Czechlad Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Biden has won Virginia and Arizona Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Ohio has been called for trump, which is not unexpected, but the margin is looking likely to be significantly wider than predicted, which could be bad news for demographically similar states wisconsin, michigan and pennsylvania. Biden cannot realistically win without winning at least the first two of those. He had big leads in polling averages of both states, but if he's performing much worse than predicted across the region then they may be very close. I think it's sensible to consider the outcome 50-50 at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheAuthority Posted November 4, 2020 VT Supporter Share Posted November 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said: Ohio has been called for trump, which is not unexpected, but the margin is looking likely to be significantly wider than predicted, which could be bad news for demographically similar states wisconsin, michigan and pennsylvania. Biden cannot realistically win without winning at least the first two of those. He had big leads in polling averages of both states, but if he's performing much worse than predicted across the region then they may be very close. I think it's sensible to consider the outcome 50-50 at this point. So many polls predicted a blowout. I honestly thought Biden would win easily (and I knew Trump would beat Hilary.) Pretty stunned it's so close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KenjiOgiwara Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Not surprised. Lets hope the election gods turn this Bidens way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sne Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 7 minutes ago, TheAuthority said: So many polls predicted a blowout. I honestly thought Biden would win easily (and I knew Trump would beat Hilary.) Pretty stunned it's so close. It's early doors, but it looks like national polls may have been too bullish on Biden. However, it's not a national race. State polls always predicted a closer race. Biden was favoured by tiny margins in a number of states in eg the 538 forecast, so a small polling error can produce the 'wrong' call in a number of states, even if they are not far out. For example, trump looks like he will take a narrow victory in North carolina when he was predicted a narrow defeat, which may be disappointing but is not a big polling error. I think Biden can be concerned about the size of the polling error in ohio though, because if that is replicated exactly in pennsylvania he could be in difficulties. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheAuthority Posted November 4, 2020 VT Supporter Share Posted November 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said: It's early doors, but it looks like national polls may have been too bullish on Biden. However, it's not a national race. State polls always predicted a closer race. Biden was favoured by tiny margins in a number of states in eg the 538 forecast, so a small polling error can produce the 'wrong' call in a number of states, even if they are not far out. For example, trump looks like he will take a narrow victory in North carolina when he was predicted a narrow defeat, which may be disappointing but is not a big polling error. I think Biden can be concerned about the size of the polling error in ohio though, because if that is replicated exactly in pennsylvania he could be in difficulties. Fox News just called Minnesota for Biden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Trump leading very comfortably in iowa, which is not a great sign re the rest of the Midwest, though it is much more rural and white than other states. The republican is clearly going to win in the senate race there as well, which makes it harder to see dems taking the chamber. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheAuthority Posted November 4, 2020 VT Supporter Share Posted November 4, 2020 Just now, HanoiVillan said: Trump leading very comfortably in iowa, which is not a great sign re the rest of the Midwest, though it is much more rural and white than other states. The republican is clearly going to win in the senate race there as well, which makes it harder to see dems taking the chamber. We got one from Colorado! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brumerican Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rodders Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 How th3 **** is it close? I **** despise Americans. The most retarded country on the planet bar none. Populated by millions of the most disgusting, deplorable ignorant awful human beings to have lived. Who looks at Trump and thinks ' yeah we like him'. Vile human scum.each and every single Trump voter to their core. Absolutely despicable..**** you America. **** nuke yourself out of existence please. It shouldn't even be remotely close. Pathetic nation.we are **** as a species. Just **** end now, world. There's no **** point when many millions of people are so constitutionally **** brain damaged. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheAuthority Posted November 4, 2020 VT Supporter Share Posted November 4, 2020 @Rodders You ok hun? xox 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sne Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 4 more years then, great... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 7 minutes ago, TheAuthority said: We got one from Colorado! So far, the net is one won in colorado and lost one in alabama (both expected). It looks likely that dems will win in arizona as well (also expected), but that would still only be a net gain of one when a net gain of three is needed, and several possibilities are now either gone or getting increasingly unlikely (texas, kansas, Montana, North Carolina, iowa) - haven't checked in on maine for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheAuthority Posted November 4, 2020 VT Supporter Share Posted November 4, 2020 Just now, HanoiVillan said: So far, the net is one won in colorado and lost one in alabama (both expected). It looks likely that dems will win in arizona as well (also expected), but that would still only be a net gain of one when a net gain of three is needed, and several possibilities are now either gone or getting increasingly unlikely (texas, kansas, Montana, North Carolina, iowa) - haven't checked in on maine for a while Collins projected to win - although she's 'concerned' Tw8t Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheAuthority Posted November 4, 2020 VT Supporter Share Posted November 4, 2020 Biden just made a speech that he's confident he's going to win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 1 minute ago, TheAuthority said: Collins projected to win - although she's 'concerned' Tw8t If she wins, dems don't have a path to winning the senate (or to be more accurate, their path would rely on winning the two run off elections in Georgia in January, in which they will be favoured to lose both) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheAuthority Posted November 4, 2020 VT Supporter Share Posted November 4, 2020 Just now, HanoiVillan said: If she wins, dems don't have a path to winning the senate (or to be more accurate, their path would rely on winning the two run off elections in Georgia in January, in which they will be favoured to lose both) Correct. The predicted Blue wave has dissolved into a dribble. Trump already stated that "the Dems are trying to steal the election." This may get horrible. I'm exhausted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 (edited) Trump’s tweet about the election being stolen from him and votes coming in after the polls closed seems to have been deleted. Edit: Reposted Edited November 4, 2020 by LondonLax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 I think he deleted it because he spelled 'polls' as 'Poles' in the initial tweet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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