easily, no.

I think we've a very good chance of finishing ahead of Southampton - I'm not sure how worried you are for them, but they're on the same points we are, with a worse goal difference and having played two more games than us. They've got three games left, one of those is Liverpool, which they'll lose, one is Leicester and the other is Brentford who are also below us having played a game more with a worse goal difference. 

Brentford are interesting actually - they've got Man Utd next, but then they play three of the other four teams in the relegation fight - for us to go down, I think we'd be looking for them to beat United then lose to Everton, Southampton and Leeds, because those three would all need the three points from those games if they wanted to catch us.

Burnley would have to catch us too, they're six points back with four games left , they could do that by beating us twice I guess, but I can't see that happening - not least because if they win the first one, there's every chance they wouldn't have much to play for by the time they got to the second one.They've got Spurs and Newcastle other than us.

So then you get to the two who would face the biggest challenge, firstly Leeds, six points behind us with four to play - with Arsenal and Chelsea their next two - their other two games aren't too bad and they could come out with seven points I guess - unlikely but possible - and they'd be beating Brentford.

And finally Everton - five games left, same as us, but eight points back and with a goal difference that's 18 goals worse than ours is - they'll need to win three of those games to catch us - Leicester (a), Watford (a), Brentford (h), Palace (h) and Arsenal (a ) - again it's possible that they could get three wins I guess, but unlikely.

So there are two teams in Leeds and Everton that will both have to do unlikely things to catch us, and not only are those things unlikely they'll both need to happen. On top of those two, there's a buffer of three teams, one of whom, Brentford, will have to achieve some unlikely results in order to facilitate the two unlikely things that need to happen for Everton and Leeds to catch us and one of whom would have to beat us twice.

Oh, and there's one more team to take into account - us. I based all of that on us not scoring another point this season - not one - and if we do that, it's unlikely we'll go down, perhaps very unlikely - I don't think we'll score none. I don't think we'll beat Liverpool or City, but I can see us getting between four and seven points from our other three.

If we get one win in our last five games, goal difference means that Leeds would need to go undefeated against Arsenal, Chelsea, Brighton and Brentford and win three of those games.

So, yes, we can still drop, it's possible - just - but easily?

Nah.

If Everton and Burnley get to 40 points my biggest worry is actually for Southampton. 

I can see them picking up nothing from their last 3. 

[IrishVilla10]

2 minutes ago, Steero113 said:

If Everton and Burnley get to 40 points my biggest worry is actually for Southampton. 

I can see them picking up nothing from their last 3. 

I think Leeds are down

[Zatman]

7 minutes ago, Steero113 said:

If Everton and Burnley get to 40 points my biggest worry is actually for Southampton. 

I can see them picking up nothing from their last 3. 

I forgot I bet on Southampton for relegation in pre season. Let it happen

[VillaParkAvenue]

1 hour ago, Zatman said:

I forgot I bet on Southampton for relegation in pre season. Let it happen

Southampton are "only" at 65/1 to go down now. Don't think they'll go down but if they did, that could be the worst way of doing it. Being caught by surprise when you've already checked out mentally.

[Mantis]

11 hours ago, briny_ear said:

I think you may be too easily shocked. This is premier league football and they are fighting for their lives. 

This year they have taken points from Arsenal, Man U, Spurs, West Ham, Southampton and Wolves.

How come we are now so high and mighty?

If anything I think in general people on here have been underrating our chances against Burnley. Of course I wouldn't at all be surprised if we got 0/1 point from them, but most seem to have already factored in that we'll lose to them at least once which might not necessarily be the case.

[Sulberto21]

On 01/05/2022 at 10:31, nick76 said:

The other games are Liverpool and Man City and you expect a point or three? 

6.

[Sulberto21]

I’d love if it we get 15 points. 
 

[Zatman]

4 hours ago, picicata said:

Shocking? Not really, we only got one point from them last season over the two games and I don't think our first season back was much better. As it is I think we will lose to them this weekend, so that a few people in this thread can get all sweaty, but then beat them at home 

If I didn't know better I'd say you're setting the bar higher than you think we will reach so that you can be 'shocked'

We are 6 points ahead of Burnley with a superior goal difference. We should be targetting 4 points from teams like this regardless of how Burnley are currently playing. 

We have already given 6 points to Watford, 4 to Brentford, 3 to Newcastle when in the bottom 3

These are the teams that we should have been aiming to do the double over. Its already unacceptable

[picicata]

1 minute ago, Zatman said:

We are 6 points ahead of Burnley with a superior goal difference. We should be targetting 4 points from teams like this regardless of how Burnley are currently playing. 

We have already given 6 points to Watford, 4 to Brentford, 3 to Newcastle when in the bottom 3

These are the teams that we should have been aiming to do the double over. Its already unacceptable

I agree we should be aiming for six points but certainly won't be shocked at less.

The results you've quoted show that we are not strong enough against weak opposition to expect, or be surprised, if we don't meet expectations.

[messi11]

Not sure why you all worried for. We are not going down 

[brommy]

13 minutes ago, Zatman said:

We are 6 points ahead of Burnley with a superior goal difference. We should be targetting 4 points from teams like this regardless of how Burnley are currently playing. 

We have already given 6 points to Watford, 4 to Brentford, 3 to Newcastle when in the bottom 3

These are the teams that we should have been aiming to do the double over. Its already unacceptable

Villa will be targeting 4 (or even 6) points from the Burnley games, so that’s your desire granted. I think comments like ‘shocking’ or ‘unacceptable’ if we don’t beat Burnley at least once, are hyperbole. They’re clearly on form and fighting for their PL survival and won’t be the first relegation threaten team to unexpectedly beat teams that should beat them. Yesterday’s Everton 1 Chelsea 0 springs to mind, and Everton aren’t even a team on form, like Burnley are.

Less than 3 points from the Burnley games would be very disappointing but not shocking or unacceptable (whatever the connotations of unacceptable are?).