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The AVFC FFP thread


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18 minutes ago, Czarnikjak said:

Would need to estimate it to be sure.

Based on latest published accounts for last season, add potential increase in Revenue, take away £100m from JG sale, add any  profit on player sales this season (mainly Chuck) and adjust wages/amortisation changes.

Anyone up to the task? 😊

Back of a napkin calculation tells me we gonna be worse off, but still well within limits.

I think I tried something earlier in the thread. 

Let's just assume an income of 210m for season up ~30 from last. 

Player sales - Chuk, Trez, AEG, Ings. I think that'll be ~25 in profit

Players signed. Diego Carlos 26m, Coutinho 17m, Dendoncker 13m, Moreno 14m and Duran 14m, Olsen 2m. Kamara on free

so -6.5, 4.25, 3.25, 1.5, 1.4, 0.5 = 17.5m in new signing amortisation (assume half a season of Ings offsets the additional half season of Digne). 

So now we have wages. We've had a few go out on loan - Sanson, Traore, Nakamba which should help a little bit. But overall wages surely rise 

Lets say additional 6months of Coutinho = 3.25m, full season Kamara = 7m, Dendoncker = 3.5m, Carlos 2.6m (assume insurance covers half of his 5.2m). Moreno / Duran say 1.5m each. 

So wages say + 19.3m and we save say 10m on loans and players who left (Targett etc..). So wages up ~10m

So Income up 30m, player sales 25m, new amortisation 17.5m, wages up 10m. So that's +27.5m in this years accounts from last years. 

We'll also be helped too by new contracts helping our amortisation spread with Martinez and Cash (signed 2nd half of last season) and Mings and hopefully Watkins this season. Gives us a 5m say bump. So we're looking at say +32.5m

So we lose the one off Jack 97m we gain 32m so we'd be at about -40m for the season in FFP calcs. So an all profit player sale (like Davis) before June would be helpful. 

Our 3 year FFP would be running at -40m to end of this season of the available 105 limit 

 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, CVByrne said:

 

So we lose the one off Jack 97m we gain 32m so we'd be at about -40m for the season in FFP calcs. So an all profit player sale (like Davis) before June would be helpful. 

Our 3 year FFP would be running at -40m to end of this season of the available 105 limit 

 

 

 

Yes, this checks out with my estimations.

Basically we rely on continuous profit on player sales  to stay complaint (once grealish impact expires from calculations).

That profit must average at around £30-40m a season.

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19 minutes ago, Czarnikjak said:

Yes, this checks out with my estimations.

Basically we rely on continuous profit on player sales  to stay complaint (once grealish impact expires from calculations).

That profit must average at around £30-40m a season.

Yeah well we've got Archer who can make us a good amount if sold. Also we've amortised away nearly all of our key players (assuming we sign new deals for Watkins and next season for McGinn).

Martinez, Watkins, McGinn, Ramsey, Kamara, Mings, Luiz, Konsa all big profit if sold vs remaining book value. 

I think we've got some decent enough profit in Davis, Sanson, Traore & Nakamba who will all find clubs for sure this summer at profit. Combined 30 mil sale price and 13m left in amortisation. That's a 17m bump too.

This is all only sustainable if we can grow that commerical revenue. While making player sales commonplace each season. 

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2 hours ago, MaVilla said:

what date exactly does the 2019 season "disappear" from the 3 year cycle?, and the new 23/24 season come in, for accounting purposes?

end of June this year. I believe clubs submit their provisional accounts. 2019 rolls off and the 22/23 season rolls on.

As the PL have had very little teeth until their recent newly found cases against City and Everton. It's hard to know the exact mechanics. 

But assuming clubs like us want to comply we know by early July our situation. It shouldn't be too complicated for clubs to manage as salaries and amortisation are easy to track as in the majority of income as it's linked to finishing position, number of televised games and ongoing sponsorship. Plus recuring revenue from VP is mostly easy to project and measure.

 

Edited by CVByrne
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We should just ignore it we all know it’s a rigged system with Man City just ignoring it for years otherwise they wouldn’t be were they are now. I think if they could pump the money in Everton would have ignored it too the difference there is the isn’t any money left 

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15 hours ago, punkiller1981 said:

We should just ignore it we all know it’s a rigged system with Man City just ignoring it for years otherwise they wouldn’t be were they are now. I think if they could pump the money in Everton would have ignored it too the difference there is the isn’t any money left 

I think the big difference there mate is that we probably would get hammered. Unless we ever cement ourselves in the top 4, we have to accept that there are different rules for different clubs. 

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16 hours ago, CVByrne said:

Yeah well we've got Archer who can make us a good amount if sold. Also we've amortised away nearly all of our key players (assuming we sign new deals for Watkins and next season for McGinn).

Martinez, Watkins, McGinn, Ramsey, Kamara, Mings, Luiz, Konsa all big profit if sold vs remaining book value. 

I think we've got some decent enough profit in Davis, Sanson, Traore & Nakamba who will all find clubs for sure this summer at profit. Combined 30 mil sale price and 13m left in amortisation. That's a 17m bump too.

This is all only sustainable if we can grow that commerical revenue. While making player sales commonplace each season. 

I think we are likely going to see the departure of some of the starting XI over the next couple of years, the likes of Cash, Konsa, Bailey maybe even Ramsey could be sold, especially if we have to hit FFP targets.  No room for sentimentality. 

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12 minutes ago, duke313 said:

I think we are likely going to see the departure of some of the starting XI over the next couple of years, the likes of Cash, Konsa, Bailey maybe even Ramsey could be sold, especially if we have to hit FFP targets.  No room for sentimentality. 

I agree, but we do need that home grown talent so less likely to see Ramsey leave. I'm sure a starting player sold for what Alemany deems right price might happen often enough to keep the squad refreshed and the team motivated. 

I can see McGinn or Mings being sold next summer for example if there is 25m+ on the table. To buy such PL and international experience. If we then spend 45m on a new 26yo CB which is an upgrade on Mings. That's the kind of planning that is key. 

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im probably entirely wrong in my calculations, but trying to figure out the break even point for any players we may try to offload this summer!??!

  • Sanson - purchased for 15m, 3/5 years completed of contract - need to sell for 6m to break even for FFP?
  • Nakamba - purchased for 11m, 4/5 years completed of contract - need to sell for 2.2m to break even for FFP?
  • Davis - youth product, any fee is profit for FFP purposes?
  • Hause - purchased for 3m, however that initial contract and fee is probably zero on the books for accounting purposes now?, so any fee is profit for FFP?
  • Traore - purchased for 18m, 3/4 years completed of contract - need to sell for 4.5m to break even for FFP.

 

Other "possible" sales:

  • Digne - purchased for 25m, 1.5/4.5 years completed of contract, need to sell for 16.7m to break even for FFP?
  • Wesley - purchased for 22m, 4/5 years completed of contract - need to sell for 4.4m to break even for FFP? (although, would we have some medical write off capability if we terminated the last 12 months?)
  • Bailey - purchased for 25m, 2/4 years completed of contract, need to sell for 15m to break even for FFP?
  • Current Youth players (Archer, Philogene etc), all profit for FFP purposes.

 

I guess the other options are loan (& loan fees) to help bring in money and offset costs, if we cant sell some of them?....

 

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7 minutes ago, MaVilla said:

im probably entirely wrong in my calculations, but trying to figure out the break even point for any players we may try to offload this summer!??!

  • Sanson - purchased for 15m, 3/5 years completed of contract - need to sell for 6m to break even for FFP?
  • Nakamba - purchased for 11m, 4/5 years completed of contract - need to sell for 2.2m to break even for FFP?
  • Davis - youth product, any fee is profit for FFP purposes?
  • Hause - purchased for 3m, however that initial contract and fee is probably zero on the books for accounting purposes now?, so any fee is profit for FFP?
  • Traore - purchased for 18m, 3/4 years completed of contract - need to sell for 4.5m to break even for FFP.

 

Other "possible" sales:

  • Digne - purchased for 25m, 1.5/4.5 years completed of contract, need to sell for 16.7m to break even for FFP?
  • Wesley - purchased for 22m, 4/5 years completed of contract - need to sell for 4.4m to break even for FFP? (although, would we have some medical write off capability if we terminated the last 12 months?)
  • Bailey - purchased for 25m, 2/4 years completed of contract, need to sell for 15m to break even for FFP?
  • Current Youth players (Archer, Philogene etc), all profit for FFP purposes.

 

I guess the other options are loan (& loan fees) to help bring in money and offset costs, if we cant sell some of them?....

 

Yes, your calculations are generally correct...you might got some of the elapsed contracts lengths incorrectly...ie Sanson will be only 2.5 years this summer I think. Not 3 years. But that doesn't make huge amount of diffenrce.

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18 hours ago, punkiller1981 said:

We should just ignore it we all know it’s a rigged system with Man City just ignoring it for years otherwise they wouldn’t be were they are now. I think if they could pump the money in Everton would have ignored it too the difference there is the isn’t any money left 

Our owners don't just want to pump money in though, they want to build a sustainable business. They've invested a lot but so far it's been exactly that - an investment.

The value of the club is greater now than how much they bought it for + how much they've spent. They'll want that to always remain the case, if not increase the ROI. They are rich but they are rich for a reason - they are successful businessmen, not just custodians looking for a bit of romantic nourishment with their inheritance.

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50 minutes ago, Nigel said:

What about if we use the Everton valuation for our covid losses, that way we will have made more money than amazon.

Too late now. Accounts for that period were already audited and submitted 

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Heard on a Podcast earlier, think it was Villa view, Bardell & Greg Evans saying our net spend over the last 2 seasons was £40 million, which will set us up nicely to spend big in the summer if required. Sorry I have no science behind this, just excitement 

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23 hours ago, Czarnikjak said:

Yes, this checks out with my estimations.

Basically we rely on continuous profit on player sales  to stay complaint (once grealish impact expires from calculations).

That profit must average at around £30-40m a season.

That is basically the case for all teams outside the scum 6, perhaps excluding Newcastle. And eventually, you get caught out like Leceister or Southampton. Sorry for a downer on a Friday.

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4 hours ago, fightoffyour said:

Our owners don't just want to pump money in though, they want to build a sustainable business. They've invested a lot but so far it's been exactly that - an investment.

The value of the club is greater now than how much they bought it for + how much they've spent. They'll want that to always remain the case, if not increase the ROI. They are rich but they are rich for a reason - they are successful businessmen, not just custodians looking for a bit of romantic nourishment with their inheritance.

V-Sports is the business not just Villa.  They will be looking to make money across their portfolio of clubs not just one.  And the means of making money increases as the number of "businesses" within V-Sports increases.  For example sponsorship deals, shirt deals, marketing opportunities are likely to all get better when you are negotiating for multiple markets.  I think it will be a few years before the real benefits come to the fore but I think the network of clubs is going to provide some really interesting revenue / cost saving opportunities as well as the more obvious opportunities for loaning / transfering players through the pyramid of clubs within the network.

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21 minutes ago, The Fun Factory said:

That is basically the case for all teams outside the scum 6, perhaps excluding Newcastle. And eventually, you get caught out like Leceister or Southampton. Sorry for a downer on a Friday.

Leicester and Southampton aren't owned by NSWE and haven't exploited opportunities in terms of raising revenues to the extent that we seem to be.  I think NS and WE know that it is almost impossible to match the Sly 6 commercially on our own.  V-Sports gives them a platform to raise revenues in ways not available to other clubs.  Can we justify a £30m shirt sponsorship deal as Villa?  Probably not.  Can we justify a £30m slice of a £60m shirt sponsorship deal that covers 6 clubs, in 6 different markets in 3 or 4 different continents - that's a completely different question.  We get more, each of the other clubs get more than they could negotiate on their own and the company sponsoring "us" gets 6 markets thrown in to a single deal.

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33 minutes ago, Frodo said:

Heard on a Podcast earlier, think it was Villa view, Bardell & Greg Evans saying our net spend over the last 2 seasons was £40 million, which will set us up nicely to spend big in the summer if required. Sorry I have no science behind this, just excitement 

If you hear anyone mentioning "net spend" in relation to FFP, you can safely disregard everything they say. Basically they have no clue how football accounting works. 

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6 hours ago, MaVilla said:

im probably entirely wrong in my calculations, but trying to figure out the break even point for any players we may try to offload this summer!??!

  • Sanson - purchased for 15m, 3/5 years completed of contract - need to sell for 6m to break even for FFP?
  • Nakamba - purchased for 11m, 4/5 years completed of contract - need to sell for 2.2m to break even for FFP?
  • Davis - youth product, any fee is profit for FFP purposes?
  • Hause - purchased for 3m, however that initial contract and fee is probably zero on the books for accounting purposes now?, so any fee is profit for FFP?
  • Traore - purchased for 18m, 3/4 years completed of contract - need to sell for 4.5m to break even for FFP.

 

Other "possible" sales:

  • Digne - purchased for 25m, 1.5/4.5 years completed of contract, need to sell for 16.7m to break even for FFP?
  • Wesley - purchased for 22m, 4/5 years completed of contract - need to sell for 4.4m to break even for FFP? (although, would we have some medical write off capability if we terminated the last 12 months?)
  • Bailey - purchased for 25m, 2/4 years completed of contract, need to sell for 15m to break even for FFP?
  • Current Youth players (Archer, Philogene etc), all profit for FFP purposes.

 

I guess the other options are loan (& loan fees) to help bring in money and offset costs, if we cant sell some of them?....

 

Pretty good estimates. Bailey is break even 12.5m and Wesley we took impairment charge on (I'm 99% certain as we've amortised something early in accounts). 

Loan fee's would come in under player registration, so like transfer fees

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3 minutes ago, Czarnikjak said:

If you hear anyone mentioning "net spend" in relation to FFP, you can safely disregard everything they say. Basically they have no clue how football accounting works. 

Not many outside of the Premier League does, to be fair.  I don't believe anything I read with regards to FFP calculations by anyone on Twitter or VillaTalk because they don't know what they're talking about.

All I know is that Emery and Alemany wouldn't come to Villa if there wasn't significant funds available to build.  

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