Don_Simon Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 (edited) Arizona leaning blue according to ABC News. This is good news! Edited November 4, 2020 by Don_Simon 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StefanAVFC Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, Don_Simon said: Arizona leaning blue according to ABC News. This is good news! It's a good start. With Arizona, Wisconsin and Michigan flipped and nothing else, it's 269-269. Gulp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 23 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said: It's a good start. With Arizona, Wisconsin and Michigan flipped and nothing else, it's 269-269. Gulp. There's an increased possibility of this, by the looks of it (not a probability, and we won't know about pennsylvania tonight anyway), in which case you could imagine the election being excitingly decided in nebraska's second congressional district. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maqroll Posted November 4, 2020 Author Share Posted November 4, 2020 Looking like this won't be called either way tonight. Way too **** close for my liking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
His Name Is Death Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 (edited) I suppose this is another lesson in not underestimating the number of people who think Trump is "real" and "honest" and a good businessman (lol). Then there's the people who think he's the saviour of the world, which must factor into it as well. I've been amazed in the last few months at the number of British people who think this, so god knows how many Americans must do. Edited November 4, 2020 by His Name Is Death Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Yeah, I think we can safely chalk off the idea that this might be any kind of blow out or landslide. It's also looking possible that dems may win the White House but lose the senate (or more accurately fail to win it back) in which case Biden will be doing nothing massive in the next two years anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
il_serpente Posted November 4, 2020 VT Supporter Share Posted November 4, 2020 1 minute ago, HanoiVillan said: Yeah, I think we can safely chalk off the idea that this might be any kind of blow out or landslide. It's also looking possible that dems may win the White House but lose the senate (or more accurately fail to win it back) in which case Biden will be doing nothing massive in the next two years anyway. Except stopping the rot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheAuthority Posted November 4, 2020 VT Supporter Share Posted November 4, 2020 Biden behind in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin & Ohio. Balls. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Biden’s path for victory is narrowing. He needs to win one of Pennsylvania or Arizona. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheAuthority Posted November 4, 2020 VT Supporter Share Posted November 4, 2020 Just now, LondonLax said: Biden’s path for victory is narrowing. He needs to win one of Pennsylvania or Arizona. Looking like he may get Arizona - 11 Electoral votes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 (edited) Way too early to worry about PA, which looks like it will take a very long time to report results (as expected, because republicans won a court case preventing them from counting early ballots until today, and because there's a 3 day period after election day for mail ballots to arrive) so final results won't be known until Friday, though I guess it might be clear who is prohibitively ahead before then. PA might not matter if Biden wins arizona, michigan, wisconsin, and either ne2 or me2, which I hope we might learn the results from during the day Wednesday. Edited November 4, 2020 by HanoiVillan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 1 minute ago, HanoiVillan said: Way too early to worry about PA, which looks like it will take a very long time to report results (as expected, because republicans won a court case preventing them from counting early ballots until today, and because there's a 3 day period after election day for mail ballots to arrive) so final results won't be known until Friday, though I guess it might be clear who is prohibitively ahead before then. PA might not matter if Biden wins arizona, michigan, wisconsin, and either ne2 or me2, which I hope we might learn the results from during the day tomorrow. It goes to show how much better the Republicans system of polling is. Things appear to going just as they thought they would whilst the polls we were being shown had Biden winning Florida Texas etc etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Czechlad Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Pennsylvania hasn't counted their mail in ballots yet which apparently is heavily leaning democrat. 2.2 million mail in/absentee ballots just in Pennsylvania need to be counted. Same thing goes for Michigan and Ohio fyi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 30 minutes ago, il_serpente said: Except stopping the rot. I mean, norms aren't nothing, but I guess I allowed myself to dare to dream for something a bit more promising than Biden passing executive orders and then a permanent 6-3 supreme Court majority ruling them all unconstitutional. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keyblade Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Arizona 75% of votes in and Biden with an 8 point lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 7 minutes ago, LondonLax said: It goes to show how much better the Republicans system of polling is. Things appear to going just as they thought they would whilst the polls we were being shown had Biden winning Florida Texas etc etc. Most polling aggregators had trump winning texas, though the size of his margin is bigger than I think polling averages showed. It's still somewhat early, but it is starting to look like a systemic polling error in a lot of key states (eg trump also has a bigger than expected margin in ohio as well, which is not particularly similar demographically to texas). New Hampshire, on the other hand, came in very close to predictions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheAuthority Posted November 4, 2020 VT Supporter Share Posted November 4, 2020 Biden just jumped ahead in Virginia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 YouGov might want the world to forget about that mrp model they released tonight. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maqroll Posted November 4, 2020 Author Share Posted November 4, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Biden looks to have won Arizona. It’s going to come down to whether the rust belt states have flipped back to him or stayed Republican. In many ways they are the US version of the northern ‘Red Wall’ that went to the Tories last U.K. election. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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