The AVFC FFP thread

[The Fun Factory]

Well this thread is a bit depressing after last week I thought we had actually turned a small profit. 

[KMitch]

I look at it like this:

• There is no way that Emery would come to Villa if there wasn't significant money to spend rebuilding the squad.
• Villa journalists Preece & Evans (Yeah, I know...) are already writing about a reportedly record breaking transfer spend this summer
• Honestly, nobody outside of the club knows what these figures mean and how much we can spend this summer... The VT accounting nerds can't even come to a consensus over the past 2 pages...  Are we broke or can we spend up to 300 million this summer?  

I'm just going to sit back, relax, and enjoy the ride.  

[CVByrne]

9 minutes ago, MrBlack said:

I know this... Did you see the PL reject Newcastle's latest inflated sleeve sponsorship deal? Nope, me neither. 

It is a fact they will get deals we can't, and it won't be because of our fan base size or recent achievements, or and reasonable factor. It will be the affiliation their owners have with the companies in question. 

They won't get deals that are much higher than we can get as the PL will refuse them. So what Newcastle are doing is not going down the route of affiliated sponsors as they know the PL can stop them.

Newcastle had 21-22 Turnover of £179m that's the same as we have

[Nigel]

51 minutes ago, CVByrne said:

Eh, no 2019 and 2020 were bad accounts for us. 2021 was a bit better but still FFP loss of 15m approx. 2022 is FFP profit about £50m and 2023 will be about 5 to 10m profit.

So we'll be going into the summer with 3 year historic FFP accounts of +£40m which is very healthy indeed. We'll have a loss making year roll off in 2024 and the spending this summer rolling on.

We have lots of headroom for Emery this summer. Lots of it

So what you are saying is we have loads of wiggle room? How come the previous poster has us needing to sell players then?

I'm so confused!

[CVByrne]

3 minutes ago, KMitch said:

I look at it like this:

• There is no way that Emery would come to Villa if there wasn't significant money to spend rebuilding the squad.
• Villa journalists Preece & Evans (Yeah, I know...) are already writing about a reportedly record breaking transfer spend this summer
• Honestly, nobody outside of the club knows what these figures mean and how much we can spend this summer... The VT accounting nerds can't even come to a consensus over the past 2 pages...  Are we broke or can we spend up to 300 million this summer?  

I'm just going to sit back, relax, and enjoy the ride.  

We have massive headroom for investment this summer. Like £150m can be spent on new players and 25-30m in profit from player sales

[Czarnikjak]

2 minutes ago, CVByrne said:

They won't get deals that are much higher than we can get as the PL will refuse them. So what Newcastle are doing is not going down the route of affiliated sponsors as they know the PL can stop them.

Newcastle had 21-22 Turnover of £179m that's the same as we have

They did. Their sleeve sponsor is PIF linked noon.com. They're paying them £7.5m per year, while a going rate for club like ours is £2m. Not sure who approved it, but it went through 

 

[CVByrne]

1 minute ago, Czarnikjak said:

They did. Their sleeve sponsor is PIF linked noon.com. They're paying them £7.5m per year, while a going rate for club like ours is £2m. Not sure who approved it, but it went through 

I assume they are benchmarking them against the Big Six maybe. 

[HeyAnty]

9 minutes ago, KMitch said:

I look at it like this:

• There is no way that Emery would come to Villa if there wasn't significant money to spend rebuilding the squad.
• Villa journalists Preece & Evans (Yeah, I know...) are already writing about a reportedly record breaking transfer spend this summer
• Honestly, nobody outside of the club knows what these figures mean and how much we can spend this summer... The VT accounting nerds can't even come to a consensus over the past 2 pages...  Are we broke or can we spend up to 300 million this summer?  

I'm just going to sit back, relax, and enjoy the ride.  

I agree, especially point 1.  In saying that, our owners arent going to keep pumping 100’s of millions in, nor should we as Villa fans expect them to.  
 

If i was a gambling man, id be pretty sure Martinez will be gone in summer for around 50-60m.  We will push on then, similar to Grealish money we obtained.

Edited March 6, 2023 by HeyAnty

[CVByrne]

Newcastle made 29m from commercial revenue last season, we made 39m

[paul514]

29 minutes ago, KMitch said:

I look at it like this:

• There is no way that Emery would come to Villa if there wasn't significant money to spend rebuilding the squad.
• Villa journalists Preece & Evans (Yeah, I know...) are already writing about a reportedly record breaking transfer spend this summer
• Honestly, nobody outside of the club knows what these figures mean and how much we can spend this summer... The VT accounting nerds can't even come to a consensus over the past 2 pages...  Are we broke or can we spend up to 300 million this summer?  

I'm just going to sit back, relax, and enjoy the ride.  

We can spend a lot this summer, regardless what is being said.

[tomsky_11]

55 minutes ago, CVByrne said:

Newcastle made 29m from commercial revenue last season, we made 39m

How much of theirs is loans? Because over £9M of ours is.

Edited March 6, 2023 by tomsky_11

[Rich192]

I’m pretty sure that the only signings in the current financial year are Olsen, Dendoncker, Moreno and Duran, which is about £40m (plus a couple of relatively small loan fees for Augustinsson and Bednarek). I think Diego Carlos and Coutinho counted towards FY22, as both were announced in May if I recall correctly, and tally up with what’s been recorded.

Offsetting the sales this financial year, £15m for Chukwuemeka, £12m for Targett and Ings, £3m for Trezeguet and El-Ghazi, and we’re about broken even in terms of net spend for the year. Net spend is obviously different to FFP, but this goes to show how much better they’re going to look for FY23. Whether we decide to do what we did last year and get some signings in early to include in this years figures, I’m not sure. 
 

Rest assured though, there is significant FFP headroom for a major window this summer. 

Edited March 6, 2023 by Rich192

[MrBlack]

2 minutes ago, Rich192 said:

I’m pretty sure that the only signings in the current financial year are Olsen, Dendoncker, Moreno and Duran, which is about £40m (plus a couple of relatively small loan fees for Augustinsson and Bednarek). I think Diego Carlos and Coutinho counted towards FY22, as both were announced in May if I recall correctly, and tally up with what’s been recorded.

Offsetting the sales this financial year, £15m for Chukwuemeka, £12m for Targett and Ings, £3m for Trezeguet and El-Ghazi, and we’re about broken even in terms of net spend for the year. Net spend is obviously different to FFP, but this goes to show how much better they’re going to look for FY23. Whether we decide to do what we did last year and get some signings in early to include in this years figures, I’m not sure. 
 

Rest assured though, there is significant FFP headroom for a major window this summer. 

I'd forgot Targett will be in the 22/23 FY figures.  Guess because they had him for 6 months prior to signing him that I'd associated it with the one before. 

Good news though and factoring it all in we probably don't need to sell anyone for huge sums this summer. But, if we don't, it does mean we'll need to sell someone for even more the following season.

A big sale would make sense this summer.  If only to keep the future FFP calculations easier, rather than to let us spend more this summer.

But i'd be very wary of it being Martinez.  Its such a key position, he's such a massive figure,  and getting the replacement right that doesn't set us back would be a huge risk. Get it wrong and we drop 4-5 places and more than offset the income we'll get from selling him.  Makes more sense to try and sell a McGinn for 15-20m. If we can get that for him.. 

Going to be a big summer of movements whatever happens. 

[CVByrne]

1 hour ago, Rich192 said:

I’m pretty sure that the only signings in the current financial year are Olsen, Dendoncker, Moreno and Duran, which is about £40m (plus a couple of relatively small loan fees for Augustinsson and Bednarek). I think Diego Carlos and Coutinho counted towards FY22, as both were announced in May if I recall correctly, and tally up with what’s been recorded.

Offsetting the sales this financial year, £15m for Chukwuemeka, £12m for Targett and Ings, £3m for Trezeguet and El-Ghazi, and we’re about broken even in terms of net spend for the year. Net spend is obviously different to FFP, but this goes to show how much better they’re going to look for FY23. Whether we decide to do what we did last year and get some signings in early to include in this years figures, I’m not sure. 
 

Rest assured though, there is significant FFP headroom for a major window this summer. 

It's in our accounts. We spent 63.4m. So Dendoncker, Carlos, Duran, Moreno, maybe Olsen I think are the signings. Then the 49.7m we brought in was Chuk, Targett, AEG, Trez & Ings

Edited March 6, 2023 by CVByrne

[tomsky_11]

3 hours ago, CVByrne said:

Yes, our broadcast revenue should rise as we'll finish higher up table this season. Hopefully our commercial revenue increases by 5-10m too. New sponsors should help us on increasing it. 

Broadcast could be a decent increase in 22/23. It's about £2.5M per place on current UK deal which looks to have been unchanged for 2022-25. Plus it looks like the international right sold for maybe a 25% increase, which I think could be an additional £10M+ on it's own. Could be talking an extra £20M here. Castore was new in 22/23. Cazoo replaced for 23/24 which I assume much be financially worthwhile given the backlash over who that sponsor is. On the flip side, I'm not sure how sustainable the £9M loan income is per season. And amortisation increases alone possibly wipe out the extra broadcast money before we get to other potential cost increases.

[Frodo]

For the love of Paul Mcgrath podcast on YouTube at 5pm tonight explaining our finances with Kieran Maguire so that should go along way to explaining abit more to us regards our finances. Guessing will be on Spotify tomorrow also as he posts on both platforms 

[tomsky_11]

I reckon 22/23 for FFP could to look something like the following:

Losses of £23M for the first two years would allow for £82M of adjusted losses in 23/24. Without much else changing and with no player sales we wouldn't be far off that figure. But I don't see us not selling at all and I could easily see another £10-15M of amortisation falling away without much effort, eg. end of contracts, contract renewals.

So I think there's room for this summer to be big without getting into immediate trouble. I think this summer has to be reasonably big because its the last year for FFP including the Grealish contribution.

[Czarnikjak]

3 minutes ago, tomsky_11 said:

I reckon 22/23 for FFP could to look something like the following:

Losses of £23M for the first two years would allow for £82M of adjusted losses in 23/24. Without much else changing and with no player sales we wouldn't be far off that figure. But I don't see us not selling at all and I could easily see another £10-15M of amortisation falling away without much effort, eg. end of contracts, contract renewals.

So I think there's room for this summer to be big without getting into immediate trouble. I think this summer has to be reasonably big because its the last year for FFP including the Grealish contribution.

Where is the £203m gone? Are you anywhere near figuring it out for last season?

[tomsky_11]

7 minutes ago, Czarnikjak said:

Where is the £203m gone? Are you anywhere near figuring it out for last season?

Not sure. I imagine more luck than anything that I seemed to get the prior year to reconcile and I think there are too many unknowns for us to get a decent understanding of it from outside:

- No definite figures for individual transfer fees

- No idea on agents fees or other fees that might be capitalised on top of the above

- No idea on the make up of the unrecognised conditional fees (about £51M end of 20/21) and whether any have been capitalised in 21/22 relating to previous transfers (figure went up to £60M for end of 21/22).

 

 

[ender4]

1 hour ago, CVByrne said:

It's in our accounts. We spent 63.4m. So Dendoncker, Carlos, Duran, Moreno, maybe Olsen I think are the signings. Then the 49.7m we brought in was Chuk, Targett, AEG, Trez & Ings

They are in 22/23 year.   

The accounts just published are for 21/22 so won't include Duran & Moreno. Same with Chuk and Ings, both in current year.